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Highlights of Clear Skies in Utah
- Utah sources would reduce emissions of NOx by 13% by 2020 due
to Clear Skies. SO2 and mercury emissions would remain unchanged.
- The health benefits in the West would total $8.6
billion annually ($1.6 billion under the alternative estimate)
and include approximately 1,100 fewer premature deaths (600 under
the alternative estimate) and 2,500 fewer hospitalizations/emergency
room visits each year.
Note: For the purposes of this
analysis, the West includes all states that would be affected
by the Zone 2 cap for NOx. These states are WA, OR, CA, UT,
AZ, ID, MT, WY, CO, NM, TX, OK, KS, NE, ND, and SD.
- In addition, Western states would continue to enjoy good air
quality and visibility even in the face of increasing demand for
electricity.
- Clear Skies does not significantly impact electricity prices.
With or without Clear Skies, electricity prices in the electricity
supply region that includes Utah are expected to remain below
2000 national average prices.
Clear Skies: An Innovative Approach to Improving Human Health
and the Environment
Why Clear Skies?
- Air quality has improved, but serious concerns persist.
- Utah's citizens suffer ill effects from air pollution, including
asthma attacks and premature death
- Electricity generation sector remains a major emissions source
- Very cost-effective to control the power sector, relative
to other sources
- Sources are concerned about upcoming complex and burdensome
regulations
Advantages of the Clear Skies Approach
- Guarantees significant nationwide emissions reductions -- beginning
years before full implementation
- Utah sources would reduce or hold the line on emissions
of SO2, NOx, and mercury
- Delivers dramatic progress towards achievement of critical
health and environmental goals
- Uses proven, market-based flexible approach with incentives
for innovation
- Recognizes environmental needs as well as industry constraints,
allowing industry to better manage its operations and finances
while lowering risks to the public
- Sources are projected to install pollution controls to enable
continued reliance on coal
- Increases certainty across the board for industry, regulators,
and consumers
Under Current Clean Air Act Power Plants Would Face a Complex
Set of Requirements
For a larger image, click here.
Clear Skies Sets a Firm Timeline for Emission Reductions
The existing Title IV SO2 cap-and-trade program provides
an incentive and a mechanism to begin reductions upon enactment
of Clear Skies years before regulatory action under the current
Act. |
2004: The NOx SIP call (summertime NOx cap in 19 Eastern
States + D.C.)
2008: Clear Skies NOx Phase I (2.1 million ton annual cap
assigned to two Zones with trading programs)
2010:
- Clear Skies Hg Phase I (26 ton annual cap with a national trading
program)
- SO2 Phase I (4.5 million ton annual cap with a national trading
program)
2018:
- Clear Skies NOx Phase II (1.7 million ton annual cap assigned
to two Zones with trading programs)
- Clear Skies Hg Phase II (15 ton annual cap with a national
trading program)
- Clear Skies SO2 Phase II (3.0 million ton annual cap with a
national trading program)
Clear Skies Builds Upon the Work of the WRAP
Note: Yellow
states are states involved in the WRAP voluntary emissions
reduction program.
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- Clear Skies is designed to support the WRAP goals and process;
in addition to a national constraint on SO2, the bill ensures
that the WRAP's emissions reduction goal for nine states is achieved:
- If for any reason the regional reduction goal set by the
WRAP for 2018 (271,000 tons for the power sector) is not achieved,
a separate WRAP cap-and-trade program is triggered to ensure
that the regional reductions are preserved.
- This special cap-and-trade program is based on the framework
established in the WRAP process.
- This special cap can also be triggered by 2013 if States
determine there is sufficient evidence that the target will
not be met by 2018.
The West Faces Unique Challenges
- Environmental effects of power plant emissions - including visibility
impairment and acid deposition - are broadly distributed
- Increasing ground-level ozone concentrations in national parks
- Particle-related haze in national parks and wilderness areas
- Nitrogen deposition in high elevation ecosystems (e.g., Colorado
Front Range)
- Brown clouds in major cities
- Few western non-attainment areas are due to stationary source
emissions
As the West Grows, Clear Skies Protects Human Health and the Environment
The
West Will Continue to Grow...
- Population is projected to grow more than 20% from current levels
by 2020
- Electricity demand is expected to grow more than the national
average
- More than 10% over national average in the Pacific States
- More than 30% over national average in the Mountain States
...While
the Environment Is Protected
- Clear Skies would protect air quality by lowering or halting
increases in air emissions throughout the West from today's levels:
- Prevent degradation of visibility in parks.
- Help counties remain in attainment with health-based air
quality standards, reducing the burden on state and local
governments.
- Ensure nitrogen deposition does not increase and reduce
mercury deposition
Emissions in Utah under Clear Skies
Emissions in Utah (2020):
- SO2 emissions unchanged compared to the base case
- 19% reduction in NOx emissions from 2000 levels
- Mercury emissions unchanged compared to the base case
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Emissions: Existing Clean Air Act Regulations (base case*) vs.
Clear Skies in Utah in 2010 and 2020
Sulfur dioxide
Nitrogen oxides
Mercury
Note:
The base case using IPM includes Title IV, the NOx SIP Call, NSR
settlements, and state-specific caps in CT, MA, MO, NC, NH, TX,
and WI. It does not include mercury MACT in 2007 or any other potential
future regulations to implement the current ambient air quality
standards or other parts of the Clean Air Act. Base case emissions
in 2020 will likely be lower due to state and federal regulatory
actions that have not yet been promulgated.
