Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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000 FXUS63 KGRR 311950 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 350 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008 LATEST UPDATE...SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/EXTENDED/MARINE/HYDRO .SYNOPSIS...(350 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(350 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008) (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) NO REAL WEATHER ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STILL PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED TO ADD POPS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEN FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS IN GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND BEST ASCENT IS TO THE NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM...(350 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008) (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DEALS WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THE MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE FRONT AND THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING REMAINS FAR TO THE NORTH. HAVE NO PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS FEATURE. MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR STREAMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS... AND HAVE BROAD BRUSHED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. && .MARINE...(350 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008) EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. THINGS LOOK CALM OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WINDS WILL GO SOUTH AND WAVES WILL BEGIN INCREASING BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. && .AVIATION...(115 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008) VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A VERY SMALL RISK FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE FALLING TO BELOW 10 KTS AND TURNING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TOMORROW. && .HYDROLOGY...(350 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008) NO HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO DRY WX REGIME. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS: OSTUNO SHORT TERM: OSTUNO LONG TERM: IOD MARINE: OSTUNO AVIATION: IOD HYDROLOGY: OSTUNO
