FXUS62 KKEY 100238
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1038 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE KEY WEST EVENING UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION REVEALED A MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND A MORE UNSTABLE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STRATIFICATION.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINED...AND A LAYER OF
DEEP AND VERY DRY AIR WAS BASED NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE BEGINNING AT
1500FT ABOVE GROUND. THE UPSHOT IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE LOCALLY IS
STILL QUITE UNFAVORABLE FOR CUMULUS CONVECTION...AND OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM THIS WITH NO RAIN ON RADAR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ABOVE. 
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS UNDERGONE LITTLE CHANGE IN
POSITION OR INTENSITY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND MESOSCALE
CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS WELL. WE
ARE ALREADY SEEING FRESHENING BREEZES AT THE REEF LIGHT STATIONS AS
EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT AS OLD
BAHAMIAN AND CUBAN CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW REACHES OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MARINE ZONES.
FORECASTS NEED LITTLE ADJUSTMENT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEYS ISLAND TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH 
SUNDAY. ONLY A FEW SHALLOW CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED AOA FL025 AT ANY 
TIME. LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST SURFACE BREEZES WILL BACK A LITTLE 
TOWARDS THE EAST TONIGHT AND FRESHEN A BIT AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER 
THE MAINLAND DISSIPATES. ON SUNDAY THE HEAT LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER 
THE MAINLAND AGAIN WHICH WILL PERTURB THE RIDGE AND VEER WINDS 
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS THEY RELAX.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......WAH
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST