HOME>
Expert
Assessments>
Hazards Assessment>
Hazards
Briefing>
Hazards Assessment Verification
|
|
Hazards Assessment Verification for Severe Storms |
|
This page updated on 09/20/2008 |
|
|
The Contingency Table |
|
|
Where A=Number of Correct Forecasts, |
B=Number of Incorrect Forecasts, |
C=Number of Times Event Occured when no Forecast was Made, |
D=Number of Times Event did not Occur when no Forecast was
Made |
|
|
Contingency Table for Latest Forecast (Made on:20080905): |
|
|
Cumulative Contingency Table: |
|
|
Hit Rate = (a+d)/(a+b+c+d)
|
Threat Score = (a)/(a+b+c) |
|
|
|
Probability of Detection = (a)/(a+c) |
False Alarm Rate = (b)/(a+b) |
|
|
|
Bias = (a+b)/(a+c) |
|