Home Library Synthesis and Assessment Products Product 5.2: Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking Draft prospectus |
Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmakingDraft Prospectus for Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2 |
Note to Reviewers: See also the Federal Register notice of 12 June 2006 Also available:
In the context of this discussion, operational agencies are those who regularly provide science-based products, including short-term climate forecasts and diagnostic information, for consumption by the general public.
The respective roles of the Lead Agency and the IWG are outlined in the Guidelines for CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products.
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Supporting Federal Partners:
1. Overview1.1 IntroductionThe U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is an interagency endeavor designed to create an extensive body of scientific knowledge and associated decision support tools that can foster improved understanding and adaptation in the face of a dynamic climate system. In order to help bridge the gap between science and practical management challenges in sectors and regions that are sensitive to climate change and variability, the CCSP contributes to and participates in a range of regional and international assessment activities, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In addition to participation in broader assessment activities, the CCSP is committed to developing a series of Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAPs) that summarize the current state of scientific understanding about key issues related to climate change, variability, ecosystems and human society. Essentially, these products will communicate what is known, from a CCSP perspective, including degrees of uncertainty, about climate and its interactions with natural and socioeconomic systems in a context and format that may be useful for policymakers, resource managers, scientists and other stakeholders. In order for CCSP research outputs/findings (including, but not limited to the SAPs) to be both scientifically accurate and useful to decision makers, scientific uncertainties must be acknowledged and clearly defined. Given the importance of providing clear information concerning uncertainties associated with the application of climate science and information in decision making, the CCSP is developing a Synthesis and Assessment Product (5.2) that explicitly focuses on best practices for characterizing, communicating and incorporating scientific uncertainty. This prospectus outlines the plans for the development of SAP 5.2. 1.2 Topic and ContentUncertainty factors into large and small decisions made by individuals every day throughout society. The choice to bring an umbrella to work, take a new job, or to move to a new neighborhood all involve some degree of uncertainty, with various levels of risk and opportunity that must also be considered. In most cases, the uncertainties inherent in personal decisions are not treated as explicitly and systematically as they might be. Unlike personal decision-making, building an understanding of potential climate change impacts requires a synthesis of science, practical resource management strategies and an anticipation of the requirements for the long-term health and welfare of human society and the environment. This complex analysis creates a demand and opportunity for examining the way scientific uncertainty is articulated, communicated, and considered in decision making. The Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program defines uncertainty as:
Uncertainty concerning the nature and impacts of climate change and variability is the inevitable consequence of the necessary synthesis of various types of data of varying degrees of quality with models possessing varying degrees of skill in simulating natural processes and human behavior. Scientists work to minimize uncertainty in their projections by identifying its nature and source and, then by undertaking focused research to reduce the margin between what is known and what is not known. Various factors can complicate the accurate formulation and communication of uncertainty in climate change projections including the definition of concepts, terminology, and scale (Moss and Schneider, 2000). The level of certainty in the projections of climate change and its effects has emerged as a central issue in the public discourse, reinforcing the need to evaluate current methods and to define best practices for assessing uncertainty. The scientific community – which includes researchers from academia, government, and the private sector, as well as scientific and operational agencies - are looked to by policymakers, decision makers, and the media for “answers” (or insights) about trends, rates, impacts, and adaptation options related to climate change. Meeting these societal demands, and providing effective support for decisions in sectors and regions affected by climate change and variability, requires a better understanding and articulation of the nature and implications of uncertainty to enable more informed policy and management decisions. Essentially, researchers, technical experts and decision makers must develop a functional degree of shared understanding and language regarding uncertainty in order to facilitate a constructive dialogue between those who produce, and those who would utilize scientific information. The climate research community has taken steps in recent years to explain the nature of uncertainty in their assessment efforts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the largest international climate assessment effort, recognized the need for a more formal, decision analysis based treatment of uncertainty in Chapter 11 of its report on Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change (McBean et al., 1995). In response to this need, recommendations for reporting uncertainty were developed for the authors of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the ongoing Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). 