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CARMA
5.0 (CAse-based Range Management Advisor)
Summary of CARMA's Internal Workings
CARMA produces advice about the most economical responses to rangeland grasshopper infestations in the western U.S. CARMA also includes a prototype cropland advising module. States specifically handled are Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota and Wyoming. CARMA does this by predicting the proportion of available forage that will be consumed by grasshoppers and estimating the economic returns of various treatment options. The information required to make the forage loss prediction includes the date, the infestation location on a map, the range value and infestation history of the location, the number of grasshoppers per square yard, the grasshopper type and age distribution, the relative recent precipitation and temperatures, and the total area infested (including adjacent neighbors' lands).
Summary of CARMA's Internal Workings
CARMA is a case-based reasoning system that gives advice about the most economical responses to grasshopper infestations based on roughly 140 combined years of entomologist expertise. Tests have shown that CARMA's grasshopper forage consumption predictions, which are the core of determining the best course of action, very closely approximate the predictions of the experts. CARMA gives advice by comparing the current infestation to previous infestations (i.e., cases) and adapting the recommendations of the experts to fit the current infestation. Infestation probabilities for your location and the effectiveness of each treatment type are used to predict the future probabilities of re-infestation for each treatment type, and statistical methods are used to predict the range of economic benefits for each treatment option. Finally, a set of rules are used to select the possible treatments.
To download the latest version of CARMA 5.0 (which may also be run in a web-based version) or to find out more information on CARMA, please visit the CARMA website at: http://carma.unk.edu/
For questions regarding the performance of CARMA contact:
Professor John D. Hastings
Department of Computer Science
University of Nebraska-Kearney
Otto Olsen 116
Kearney, NE 68849
Tel: (308)865-8365
Email: hastingsjd@unk.edu
