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Maps, Models, and Tools for Bird Conservation Planning

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results - Wood Thrush

These results are available in:
Thogmartin, W. E., and M. G. Knutson. 2006. Scaling local species-habitat relations to the larger landscape with a hierarchical spatial count model. Landscape Ecology: Online.

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results
Avian Species-of-Concern in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition Ecoregion (Bird Conservation Region 23)

Wood Thrush
Hylocichla mustelina

 

 Conservation Estate Portfolio for the Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina)

Conservation Estate Portfolio for the Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina)

Wood Thrush Predicted Relative Abundance Map

Wood Thrush Predicted Relative Abundance Map (map - click for larger scale)
Wood Thrush

Wood Thrush
AOU Code WOTH
Habitat Association broad-leaved forest
Nest Type and Location open-cup, midstory/canopy
Migration Status Neotropical
Conservation Score 22

Wood Thrush Predicted Relative Abundance Map
This map indicates predicted relative species abundance. The predicted count of any cell in the map represents the expected count if a Breeding Bird Survey route were centered on that cell.

Wood Thrush Predicted Relative Abundance Map
 

Wood Thrush Averaged Habitat Model

Explanatory Variable Scale (m) Median 95% LCL 95% UCL Variable Importance
Static Wetness Index
100
-0.246
-0.251
-0.241
0.112
Static Wetness Index
1,000
0.096
0.092
0.100
0.282
Static Wetness Index
10,000
0.022
0.020
0.025
0.276
Deciduous Forest Composition (%)
100
0.532
0.528
0.536
0.112
Deciduous Forest Composition (%)
1,000
0.554
0.549
0.559
0.416
Deciduous Forest Composition (%)
10,000
0.589
0.583
0.595
0.428
Wooded Wetland Composition (%)
1,000
0.031
0.026
0.035
0.117
Wooded Wetland Composition (%)
10,000
0.003
-0.002
0.009
0.096
Pine Forest Composition (%)
1,000
-0.095
-0.101
-0.089
0.199
Pine Forest Composition (%)
10,000
-0.086
-0.092
-0.080
0.296
Area-weighted Forest Proximity
100
0.226
0.221
0.230
0.142
Normal CAR

 
-0.425
-0.430
-0.421
1

K-L Best Subset Models

Model Explanatory Variable Scale Parameters DIC ΔDIC wi Evidence Ratios
1
 Deciduous Forest1,000
388.3
4621.50
0
0.134
1
2
 Wetness10,000, Deciduous Forest10,000, Evergreen Forest10,000
394.6
4621.72
0.22
0.120
1.12
3
 Wetness1,000, Deciduous Forest1,000, Evergreen Forest1,000, Wooded Wetland1,000
390.0
4621.77
0.27
0.117
1.14
4
 Wetness100, Deciduous Forest100
390.2
4621.85
0.35
0.112
1.19
5
 Wetness10,000, Deciduous Forest10,000, Evergreen Forest10,000, Wooded Wetland10,000
394.9
4622.16
0.66
0.096
1.39
6
 Wetness1,000, Deciduous Forest1,000, Forest Proximity100
395.6
4622.47
0.97
0.082
1.62
7
 Wetness1,000, Deciduous Forest1,000, Evergreen Forest1,000
396.9
4622.48
0.98
0.082
1.63
8
 Deciduous Forest10,000, Evergreen Forest10,000
397.1
4622.54
1.04
0.080
1.68
9
 Deciduous Forest10,000
396.3
4622.75
1.25
0.072
1.87
10
 Wetness10,000, Deciduous Forest10,000, Forest Proximity100
392.8
4623.11
1.61
0.060
2.24
Null
  
399.7
4623.71
2.21
0.044
3.02
Parameters: Effective number of parameters
DIC: Deviance Information Criterion
ΔDIC: Difference in deviance between model and best model
wi: Model weight
Evidence Ratio: Ratio of model i relative to the best model
 

Wood Thrush Population Trend Graph

Wood Thrush Population Trend Graph


* Partners-in-Flight Conservation score for PIF16
(171 KB .pdf file - requires Acrobat Reader)  

Scores range between 5 and 35, with higher scores signifying greater conservation concern. Each species is of management concern because of their rarity, declining abundance, or habitat specificity (http://www.blm.gov/wildlife/pl_16sum.htm).

Content manager: Wayne Thogmartin

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