1.3 Audience and Intended UseSAP 5.2 is designed to address two distinct purposes and audiences. One purpose of the report is to synthesize and communicate the current state of understanding about the characteristics and implications of uncertainty related to climate change and variability to an audience of policymakers with an interest in developing a fundamental understanding of the issue. Such an understanding could contribute sound scientific underpinnings to an informed discourse about the nature and implications of climate change and variability. SAP 5.2 will contribute insight about the nature of uncertainty that is fundamental to a priority issue identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan: an understanding of how the methods and capabilities for societal decision making under conditions of complexity and uncertainty about global environmental variability and change can be enhanced. An increased awareness and understanding of the characteristics of scientific uncertainty as applied to climate is a critical step in this effort. The second purpose is to provide recommendations for best practices for characterizing, analyzing and communicating uncertainty for scientists, science managers, and technical operational entities involved in conducting research and assessments, and producing climate information in the context of decision support, based on a thorough, state-of-the-art assessment of the current state of understanding. This latter audience includes, but is not limited to, the ongoing and future CCSP synthesis and assessment effort. The potential stakeholders of the CCSP synthesis and assessment product effort are broad and diverse, consisting of resource managers and planners across various geographical and institutional scales, policymakers, and the national and international scientific and operational communities. Two segments of this broader stakeholder community are intended as the primary audience for SAP 5.2: a) decision makers and policy makers with a desire to better understand the nature of uncertainty as a foundation for interpreting scientific information regarding climate change and variability, and to apply this knowledge in considering adaptation needs and options; and b) the scientific and operational communities involved in producing and disseminating scientific information and products. Given the intended audiences, it is anticipated that SAP 5.2 may be used as a) a relatively sophisticated summary and assessment of the state-of-the-art understanding of the characteristics of uncertainty and the illumination of some potential approaches to decision making under such uncertainty; b) decision analysis and social science-based guidelines for ongoing and future CCSP synthesis, assessment and decision support activities and for researchers participating in broader assessment activities, such as the IPCC. 1.4 Key QuestionsSAP 5.2 will address the following questions in the context of climate change and variability:
2. Agency Contact InformationThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the lead agency for SAP 5.2, supported by the Department of Energy (DOE), the Department of Transportation (DOT), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF). Together, these agencies constitute the interagency working group (IWG) responsible for overseeing the production of SAP 5.2. Contact information for the agency personnel involved in this product is listed below.
3. SAP 5.2 Lead and Contributing AuthorsAs articulated in the Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products, lead and contributing authors of SAPs are expected to be individuals with recognized technical expertise in a field relevant to the specific question(s) addressed by the SAPs, as evidenced by publication record and/or pertinent achievements and contributions to their field. Authors can be drawn from the international community of experts. The authors of SAP 5.2 are well-respected scientific experts, who are solely responsible for the content of the report that will be submitted to the CCSP for review. He is responsible for selecting the contributing authors for the report. They are all considered to be experts in the characterization and treatment of uncertainty, and represent various perspectives from throughout the community; biographical information is included in this document as an appendix. The CCSP research portfolio includes a suite of interdisciplinary centers dedicated to Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU)in the context of climate change and variability. The DMUU centers are explicitly designed to conduct research and develop tools that can be utilized to increase understanding and adaptation options associated with the risks and uncertainties presented by climate change and variability. Five DMUU centers were established in 2004 through a highly competitive peer review process managed by the National Science Foundation (NSF). Given this substantial investment in decision support oriented studies of uncertainty, SAP 5.2 will capitalize on the work and expertise of the DMUU centers. The lead author identified for SAP 5.2 is associated with one of these centers, the DMUU Climate Decision Making Center. The National Science Foundation is supporting the lead and contributing authors for SAP 5.2 through a cooperative agreement with this DMUU Center. Lead AuthorDr. Granger Morgan, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, and leader of the DMUU Climate Decision Making Center Contributing AuthorsDr. Hadi Dowlatabadi, Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia Dr. Max Henrion, Lumina Decision Systems