Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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000 FXUS63 KGRR 281944 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 343 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTIONS BUT AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS...(343 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008) A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL FINALLY RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE PLAINS MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY AND AROUND 60 ON HALLOWEEN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY BUT IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION. && .SHORT TERM...(343 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008) (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE BIG EAST COAST LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NNW INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE AREA... BUT MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN. HAVE SCALED BACK TO JUST A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME NRN CWFA WHERE MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE DEEPER. SOME HEALTHIER SNOW BANDS IN NRN LWR MI LATER TONIGHT MAY REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CLIP THE TUSTIN/HARRISON AREAS. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY... BELIEVE ENOUGH BREAKS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD DECK WARRANT A PARTLY SUNNY FCST. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUPPORTS SKIES GOING MOSTLY SUNNY... BUT THE H8 THERMAL TROUGH DOES NOT FULLY DEPART UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FURTHER DRYING AND H8 WAA WILL LEAD TO CLEAR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIE OFF AS THE SURFACE RIDGE COMES OVERHEAD... SO PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE 20S. WOULDN/T EVEN BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS LIKE BIG RAPIDS OR LEOTA FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION... WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS EAST ON THURSDAY AND SWLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS... OUR WEATHER WILL BE COMING FROM THAT DIRECTION. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S. && .LONG TERM...(343 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008) (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A (SLIGHTLY) COOLER AIRMASS INTO OUR CWFA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL STILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL UNDERGO A MODERATING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AS WE GET INTO STRONG SSW FLOW WAA. IN FACT MAX TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO THE 60S ARE ANTICIPATED. WE WENT WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD... WITH OUR NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...(343 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008) CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT (NNW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 4 FEET OR MORE) WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... BEFORE THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE WINDS WILL GET CRANKING AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON (FROM THE SW) WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PULLING EAST. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 4 FEET OR MORE NORTH OF HOLLAND. && .AVIATION...(1225 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008) IR/VIS SAT TRENDS AND 12Z GUIDANCE 925-850 MB MEAN RH PROGS SUGGEST THE STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT GIVEN 12Z GUIDANCE PROGS OF WNW WIND ORIENTATION AND PROGGED 925-850 MB MEAN RH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS... WE NOW BELIEVE THE STRATUS DECK WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH 18Z WED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THEN... THOUGH SOME REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER STRATUS. WE HAVE LOWERED FCST WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AFTN. WITH THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE... DEEPER MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR AND SFC WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AT ABOUT 15 KTS OR LESS. && .HYDROLOGY...(343 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008) LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS SO THERE ARE NO HYDRO ISSUES/CONCERNS. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE. && $$ SYNOPSIS: MEADE SHORT TERM: MEADE LONG TERM: LAURENS MARINE: MEADE AVIATION: LAURENS HYDROLOGY: MEADE
