FXUS62 KTBW 091708
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
108 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
SUNDAY...THEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE 
NORTHEAST STATES AND DOWN ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS THAT'S BEEN POSITIONED ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL
WEAKEN SOME BY MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ENTERING N FL.
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WITH A WARM DRY AIRMASS 
REMAINING IN PLACE. SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH 
WESTERLY BACKGROUND FLOW. ANY ISOLD SB SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF
ANY...SHOULD OCCUR TO OUR EAST. AS SUCH WILL LIMIT POPS TO 10
PERCENT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AND EXPECTING CWA TO REMAIN DRY.
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 80S BEACHES TO MID 90S INLAND.
DESPITE THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH 
CHANGE FOR MONDAY AS WELL...WITH BULK OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN WX AND
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY
AND UPPER ENERGY. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA EARLY...SO ONCE AGAIN ANY ISOLD SB SHOWERS...IF
THERE'S ADEQUATE MOISTURE...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TO OUR EAST. WILL
CAP POPS AT 10 PERCENT FOR MONDAY AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER 
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES 
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE U.S. HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. ON 
TUE THE TWO UPPER FEATURES MOVE EAST WITH THE BOUNDARY SAGGING IN 
OVER FLORIDA AND WEAKENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC 
COAST RIDGES TO THE EAST GULF. FOR WED AND THU THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES 
OVER THE GULF AND ACROSS FL WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OUT OVER 
THE ATLANTIC AS IT CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO THE GULF. BY FRI THE 
UPPER RIDGE IS EAST OF THE AREA AS A TROUGH MOVES TO THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD WITH ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA. SAT SEES DEEP 
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EAST COAST AND FL AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS 
SOUTH FL. 
THE FORECAST WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST 
ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY FOR THE MOST PART AND WEAK 
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. THESE SEA BREEZES ALONG THE 
TWO BOUNDARIES MOVING ACROSS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND MAINLY INLAND. WILL CAP POPS AT 
20 PERCENT...MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMO THAN THE GFS MOS.
&&
.AVIATION (09/18Z - 10/18Z)...VFR. CIRRUS WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND 
STRATO-CUMULUS AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT ALTO-CUMULUS. SW WINDS IN 
THE 9-11KT RANGE BECOME WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN 
COLLAPSE BACK TO VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS 
FROM OVER TAMPA BAY TO SOUTH FL BY SUN MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST TO 
WEST WINDS BEGINNING AROUND 14Z.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE HIGH THAT'S OVER THE 
WATERS NOW IS REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH WITH PRES GRAD REMAINING 
WEAK. WINDS MAY INCREASE A LITTLE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD 
WITH A SHIFT TO E-NE...BUT WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS STILL EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. 
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LITTLE CHANGE IN FIRE WX CONDITIONS NEXT DAY OR SO 
WITH NEAR-CRITICAL RH VALUES FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. 
LOWEST RH WITH LONGEST DURATIONS WILL REMAIN EAST OF I75. RFW 
REMAINS POSTED TODAY FOR POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  88  72  88 /   5  10  10  10 
FMY  70  91  70  91 /  10  10  10  10 
GIF  70  92  71  93 /  10  10  10  10 
SRQ  68  90  68  89 /   5  10  10  10 
BKV  59  91  61  91 /   5  10  10  10 
SPG  72  89  74  91 /   5  10  10  10 
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR HIGHLANDS-POLK.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...17/PETRO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE