FXUS62 KMHX 100125
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
925 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR THROUGH MID WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 915 PM SATURDAY...UPDATE SENT TO REMOVE WATCH AND LOWER POPS. KEPT A 20 
POP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS A 
FEW SHRA WEST OF THE AREA MOVE EAST. ALSO MADE A FEW MINOR 
ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD AND SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS. COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN 
BEHIND IT. PLEASANT TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 
LOW/MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST 
SUNDAY MORNING USHERING IN AN AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY WILL BE NIL WITH TEMPS A BIT COOLER...RANGING 
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 80. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MUCH MORE 
COMFORTABLE...DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOL POOL 
ALOFT WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND LEAD TO SOME MID-LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS 
MINS DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO SET UP BY EARLY 
MONDAY WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF 
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. 
WENT WITH CHC POPS WITH HIGHEST IN SRN SECTIONS THRU THE DAY ON 
MONDAY. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS 
MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. NEXT WEATHER MAKER 
WILL BE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS 
AND HPC GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS SHOWING A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON 
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HPC HOLDING THINGS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WENT 
WITH A BLEND OF THIS SOLUTIONS AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST 
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. 
WHILE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEY
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY WEEK'S END.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM SATURDAY...BOW ECHO COMPLEX HAS DIMINISHED AFTER
CROSSING INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST OF I95. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. 
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY JUST TO THE SOUTH...AND AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 915 PM SATURDAY...HAD TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 10 PM. LOOKS LIKE WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KT IN THESE AREAS SO WILL LET ADVISORIES
EXPECT THERE AT 10 PM. FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND WINDS CONTINUE TO
GUST TO 25 KT SO WILL HANG ON TO THE ADVISORY A LITTLE LONGER AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE THIS ADVISORY CAN BE
DISCONTINUED BEFORE IT EXPIRATION TIME OF 06Z.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
AS WINDS CONTINUE SW 20-25 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT. THE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER THE COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS AFTER 06Z. SEAS WILL TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 12Z GFS/NAM IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY AND WENT CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND ACCORDING TO OPC. WENT 
CLOSE TO HPC SOLUTION LATER IN THE WEEK AS THEY SHOW NEXT COLD FRONT 
MOVING A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS RESULTING IN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE
AND WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET LATE THIS EVENING. NO CHANGE TO
THE HEADLINES ON THE PAMLICO AND WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
CONDITIONS THERE WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE EXITING
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...BECOMING STATIONARY AROUND
THE GA/SC BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREDOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS RANGING FROM NORTH TO EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA