000
FXUS61 KPHI 091003
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED NEAR
MILWAUKEE EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND IT
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE THIS
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY WERE PASSING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.  WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR REGION UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK.  ONCE THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM PASS OFF THE
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, THE SKY SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY.

AT 430 AM, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION EXTENDED
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SUSSEX COUNTY, NEW JERSEY TO AROUND PATERSON AND
ELIZABETH, THEN OVER TO NEW YORK CITY.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR TODAY.
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE 800 AM TO 200 PM
TIME FRAME.  EVEN FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE DECREASING AS WE SHOULD BE
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE, THE
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO VIRGINIA SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST.

THE WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME RATHER ROBUST TODAY AND THEY
SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, BRINGING DRY AIR OVER
OUR REGION.  THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH WE HAVE MENTIONED SOME FACTORS THAT ARE WORKING AGAINST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, IT
SEEMS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN OUR
REGION.  GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING CAPES UP AROUND 1500 J/KG.  AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION.  WE WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN SIX COUNTIES.

SPC HAS CUT BACK ON ITS SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER OUR REGION.  BASED ON
THEIR EARLY MORNING FORECAST, ONLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF SUSSEX
COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY AND FAR NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY ARE IN THEIR
AREA OF CONCERN.  THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN SPC`S
OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS.  AS A RESULT OF SPC`S FORECAST
AND OUR RELATIVELY LOW POPS, WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS OR IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION FOR TODAY.  WITH THE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
800 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.  ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE OVER BY THAT TIME.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY
GOOD PUSH OF COOL DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE ARE EXPECTING
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ANTICIPATED
FOR SUNDAY.

THE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S
THROUGHOUT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  SOME UPPER
30S READINGS ARE POSSIBLE UP NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEATURE A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS.  THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY.  FOR THE LATE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK, THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER,
WITH THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS THEY SEEM TO BE COMING IN LINE WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKING PLACE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE REGION AND THERE WERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SKIES CLEARED ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO FORM. NAMELY AT ILG/MIV. THIS
FOG WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS MORNING.

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED OR PRECEDED BY SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS. HOWEVER, IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED OR MAY NOT
EVEN DEVELOP. THEREFORE, ONLY CB HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THE TAFS.

SOME GUSTY SW WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO MIXING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASED SW GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
ON LAND TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. ALTHOUGH THE
COLD WATER WILL LIMIT THE WIND SOMEWHAT ON THE WATERS, THE GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE LAND SHOULD MAKE IT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
THEREFORE, THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SCA LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE OCEAN
AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO DELAWARE BAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, COLD AIR WILL ALLOW MORE OF THE WINDS TO MAKE
IT OVER THE WATERS AND THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUN NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
MEAN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH NO RAIN RECORDED AT WILMINGTON OR ATLANTIC CITY YESTERDAY, AND
WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS AT PHILADELPHIA AND ALLENTOWN, THE STREAK OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END.
PHILADELPHIA HAD A STRING OF 9 DAYS, BOTH ALLENTOWN AND WILMINGTON
HAD 7 DAYS, AND ATLANTIC CITY HAD 5 DAYS.  NO RECORDS WERE BROKEN.

THE RECORD NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AT PHILADELPHIA WAS 12, SEPTEMBER 10-21, 1889.

THE RECORD NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AT ALLENTOWN WAS 10, SEPTEMBER 19-28, 1977 AND MAY 16-25, 1988.

THE RECORD NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AT WILMINGTON WAS 16, MAY 16-31, 1894.

THE RECORD NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AT ATLANTIC CITY WAS 9, AUGUST 19-27, 1967.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DEFINED AS A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OR
GREATER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION/MARINE...STAUBER
CLIMATE...IOVINO

000
FXUS61 KPHI 090839
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED NEAR
MILWAUKEE EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND IT
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE THIS
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY WERE PASSING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.  WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR REGION UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK.  ONCE THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM PASS OFF THE
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, THE SKY SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY.

