In 2004, some 51 percent of low-socioeconomic status (SES) 12th-graders expected to earn a bachelor’s degree or attend graduate school, compared with 66 percent of middle-SES seniors and 87 percent of high-SES seniors.

In 2003–04, some 69 percent of high school seniors expected to attain a bachelor’s degree or higher (34 percent expected to attain a bachelor’s as their highest degree, while 35 percent expected to continue to graduate or professional school). Another 18 percent expected some postsecondary education but less than a bachelor’s degree (see table 23-1). The rest either expected not to go beyond high school (5 percent) or did not know (8 percent).

Students have increased their expectations for postsecondary education in the last couple of decades. Overall, the proportion who expected to attain a bachelor’s as their highest degree increased from 19 percent in 1981–82 to 34 percent in 2003–04. The percentage who expected to attend graduate school more than doubled, from 16 to 35 percent over the 22 years.

Educational expectations varied by students’ socioeconomic status (SES). In 2003–04, for example, students from middle- or high-SES families were more likely than those from low-SES families to expect to earn a bachelor’s degree as their highest degree (36 and 33 percent, respectively, vs. 29 percent). In addition, high-SES seniors were more than twice as likely as their low-SES peers to expect to attend graduate school (53 vs. 22 percent).

While expectations for attainment grew among seniors of all SES levels, the gaps between low- or middle-SES seniors and their high-SES peers decreased over the 22-year period. The proportion of low-SES seniors who expected to earn a bachelor’s degree or attend graduate school increased from 16 to 51 percent. The rate increased from 33 to 66 percent among middle-SES seniors, and from 64 to 87 percent among high-SES seniors.

Students’ expectations for attending graduate school in 2003–04 were positively related to their academic preparation and experiences, including mathematics coursetaking and proficiency, never repeating a grade, and taking college entrance examinations (see table 23-2). For example, 15 percent of seniors whose highest mathematics course was geometry or lower expected to attend graduate school, compared with 52 percent of those who studied trigonometry, precalculus, or calculus.