Dr. David Keith, Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering and Department of Economics, University of Calgary Dr. Robert Lempert, The RAND Corporation Dr. Thomas Wilbanks, Environmental Science Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory 4. Stakeholder InteractionsCCSP synthesis and assessment products will be developed in consultation with a diverse group of stakeholders. The team of individuals identified as SAP 5.2 authors is composed of highly active members of the scientific community who are engaged in the current discourse related to uncertainty in the context of climate change and variability. They interact frequently on this topic with their scientific colleagues at workshops, conferences and advisory panels as well as decision makers, seeking and receiving feedback on specific theories, approaches and conclusions. The team will continue to do so, and will seek specific opportunities to vet this material by participating in conferences, workshops and other forums that present an opportunity for obtaining feedback from members of the broader stakeholder community, including but not limited to, the lead authors of other CCSP SAPs. In addition, options for including the perspective of decision makers in the expert review phase of this process will be explored. Finally, the interagency working group charged with overseeing the development of SAP 5.2 will make a concerted effort to inform the broader scientific and decision making communities of the opportunity for input presented by the public review of this prospectus and the actual product (see below for information regarding the review process). 5. Drafting Process, Including Materials to be Used in Preparing the ProductSupport for SAP 5.2 is provided by an NSF award to the lead author, Dr. Granger Morgan of the Carnegie Mellon Climate Decision Making Center. The SAP 5.2 interagency working group (members identified in section 2 above) will determine through the creation of this prospectus (including the consideration of comments received during the public review period) the overall scope, focus, and balance of the product. The IWG will not participate in the drafting of the actual report; public review and expert review comments will be handled by the lead author and his team. The lead author is responsible for the initial draft as a basis for further development by the team of contributing authors. The content and focus of this report will be discussed by the lead author with members of the scientific and decision making communities throughout the drafting process; this feedback will be incorporated in the progressive drafts, along with input provided through the formal public and expert review phases described below. Authors will draw upon peer-reviewed scientific literature in the drafting process. 6. ReviewAs the lead agency, NOAA will develop and oversee a review process that satisfies the SAP guidance issued by the CCSP, and is consistent with the Information Quality Act and the Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB’s) Final Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review (December 2004). The Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products essentially requires three levels of review for each SAP: a) technical expert review; b) a 45 day public review; and c) a CCSP and National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) review prior to release of the final document. The review process outlined below is consistent with the requirements identified above. As the lead agency for this project, NOAA will submit a draft of SAP 5.2 to the National Academies’ National Research Council (NRC) for expert scientific review. The following questions are likely to be addressed in the review:
The findings of the NRC review will be posted on the CCSP web site following completion. The lead author, assisted by his team, will consider and incorporate the findings of the NRC review as they deem appropriate. NOAA will post the revised draft for a public review period of 45 days. Comments will be considered by the lead author and the contributing team of authors, and incorporated based on their scientific judgment. The author’s comments to the NRC review will be posted on the CCSP website. NOAA will submit the revised draft to the CCSP Interagency Committee for approval. If the CCSP Interagency Committee concludes that further revision is necessary, their comments will be provided to the lead author, who will then consider and address these comments according to their scientific judgment. If the CCSP approves the draft product, they will submit it to the NSTC for review. Clearance will require the concurrence of all members of the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources. The sequence and potential timing of the review process is outlined in Section 9 of this prospectus. 7. Related ActivitiesSeveral key activities with an explicit or implicit focus on the characterization and communication of uncertainty in the context of climate change and variability are currently underway. The SAP 5.2 effort is aware of, and in some cases, connected to these efforts through the participation of the lead and contributing authors. Relevant activities include the following:
8. CommunicationsThroughout the process, the agency representatives are available to answer questions regarding the development and production of SAP 5.2. As the lead agency, NOAA will manage the production and release of the completed product, utilizing a standard format established by the CCSP. The final report will be available in a PDF version, as well as in a hardcopy. The electronic information, and information about obtaining a hardcopy of the document, will be available on the CCSP web site. 9. TimelineA timeline for SAP 5.2 is currently under development. Appendix A:
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