Short jaw cisco from Lake Superior. - FWS photo

Chuck Bronte, Green Bay Fishery Resources Office, attended a workshop in La Crosse, Wisconsin, on structured decision making as a first step in determining if the short-jaw ciscoe should be protected under the Endangered Species Act. 

Bronte served as one of a group of experts that were gathered to begin the process of capturing expert opinion on the status of the species using a Bayesian Belief Network, a tool that is used to determine the probability of stated outcomes based on little quantitative information. 

In addition to this analysis, a simple population model was constructed and a time series technique called Count-based Population Viability Analysis, were also used to estimate the probability of extinction of the species within the next 80 years.  These techniques will be refined and further developed to make a an informed recommendation on whether to list the short-jaw cisco on the Endanger Species List. 

The short jaw cicoe was historically part of an assemblage of deep-water ciscos that inhabited most of the Great Lakes, but has since disappeared completely from Lakes Erie and Michigan, and is now rare in Lakes Huron and Superior.