FXUS61 KCLE 092333
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
733 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
USHERED IN SOME MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WINDS INCREASED
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE COOLER AIR ALLOWED THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE CREATING SOME PRETTY GUSTY WIND
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
THE COLD FRONT TO THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND
ALLOW A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DECREASED TO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
THESE LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. COULD STILL SEE
A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. SO WITH THAT
SAID WE WILL DROP THE WIND ADVISORY. 
SINCE WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DECREASE WE HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO DIURNAL TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BIG TOPIC OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE THREAT FOR
FROST SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
IN THE MEAN TIME...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS COOL AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE DAY. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. 
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST. DEW POINTS FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S THERE AND THIS COULD BRING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOWER TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS WILL BE THE RESULT OF DRAINAGE WINDS SETTLING THE
COLDER AIR INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. I INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
AREAS OF FROST FOR THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW BUT KEPT IT OUT OF THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.
BASICALLY THE SAME SCENARIO SETS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH MAY HELP TO PROTECT THOSE
AREAS FROM THE FROST THREAT. THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHEAST
AND I THINK EVEN THE LAKE SHORE IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WILL SEE A POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS WELL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO
RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
DOING REALLY WELL OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IN THE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT AND WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THOSE NUMBERS IN THIS COOL
PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS ALL EXTENDED 
MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE 
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY 
AFTERNOON SHOWER NEAR TOLEDO/FINDLAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE 
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY 
EXACT TIMING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE BUT IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THINGS 
WILL BE DRYING OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE 
THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPS LOOK ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. SOME MODERATION LIKELY 
ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST COAST AND RETURN 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA WITH GENERALLY MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE WEST AND
MVFR ACROSS THE EAST...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROF. EXPECT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST TO RECOVER TO VFR
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES SOUTHEAST. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE
TO RETURN TO MVFR CIGS NEAR DAWN BUT EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. 
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES HAVE BEEN DROPPED ON LAKE ERIE AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. WAVES ON THE LAKE WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO DROP OFF
AFTER THE STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SHOULD SEE WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
A COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PASS OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE TROUGH...CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE WILL
ACTUALLY IMPROVE QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
STILL SOME GUSTINESS ON SUNDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH 
WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND QUICKLY 
TURNING WESTERLY BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL PROBABLY END UP HIGH ENOUGH 
FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY BUT NO GALES EXPECTED NEXT 
WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...LEINS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LEINS/MULLEN