SO2 and NOx Emissions Reductions under Clear Skies
Note:
The base case using IPM includes Title IV, the NOx SIP Call, NSR
settlements, and state-specific caps in CT, MA, MO, NC, NH, TX,
and WI. It does not include mercury MACT in 2007 or any other
potential future regulations to implement the current ambient
air quality standards or other parts of the Clean Air Act. Base
case emissions in 2020 will likely be lower due to state and federal
regulatory actions that have not yet been promulgated. Emissions
projected for new units are not reflected.
Clear Skies Health and Air Quality Benefits in the West
By 2020, the West would receive approximately
$8.6 billion in annual health benefits from reductions in fine
particle and ozone concentrations alone due to Clear Skies.(see
note 1) |
Improve Public Health
- Reduced ozone and fine particle exposure by 2020 would result
in public health benefits of:
- approximately 1,100 fewer premature deaths each year
- approximately 800 fewer cases of chronic bronchitis each
year
- approximately 1,800 fewer non-fatal heart attacks each year
- approximately 2,500 fewer hospital and emergency room visits
each year
- Approximately 150,000 fewer days workers are out sick due
to respiratory symptoms each year
- approximately 19,000 fewer school absences each year
Reduced mercury emissions would reduce
exposure to mercury through consumption of
contaminated fish, resulting in additional,
unquantified benefits to those who eat fish from
lakes and streams in the West.
Help Maintain Health-Based Air Quality Standards (see
note 2)
- All counties in Utah are currently expected to meet the 8-hour
ozone and fine particle standards.
- Clear Skies would reduce concentrations of fine particles throughout
Utah, providing additional benefits to public health.
Reduced mercury emissions would reduce exposure to mercury through
consumption of contaminated fish, resulting in additional, unquantified
benefits to those who eat fish from lakes and streams in the West.
Clear Skies Would Provide Important Environmental Benefits in
the West
Clear Skies would produce significant visibility benefits in highly
visited national parks and wilderness areas in the West.
- Quantifiable visibility benefits in just 5 parks (Grand Canyon,
Rocky Mountain, Zion, Bryce Canyon, and Mesa Verde National Parks)
total over $300 million.
- Visibility benefits in the Grand Canyon alone are estimated
to be $100 million annually by 2020.
- Visibility improvements are also projected to improve tourism.
- In comparison to existing programs, nitrogen deposition would
decrease by 5-20% in the inter mountain West, and in some areas,
such as the Four Corners region, by up to 35%. Sulfur and mercury
deposition would not increase despite growth in electricity demand.
Click here for a larger image
Electricity Generation in Utah under Clear Skies
Current and Projected Generation by Fuel Type in Utah under
Clear Skies (GWh)
Pollution Controls:
- 85% of Utah's coal-fired generation comes from units with
advanced SO2 control equipment.
- No pollution controls are projected to be installed in
Utah under Clear Skies.
- No coal-fired units in Utah are projected to be removed
from operation as a result of Clear Skies.
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Current and Projected Coal Production for Electricity Generation
- The major generation companies in Utah include:
- PacifiCorp
- Desert Power
- Utah Municipal Power Agency
- Intermountain Power Agency
- Total coal-fired capacity in Utah is projected to be
4,340 MW in 2010
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Electricity Prices in Utah under Clear Skies
- With or without Clear Skies, retail prices in the
North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC)
WECC region (the electricity supply region that contains
Utah) are projected to increase between 2005 and 2020.
- With Clear Skies, retail prices are projected to
be approximately 0.6 - 2.6% higher between 2005 and
2020 than in the absence of the legislation.
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In 2000, the average retail electricity price in the region
that includes Utah was approximately 4.8 cents/kWh, which was
below the average national retail price of approximately
6.7 cents/kWh. |
Note: The base case using IPM includes
Title IV, the NOx SIP Call, NSR settlements, and state-specific
caps in CT, MA, MO, NC, NH, TX, and WI. It does not include mercury
MACT in 2007 or any other potential future regulations to implement
the current ambient air quality standards or other parts of the
Clean Air Act. Base case emissions in 2020 will likely be lower
due to state and federal regulatory actions that have not yet been
promulgated.
Costs and Benefits in Utah under Clear Skies
Benefits Outweigh the Costs
In Utah, Clear Skies is projected to cost approximately $10 million
annually by 2020, and $1.2 billion throughout the West, while providing
health and visibility benefits totaling approximately $95 million
in Utah and $9.5 billion throughout the West.
- The increases in production costs under Clear Skies represent
only a small percentage of total retail electricity sales revenue
in Utah.
- Retail electricity sales revenue in Utah was almost $1.1
billion in 2000.
- Adjusting these sales revenues by the same growth rate used
for the modeling of costs would result in revenues of almost
$1.7 billion annually in 2020.
Nationwide, the projected annual costs of Clear Skies (in $1999)
are $4.3 billion in 2010 and $6.3 billion in 2020; the nationwide
benefits of Clear Skies are expected to be over $113 billion annually
by 2020.
- An alternate estimate projects annual health benefits totaling
$23 billion.
Note: Costs include capital costs, fuel,
and other operation and maintenance costs (both fixed and variable)
associated with the achievement of the emissions caps in the legislation
(for example, the installation and operation of pollution controls).
These state-level production costs are estimates; they do not account
for the costs associated with the transfer of electricity across
regions, nor the costs or savings that could be associated with
allowance movement between sources.
State information based on EPA's modeling of the Clear
Skies Act of 2002 is presented here for archival reasons.
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1. An alternative methodology for calculating health-related benefits
projects approximately 600 premature deaths prevented and $1.6 billion in
health benefits each year in the West by 2020.
2. Based on 1999-2001 data for counties with
monitors that have three years of complete data.
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