FXUS61 KOKX 092022
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS DOWN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL PA NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
NY. THE AREA OF STORMS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE INDIVIDUAL
CELLS CONTINUE TO BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE IMPACT OF THE
STRONG SHEAR (70 KT BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON 19Z LAPS
ANALYSIS) BASED ON RADAR PRESENTATION. PRIMARILY HAVE ISOLATED
CELLS...BUT THIS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE BOW ECHOES/SQUALL LINES
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NAM/GFS/RUC ALL BRING PRECIP IN TO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY AROUND 22Z...CONSISTENT WITH RADAR
TIMING OF THE LINE INTO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY BETWEEN 2130 AND
22Z. THE KEY TO IMPACT TO THE AREA IS THE EXTENT OF BACK BUILDING
TO THE SW. NOTING IT HAS BEEN OCCURRING AT A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
RATE...AND THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH A PRE-
EXISTING BOUNDARY (PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH) AND CURRENTLY 600-800
J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST TO GO UP TO 1250-1750 J/KG CAPE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH)...AGREE WITH MODEL IDEA
OF EXPANSION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE S/E AS BACK
BUILDING CONTINUES. FORTUNATELY BEST DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO N...SO
FROM A COVERAGE PERSPECTIVE ONLY FEEL PRUDENT WITH CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT. (AS THINGS EVOLVE COULD SEE UPPING
POPS LATER ON AS EXACT EVOLUTION OF THINGS BECOMES CLEARER).
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS IS ACROSS
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/NYC METRO/INTERIOR CT ZONES WHERE HAVE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. PRIMARILY EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
WITH ANY STORM...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
STRONG SHEAR IS PRODUCING EHI INDICES OF OVER 3...WHICH SUGGEST
TORNADIC POTENTIAL AS WELL...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  
OVER SE AREAS MARINE LAYER WILL FORCE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
ELEVATED AND HELP LIMIT IMPACT OF ANY WINDS MIXING DOWN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST
OVERNIGHT.
FOR LOWS USED BLEND MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON SUNDAY...SHOULD STAY SUB-ADVISORY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS
STRONG LOW TO THE NE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
REGION...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH WNW-NW FLOW
ALOFT...SPELLING A DRY PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  COLDEST AIR
ALOFT STAYS TO N...SO SUNDAY SHOULD WARM INTO UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S
(WENT WITH WARMER MAV GUIDANCE TO REFLECT MIX DOWN FROM 800 MB).
OTHERWISE HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MAV/MET BLEND.
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE WITH PASSAGE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AND DRY 
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY 
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS A 
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY DUE WITH COOLER OCEAN TEMPS. A 
SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE 
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. POPS INCREASE TO 
HIGH END CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DECREASE FRIDAY BEHIND THE 
FRONT. 
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY. 
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW VSBYS AND FOG HAVE DISSIPATED AT ALL THE AREA
TERMINALS...HOWEVER SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY BROKEN OR OVERCAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE AREA TERMINALS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SET OFF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE BETWEEN 20Z
TO 00Z WITH SCATTERED MVFR...TO LOCALLY IFR...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. BECAUSE TIMING AND AREAL IMPACT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WILL ONLY GO WITH A CB GROUP.
THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z...WITH CLEARING 
SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 
30KT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DIMINISH SUNDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. VFR MON THROUGH WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE SCA UP OVER ALL WATERS FOR GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS COULD STAY UP ON OCEAN WATERS
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW FOCUSING ON GUSTS (HIGHEST
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE)...AND WILL TWEAK SCA END TIME AS IMPACT ON
SEAS BECOMES CLEARER (WEST WIND IS HARDEST TO GET/KEEP SCA LEVEL
SEAS OVER AREA WATERS). OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN WITH OCEAN SWELLS EXPECTED TO BE 3 FT OR LESS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT...WITH SOUTH SWELLS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SMALL CRAFT 
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR JUST AHEAD...AND THEN AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
WINDS AND SEAS SUB SCA FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY
STRONGER CELLS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING (NOTING RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION). AFTER TONIGHT...SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS AND NEAR/SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/BS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT