Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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000 FXUS63 KGRR 311714 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 115 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008 LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION .SYNOPSIS...(1158 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...(1158 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008) (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A BIT IN THE MORNING UPDATE GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. REST OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL MEAN DRY WX ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM...(322 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008) (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DEALS WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WRN PLAINS AND TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS WEAKEST WITH THE STORM AND TRACKS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE SYSTEM...NOT BRINGING IT IN UNTIL LATER THU WITH A WAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN THE TWO AND TRACKS THE FRONT THROUGH AROUND THU AM. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH MODEL IS RIGHT...I PREFER THE ECMWF AS IT IS BETWEEN THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND GFS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER DYNAMIC AS THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER FLOW EVOLVES INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. I DID MOVE UP THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO WED NIGHT GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR STREAMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MON THROUGH WED. WILL MAINTAIN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. && .MARINE...(1158 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008) WAVES AND WINDS ARE RELAXING A BIT AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES IN. WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND GO WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. && .AVIATION...(115 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008) VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A VERY SMALL RISK FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE FALLING TO BELOW 10 KTS AND TURNING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TOMORROW. && .HYDROLOGY...(322 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008) NO HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO DRY WX REGIME. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS: OSTUNO SHORT TERM: OSTUNO LONG TERM: MJS MARINE: 93 AVIATION: IOD HYDROLOGY: 93
