FXUS61 KCAR 100120
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
920 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND THEN 
THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY WEEK AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO DOWNPLAY THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA AS ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING PER LATEST LAPS
SOUNDINGS. FURTHER SOUTH FROM MLT TO BGR...CONVECTION STILL FIRING
AS WEAK LOW PRES MOVES NE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE. LATEST LTG
DETECTION SHOWING A DECENT AREA OF LTG STRIKES AND LAPS IN THIS
AREA SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY W/CAPES 300-500 J/KG W/KIS ABV 30.
HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN COMPONENT TO MONITOR AT THIS TIME. NO
REPORTS OF FLOODING ATTM. WE DID HAVE A FEW REPORTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OF PEA SIZE HAIL FROM SOME TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. 
POPS WERE ADJUSTED USING THE SREF AND GFS AND THEN ADJUSTING PER
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN DUE TO
RAIN-COOLED ATMOSPHERE. A NEW ZFP WILL GO OUT SHORTLY.
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WILL GAIN STRENGTH AS A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH
THROUGH QUEBEC MEETS UP WITH IT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND A FEW AREAS MAY HAVE A
THUNDERSTORM WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CAPES. THE SHOWERS WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS
EVENING. WILL MENTION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN JUST ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WHERE DYNAMIC
LIFT MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING. AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY AND INTENSIFIES ON SUNDAY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO
SHOWERS. COLD ADVECTION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVENT TEMPS
FROM RECOVERING MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE DEFORMATION BAND SLOWLY
DISSIPATING OVR SRN ME SUN NGT INTO MON MORN WITH RELATIVELY MINOR
AMOUNTS OF QPF. GRADUALLY CLRG SKIES SHOULD THEN PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THRU THE REGION MON AFT AND NGT AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS EWRD FROM
THE GREAT LKS AND WHAT LEFT OF THE MID LV TROF SHEARS OUT OF THE
AREA TO THE E.
AFT SOMEWHAT CHILLY CONDITIONS SUN NGT THRU MON NGT...MODELS
INDICATE WEAK RIDGING ALF BUILDING TOWARD THE FA FROM CENTRAL CAN
WITH FAIR CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUE AND CONTG
THRU WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFT ONE LAST FAIR NGT WED NGT AS THE SFC HI RETREATS OVR THE OPEN
N ATLC...WITH INCREASING BL TO 925 MB RETURN FLOW...SKIES WILL BECOME
CLDY DURING THE DAY THU AS A S/WV AND ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT APCHS
FROM THE GREAT LKS AND CNTRL CAN. WE WENT WITH CHC SHWR POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE LATE THU INTO THU NGT ATTM...WITH TSTMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN STABLE MARINE BL INFLUENCE DUE TO NEAR SLY LLVL WIND FIELD.
MOST I NOT ALL OF THE SHWRS SHOULD BE E OF THE FA BY FRI MORN AS
THE S/WV LIFTS ENE TOWARD LABRADOR AND WHATS LET OF THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE THE REGION...LEAVING A FAIR AND PERHAPS MILD START TO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR AROUND MID EVENING
UP NORTH AND LATER THIS EVENING DOWNEAST. IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM NRN TAF SITES TO DOWNEAST SITES SUN NGT INTO
MON. VFR...MSLY UNLIMITED...WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
MON NGT THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SEAS IS UP FOR LATE TONIGHT 
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE STATE. BOTH WVS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
LATE SUN NGT AND REMAIN SO THRU WED. USED THE 10 KM WNA WW3 WV HT
GUIDANCE FOR WV GRIDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR 
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN