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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007               
0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   8(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   6( 6)   9(15)  15(30)   4(34)   X(34)   X(34)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  1  11(12)  15(27)  11(38)   4(42)   X(42)   X(42)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  1   7( 8)   8(16)   5(21)   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 211N  950W 34 27  21(48)   6(54)   2(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 12 211N  950W 50  2   4( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 12 211N  950W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 209N  955W 34 16  28(44)  11(55)   2(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 24 209N  955W 50  1   6( 7)   5(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 24 209N  955W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 209N  963W 34  5  27(32)  14(46)   5(51)   2(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 36 209N  963W 50  X   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 36 209N  963W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 210N  975W 34  X  11(11)  15(26)  11(37)   4(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 48 210N  975W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 48 210N  975W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 215N  995W 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)  13(17)   6(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 72 215N  995W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 72 215N  995W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     45      50      55      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:51 GMT