Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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000 FXUS63 KGRR 310051 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 848 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2008 LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION .SYNOPSIS...(250 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY BUT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY WET WEATHER. TRICK OR TREATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S DURING FRIDAY EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(250 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) COLD FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY ON FRIDAY WITH NO REAL FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM. WENT WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...MAKING SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDS TONIGHT THAT SHOULD HOLD MINS UP NEAR THE LAKESHORE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF TO SEE IF SOME INLAND SITES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE...ALLOWING MINS TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE. ONLY OTHER POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERRUNNING SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF. KEPT SATURDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS A GOOD COMPROMISE OF ALL THE MODELS AND WOULD HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM...(1215 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... LEADING TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE WX PATTERN WILL BECOME QUITE UNSETTLED LATE IN THE WEEK. THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. IN FACT... GIVEN THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM... SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .MARINE...(250 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) KEPT GALE WARNING AND SCA GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AT SOME SITES IN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH AT LEAST MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS NORTH OF PENTWATER THIS EVENING AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. && .AVIATION...(848 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2008) VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TIME OF TAFS (00Z-00Z). && .HYDROLOGY...(250 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) NO HYDRO CONCERNS WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FROM ST JOSEPH TO PENTWATER. && $$ SYNOPSIS: OSTUNO SHORT TERM: OSTUNO LONG TERM: LAURENS MARINE: OSTUNO AVIATION: LAURENS HYDROLOGY: OSTUNO
