 International Trend Estimates of Land-Use Sequestration (without mitigation)
This section of the Web site provides information on estimates of current
and historic carbon sequestration and emission trends in the land-use
sector (primarily forestry) for key countries and regions.
The estimates provided here do not include mitigation analyses, i.e.,
they are scenarios that do not include potential activities that
could be undertaken to reduce emissions or enhance carbon uptake beyond
current or projected trends. Trend estimates of the same or similar regions
found within this section of the Web site will likely vary due to differences
in underlying methods, carbon pools, activities, and timeframe included
in the analyses.
With partial support from EPA, Woods Hole Research Center has conducted
an updated analysis of net carbon sources and sinks, aggregated at the
scale of 10 key countries and regions. These estimates are summarized
in the graphic below, are available at DOE's Carbon
Dioxide Information Analysis Center  ,
and also at the link provided here for the Tellus
journal.
Houghton,
R.A. (2003) Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the
atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850-2000. Tellus,
55B: 378-390.
In most regions of this analysis, activities included the
conversion of natural ecosystems to cultivated lands and pastures, including
shifting cultivation, harvest of wood (for timber and fuel) and the
establishment of tree plantations. In the U.S., woody encroachment and
woodland thickening as a result of fire suppression were also included.
Note that these data include an estimate for the U.S.; however,
this is not the official U.S. Government estimate, and was derived using
methods that differ from the USG greenhouse inventory methods. The official
U.S. estimates of sequestration rates in the U.S. can be found at the National
Analysis section of this Web site. The estimates by Houghton and
USG will vary due to differences in the land base, carbon pools, models
and timeframe for the analyses.
U.N.
Forestry and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
supplies much of the underlying land-use data for these carbon estimates.
Similar to the carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas inventory estimates
prepared by the U.S., other countries estimate the carbon sequestration
and emission trends on their agricultural and forestry lands in the National
Communications
submitted to the U.N. Climate Secretariat.
The National Communication estimates will likely vary from the corresponding
country or regional estimates in Houghton (2002) and in the international
mitigation studies included on this Web
site, due to differences in activities, carbon pools, land base, timeframe
and carbon estimation methods included in the analyses.
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