AT 430 AM, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION EXTENDED
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SUSSEX COUNTY, NEW JERSEY TO AROUND PATERSON AND
ELIZABETH, THEN OVER TO NEW YORK CITY.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR TODAY.
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE 800 AM TO 200 PM
TIME FRAME.  EVEN FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE DECREASING AS WE SHOULD BE
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE, THE
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO VIRGINIA SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST.

THE WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME RATHER ROBUST TODAY AND THEY
SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, BRINGING DRY AIR OVER
OUR REGION.  THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH WE HAVE MENTIONED SOME FACTORS THAT ARE WORKING AGAINST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, IT
SEEMS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN OUR
REGION.  GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING CAPES UP AROUND 1500 J/KG.  AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION.  WE WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN SIX COUNTIES.

SPC HAS CUT BACK ON ITS SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER OUR REGION.  BASED ON
THEIR EARLY MORNING FORECAST, ONLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF SUSSEX
COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY AND FAR NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY ARE IN THEIR
AREA OF CONCERN.  THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN SPC`S
OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS.  AS A RESULT OF SPC`S FORECAST
AND OUR RELATIVELY LOW POPS, WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS OR IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION FOR TODAY.  WITH THE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
800 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.  ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE OVER BY THAT TIME.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY
GOOD PUSH OF COOL DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE ARE EXPECTING
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ANTICIPATED
FOR SUNDAY.

THE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S
THROUGHOUT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  SOME UPPER
30S READINGS ARE POSSIBLE UP NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEATURE A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS.  THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY.  FOR THE LATE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK, THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER,
WITH THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS THEY SEEM TO BE COMING IN LINE WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKING PLACE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE REGION AND THERE WERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH
DETERIORATION IN THE CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME MVFR CIG/VSBY
POSSIBLE. THE VSBY WOULD BE DUE MAINLY TO HAZE FROM THE LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED OR PRECEDED BY SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS. HOWEVER, IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED OR MAY
NOT EVEN DEVELOP. THEREFORE, ONLY CB HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THE TAFS.

SOME GUSTY SW WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO MIXING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASED SW GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
ON LAND TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. ALTHOUGH THE
COLD WATER WILL LIMIT THE WIND SOMEWHAT ON THE WATERS, THE GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE LAND SHOULD MAKE IT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
THEREFORE, THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SCA LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE OCEAN
AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO DELAWARE BAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, COLD AIR WILL ALLOW MORE OF THE WINDS TO MAKE
IT OVER THE WATERS AND THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE SCA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUN NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
MEAN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH NO RAIN RECORDED AT WILMINGTON OR ATLANTIC CITY YESTERDAY, AND
WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS AT PHILADELPHIA AND ALLENTOWN, THE STREAK OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END.
PHILADELPHIA HAD A STRING OF 9 DAYS, BOTH ALLENTOWN AND WILMINGTON
HAD 7 DAYS, AND ATLANTIC CITY HAD 5 DAYS.  NO RECORDS WERE BROKEN.

THE RECORD NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AT PHILADELPHIA WAS 12, SEPTEMBER 10-21, 1889.

THE RECORD NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AT ALLENTOWN WAS 10, SEPTEMBER 19-28, 1977 AND MAY 16-25, 1988.

THE RECORD NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AT WILMINGTON WAS 16, MAY 16-31, 1894.

THE RECORD NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AT ATLANTIC CITY WAS 9, AUGUST 19-27, 1967.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DEFINED AS A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OR
GREATER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION/MARINE...STAUBER
CLIMATE...IOVINO

