How are floods predicted? <!-- water, hazards -->
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Frequently Asked Questions

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USGS Frequently Asked Questions

Question: How are floods predicted?

Answer:

Floods are a dangerous hazard throughout the world, and most people underestimate the power of flood waters. On average, in the United States, about 165 people are killed and about $2 billion of damage occurs each year.

Several types of data can be collected to assist hydrologists predict when and where floods might occur. The first is monitoring the amount of rainfall occurring on a realtime basis. Second, monitoring the rate of change in river stage on a realtime basis can help indicate the severity and immediacy of the threat. Third, knowledge about the type of storm producing the moisture, such as duration, intensity and areal extent, is valuable for determining possible severity of the flooding. And fourth, knowledge about the characteristics of a river's drainage basin, such as soil-moisture conditions, ground temperature, snowpack, topography, vegetation cover and impermeable land area, can help to predict how extensive and damaging a flood might become.

The National Weather Service collects and interprets rainfall data throughout the United States and issues flood watches and warnings as appropriate. The National Weather Service uses statistical models and flood histories to try to predict the results of expected storms. The USGS maintains a network of streamflow-gaging stations throughout the country for which the discharge and stage are monitored. Flood estimation maps are generally produced by estimating a flood with a certain recurrence interval or probability and simulating the inundation levels based on flood plain and channel characteristics. More information on floods is available from the USGS Hydrologic Information Center at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hic and from the USGS national home page at http://water.usgs.gov. For more information on real-time flood monitoring, please see USGS Fact Sheet FS-209-95, which is available on-line at http://water.usgs.gov/public/wid/FS_209-95/mason-weiger.html.

Source of this FAQ:
http://ut.water.usgs.gov/faq/faq.html

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