FXUS61 KBUF 091931 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 331 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 17Z LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH ABOUT A 10 MILLIBAR RISE FALL COUPLET FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO TO WESTERN MICHIGAN. OUR BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS WHETHER THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THIS ISALLOBARIC COUPLET MOVES THROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE IS LOWER ON WIND SPEEDS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY UP WITH THIS ISSUANCE BUT SPEEDS WILL BE MARGINAL. WE WILL BE ABLE TO SHORTEN THE END TIME FOR THE ADVISORY FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE A VERY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO MINUS 2C OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET SLIPPING TO THE SOUTH OF US. WE HAVE CERTAINLY HAD OUR SHARE OF CHILLY MOTHERS DAYS AND UNFORTUNATELY THE TIMING IS BAD AGAIN THIS YEAR. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE ONLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH THE PASSING OF A FEW SHORT WAVES WE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY SO IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE COAST WILL STILL HOLD SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ENOUGH THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DIP DOWN INTO THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS...SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP THERE HOWEVER THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. THE RIDGING CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WITH THE HIGH CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FROST AWAY FROM THE LAKES/METRO AREAS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST THE AREA COMES UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH DAYTIME TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY REACHING TINO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THEN CROSSING THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY PULLING OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH A DRY FORECAST OTHERWISE. AS FOR TEMPS...THOSE GENERALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR SPREADS BACK ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN AREAS BECOMING MORE STABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR GENERALLY BUT IFR IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME AVIATION PROBLEMS ON TAKEOFFS AND LANDINGS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ON DECREASE LATER. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WILL FEATURE BKN CIGS VFR TO OCNL MVFR. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NEW YORK NEARSHORES OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NEARSHORES AND OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ON LAKE ERIE WAVES WILL EXCEED 10 FEET...ON LAKE ONTARIO THE WAVES COULD EXCEED 15 FEET. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE COAST STRONG WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ001-002- 010>012-019>021-085. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ006>008. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ020-040-041. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045- 062>065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LEVAN NEAR TERM...SAGE SHORT TERM...LEVAN LONG TERM...LEVAN AVIATION...SAGE MARINE...LEVAN