000
FXUS61 KPHI 090514
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
114 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ARRIVES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ROAMED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THEY DISSIPATED WITH
THE CESSATION OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE HAS BEEN SCANT INSTABILITY,
AND FORCING HAS BEEN SIMILARLY WEAK. THERE IS, HOWEVER, LOTS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH MORE ARRIVING FROM THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, AND HAS DONE SO INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE OVERNIGHT FOR OUR
LOCALE, AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE AREA. THE INHERITED LIKELY
PROBABILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THEN INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE
PROBABILITIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WHERE RAIN DOES OCCUR, QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE 1/4 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 1/2 INCH NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE OVERNIGHT,WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. THIS IS
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE VERY LARGE MCS MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THIS FEATURE. THE GFS
WOULD GIVE US LESS THAN 1/4 INCH QPF WHILE THE NAM WRINGS OUT ALMOST
AN INCH. WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. IF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR,
AND IF THEY OCCUR IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS, WE COULD ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
HYDROLOGIC SITUATION. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COLD FRONT MARCHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME RE-ENERGIZED
AFTER THE MORNING SYSTEM GOES THROUGH. EITHER WAY, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. SATURDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 80S SOUTH. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE FRONT PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOTHERS DAY BUT IT WILL BE A BREEZY
DAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPLY US WITH FAIR DRY
WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT THEIR
COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 40S SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN RISE
A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL THEN BRING OUR NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE REGION EXCEPT AT ACY AND
POSSIBLY MIV. EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS MOVING BY TO
THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AT ANY OF THE SITES, HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT CAUSE
MUCH DETERIORATION IN THE CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME MVFR CIG/VSBY
POSSIBLE. THE VSBY WOULD BE DUE MAINLY TO HAZE FROM THE LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

AN ONSHORE FLOW AT ACY/MIV BROUGHT IN A BKN CLOUD DECT AT 3 HND FT.
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS MIGHT GET TO MIV TOO. DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
THE WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO MORE SW AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE
ANY STRATUS THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT.

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED OR PRECEDED BY SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS. HOWEVER, IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED OR MAY
NOT EVEN DEVELOP. THEREFORE, ONLY CB HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THE TAFS.

SOME GUSTY SW WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO MIXING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WITH WINDS ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET /1 TO 2 FEET ON THE
BAY/. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME 5-FOOTERS BEING REPORTED AT THE
OFFSHORE BUOYS. GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW, THE WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON DELAWARE BAY. SOME PESKY FOG REMAINED NEAR THE MOUTH OF
DELAWARE BAY /BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT FROM THE CAPE MAY FERRY/.
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT REALLY PICKING THIS UP, HOWEVER
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ON THIS IMAGERY ALONG PARTS OF COASTAL CAPE MAY
COUNTY ON EASTWARD /ALSO VISIBLE EARLIER ON THE AVALON WEB CAM/. THE
SATELLITE TRENDS HOWEVER SUGGEST THIS FOG IS FINALLY DISSIPATING AS
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT MORE.

ANYHOW, AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION REMAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THOUGH WILL TEND TO BUILD THE SEAS
ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING SATURDAY. THE WAVEWATCH
DATA MAY BE A LITTLE TO QUICK IN BUILDING THE SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET.
GIVEN THE SURFACE FLOW THOUGH, WE ARE EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
EVENTUALLY MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY THE SEAS DURING
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR ONLY THE OCEAN
ZONES FROM 16Z SATURDAY AND RUN IT THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY FOR NOW. GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY FOR THE BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR
AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT
TIMES. THEREFORE, AN ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
         FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.../ RPW
NEAR TERM.../ RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION...STAUBER
MARINE...GORSE

