FXUS61 KBOX 092304
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT POSSIBLY
PRECEDED BY THUNDERSTORMS. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MARITIMES WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC...WE HAVE LOCALLY
EXTENDED WW 283 TO INCLUDE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS NEAR COAST.
SO FAR ONE REPORT OF 3/4 INCH HAIL IN ROWE MA...WIND DAMAGE LOOKS TO
BE MAIN THREAT WITH BOWING LINE OF STORMS CROSSING WESTERN MA RIGHT
NOW. 
REST SAME FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
125 KNOT UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...OUR ZONES
ESPECIALLY IN NH AND NW MASS ARE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION.
MENAWHILE CAPE OF 500-1000 JOULES IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NH AND
1000-1500 JOULES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO BERKSHIRE COUNTY AROUND
00Z. MEANWHILE A 40 KNOT JET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MASS
THIS EVENING. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD BUFFER ANY
INSTABILITY OVER RI AND EASTERN MASS. SO A POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN RISK BEING IN THE CT
VALLEY AND SRN NH. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
10 PM FOR FRANKLIN CO MA AND FOR CHESHIRE-HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES NH.
AREAS FARTHER SOUTHEAST MAY ALSO HAVE SOME THUNDER EARLY
TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER LINGERS AFTER THE WATCH
BUT BY BOS-PVD IT WILL BE FIGHTING THE STABLIZING INFLUENCE OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OCEAN FLOW.
COLD FROPA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD DRY OUT
AFTER THAT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE TAKEN FROM A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE QUESTION FOR THE SUNDAY FORECAT IS WIND IN THE WAKE OF A MARITIME
LOW PRESSURE AREA. PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 1 MB/HOUR ARE FORECAST.
WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXING ZONE WILL BE AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 950 MB AND
35 KNOTS AT 900 MB. THIS WOULD POINT TO 35 MPH GUSTS...POSSIBLY 40
MPH IN A FEW SPOTS. THIS DOESN/T LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD STILL CAUSE ISOLATED DOWNED LIMBS NOW THAT
THE LEAVES ARE COMING OUT.  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.
TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY AND THEN
WASH OUT OVERHEAD. WITH UPPER TROF APPROACHING...COULD SEE A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROF LINGERS ON TUESDAY. ANOMALOUSLY COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CU TO FILL IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON MAKING IT MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN SPOTS.
SAME GOES FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WE THINK THERE WILL BE EVEN A LESSER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. GFS LOOKS TOO FAST ATTM...SO
STUCK TO THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING AS OF NOW. FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOR
THE WEEKEND...LIKELY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER. THEREFORE...HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE PLACED THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THURS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS
WITH NO EXTREMES FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING IFR AND LIFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF
THIS WILL LIFT...ALTHOUGH NANTUCKET WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AT MHT AND
POSSIBLY THIS EVENING AT BAF-BDL-ORH. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS IN NH AND NORTHWEST
MASS. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD LESSEN BY 10 PM. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO WEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BY MORNING.
SUN...VFR. BUT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF
35 KNOTS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS 4-6K FT WITH SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE TUE AFTN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS BUT PROBABLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
ROUGH SEAS LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS PER LATEST BUOY REPORTS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN CONTINUED
OVERNIGHT AND EXTENDED TO INCLUDE RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. DENSE
FOG REPORTED AT NANTUCKET AIRPORT AND OVER VINEYARD SOUND. VSBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING WIND...BUT SOME FOG IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ESPECIALLY AROUND NANTUCKET AND VINEYARD SOUNDS.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDER AND
A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING OR TWO MAY
BE NEEDED EARLY TONIGHT AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH...BUT MOST
OF THE WIND SHOULD STAY ALOFT. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE FOG.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AND STRENGTHENS...THIS
WILL BRING WINDS UP WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS LIKELY. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
GALE FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME...SO THE GALE WATCH FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN
CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS DURING THE
PERIOD WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THEREFORE...MAINLY SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ230>237-250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY 
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...WTB/EKSTER
MARINE...WTB/EKSTER