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Environmental Futures
"The phonograph is of no commercial
value."
-Thomas Edison, 1880
"Anyone who thinks the ANC is going
to run
South Africa is living in
cloud cuckoo land."
-Margaret Thatcher, 1987
The future is complex, uncertain, and unpredictable. Our world is changing rapidly: advances in technology, population growth, economic expansion, globalization, and other drivers of change are shaping a future that may bear little resemblance to our world today. Futures Analysis represents an effort to think ahead - to anticipate and plan for future conditions and events. Organizations use futures analysis to plan strategically and to position themselves advantageously for situations that may occur.
For many years, our nation's approach to environmental protection has been largely "reactive." In general, we have tended to establish agencies and institutions, pass laws, and craft regulations to ameliorate past pollution or to address problems which are already threatening human health and the environment or prompting public concern. Environmental policy has not generally been designed to focus on the environmental challenges which may lie ahead.
Futures analysis can contribute this forward-looking perspective by making an effort to anticipate future environmental issues and plan strategically to avoid problems, rather than respond to them after the fact. For example, by 2010, world population is expected to reach nearly 7 billion, with the U.S. population approaching 300 million and aging rapidly. This dramatic population growth is likely to have significant implications for human health and the environment. Similarly, as economic developments and advances in technology and communications make our world "smaller," global and cross-media aspects of environmental protection become more important.
An awareness of the environmental consequences of future social, economic, and technological changes can help EPA leaders make better-informed, strategic decisions about the Agency's work in a rapidly changing world. By considering such "drivers" as changing population patterns, globalization, and new technologies, futures analysis can help to identify potential issues for further evaluation and provide information that managers can use to improve existing strategies and consider alternative approaches. It can help them anticipate and plan for the next generation of environmental problems and build into their planning the flexibility needed to accommodate uncertainties. In addition, as old problems are resolved, considering environmental futures can help Agency leaders construct a new agenda. Looking towards the future encourages thoughtful strategic planning and motivates an organization to move on to new issues and challenges