Figure 1. Fire history on Kanuti NWR, 1950-2005.

Figure 2. Fire management options used in the study area, Kanuti NWR.

Researchers predict that the warming climate will increase fire frequency and change the composition and distribution of plant communities which will influence fire behavior and affect land managers’ decisions about burning options.  Since 1950, 70 percent of Kanuti Refuge has burned, 60 percent having burned since 1990.  Staff want to increase fire suppression within 367,075 acres in the center of the Refuge to conserve biodiversity and ensure subsistence opportunities.  This area is important caribou winter range containing old-growth lichen habitat.  In 2006, the Refuge changed fire management boundaries to protect lichen-rich areas.  Kanuti Refuge worked with University of Alaska Fairbanks researchers Dr. Scott Rupp and Mark Olson to model effects of increasing fire suppression with predicted climatic change.  Rupp and Olson used the Boreal ALFRESCO model to estimate how vegetation might change on Kanuti Refuge until 2100.  They also modeled changes if all fires are fought, regardless of when they begin.  

Modeling hypothetical fire results showed that the availability of caribou winter habitat varied depending on the fire management options and climate model used.  Four different climate models were used with caribou winter habitat defined as spruce stands over 80 years old.  All models predicted a warmer, drier climate varying by degrees among models.  Winter habitat available was predicted to be low from 2020 to 2050 since large portions of the Refuge recently burned and are in early post-fire successional stages.  The model shows winter habitat would increase after 2050 under all management scenarios with 13 to 18 percent more caribou habitat resulting from modified management rather than the limited and modified suppression in effect before 2006.  If half the area was under full management, the model estimated an increase of 27 to 38 percent, which is more habitat than under pre-2006 fire management options.