While bachelor’s degree completion rates have been steady over time, the likelihood of still being enrolled with no degree at the end of 5 years has increased.

Recent analyses of data based on high school seniors in 1972, 1982, and 1992 suggest that U.S. students’ access to college has increased over the last three decades, but rates of completion have not changed (Barton 2002; Adelman 2004). This indicator compares students (regardless of age) who enrolled in postsecondary education for the first time in 1989–90 with those who began in 1995–96. Among students who started at a 4-year college or university, 53 percent of both cohorts had completed a bachelor’s degree at the end of 5 years. However, the later cohort was more likely than the earlier one to have no degree but still be enrolled (17 vs. 13 percent) and also less likely to have left postsecondary education without a degree (20 vs. 24 percent) (see table 19-1). The remaining students either earned an associate’s degree or vocational certificate or were enrolled at a 2-year or less-than-2-year institution.

Among students who first enrolled in a public 2-year college, the likelihood of being enrolled in a 4-year institution at the end of 5 years also increased (from 5 to 10 percent). That is, for students who started at a community college, those who began in 1995–96 were more likely than their counterparts who started in 1989–90 to be still enrolled and working toward a bachelor’s degree after 5 years. At the same time, however, community college students who first enrolled in 1995–96 were less likely than their peers who first enrolled in 1989–90 to have acquired a vocational certificate (9 vs. 13 percent).

Considering all students, regardless of where they started, the likelihood of being enrolled in a 4-year institution at the end of 5 years increased for students at all income levels, for both men and women, and for White students (see table 19-2). A similar apparent increase for other racial/ethnic groups could not be confirmed statistically. At the same time, no measurable differences were detected in the bachelor’s degree completion rates for any of these groups. In other words, although students in the later cohort were not more successful than those in the earlier cohort in earning a bachelor’s degree within 5 years, they were more likely to be still enrolled in a 4-year institution if they had not completed their undergraduate education.