000
FXUS61 KPHI 090508
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
109 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ARRIVES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ROAMED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THEY DISSIPATED WITH
THE CESSATION OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE HAS BEEN SCANT INSTABILITY,
AND FORCING HAS BEEN SIMILARLY WEAK. THERE IS, HOWEVER, LOTS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH MORE ARRIVING FROM THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, AND HAS DONE SO INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE OVERNIGHT FOR OUR
LOCALE, AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE AREA. THE INHERITED LIKELY
PROBABILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THEN INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE
PROBABILITIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WHERE RAIN DOES OCCUR, QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE 1/4 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 1/2 INCH NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE OVERNIGHT,WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. THIS IS
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE VERY LARGE MCS MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THIS FEATURE. THE GFS
WOULD GIVE US LESS THAN 1/4 INCH QPF WHILE THE NAM WRINGS OUT ALMOST
AN INCH. WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. IF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR,
AND IF THEY OCCUR IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS, WE COULD ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
HYDROLOGIC SITUATION. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COLD FRONT MARCHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME RE-ENERGIZED
AFTER THE MORNING SYSTEM GOES THROUGH. EITHER WAY, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. SATURDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 80S SOUTH. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE FRONT PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOTHERS DAY BUT IT WILL BE A BREEZY
DAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPLY US WITH FAIR DRY
WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT THEIR
COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 40S SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN RISE
A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL THEN BRING OUR NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE REGION WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION AT ACY/MIV. EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS MOVING BY
TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AT ANY OF THE SITES, HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT CAUSE
MUCH DETERIORATION IN THE CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME MVFR CIG/VSBY
POSSIBLE. THE VSBY WOULD BE DUE MAINLY TO HAZE FROM THE LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN ONSHORE FLOW AT ACY/MIV COULD BRING IN SOME
STRATUS OVERNIGHT AND THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY A SCATTERED CLOUD
DECK AT 4 HND FT. IF IT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT, THEN THAT TAFS WILL BE
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LOWER CIGS.

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED OR PRECEDED BY SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS. HOWEVER, IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED OR MAY
NOT EVEN DEVELOP. THEREFORE, ONLY CB HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THE TAFS.

SOME GUSTY SW WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO MIXING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WITH WINDS ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET /1 TO 2 FEET ON THE
BAY/. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME 5-FOOTERS BEING REPORTED AT THE
OFFSHORE BUOYS. GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW, THE WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON DELAWARE BAY. SOME PESKY FOG REMAINED NEAR THE MOUTH OF
DELAWARE BAY /BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT FROM THE CAPE MAY FERRY/.
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT REALLY PICKING THIS UP, HOWEVER
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ON THIS IMAGERY ALONG PARTS OF COASTAL CAPE MAY
COUNTY ON EASTWARD /ALSO VISIBLE EARLIER ON THE AVALON WEB CAM/. THE
SATELLITE TRENDS HOWEVER SUGGEST THIS FOG IS FINALLY DISSIPATING AS
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT MORE.

ANYHOW, AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION REMAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THOUGH WILL TEND TO BUILD THE SEAS
ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING SATURDAY. THE WAVEWATCH
DATA MAY BE A LITTLE TO QUICK IN BUILDING THE SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET.
GIVEN THE SURFACE FLOW THOUGH, WE ARE EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
EVENTUALLY MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY THE SEAS DURING
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR ONLY THE OCEAN
ZONES FROM 16Z SATURDAY AND RUN IT THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY FOR NOW. GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY FOR THE BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR
AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT
TIMES. THEREFORE, AN ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
         FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.../ RPW
NEAR TERM.../ RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION...STAUBER
MARINE...GORSE

000
FXUS61 KPHI 090115
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ARRIVES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ROAMED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THEY DISSIPATED WITH
THE CESSATION OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE HAS BEEN SCANT INSTABILITY,
AND FORCING HAS BEEN SIMILARLY WEAK. THERE IS, HOWEVER, LOTS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH MORE ARRIVING FROM THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, AND HAS DONE SO INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE OVERNIGHT FOR OUR
LOCALE, AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE AREA. THE INHERITED LIKELY
PROBABILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THEN INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE
PROBABILITIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WHERE RAIN DOES OCCUR, QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE 1/4 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 1/2 INCH NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE OVERNIGHT,WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. THIS IS
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE VERY LARGE MCS MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THIS FEATURE. THE GFS
WOULD GIVE US LESS THAN 1/4 INCH QPF WHILE THE NAM WRINGS OUT ALMOST
AN INCH. WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. IF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR,
AND IF THEY OCCUR IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS, WE COULD ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
HYDROLOGIC SITUATION. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COLD FRONT MARCHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME RE-ENERGIZED
AFTER THE MORNING SYSTEM GOES THROUGH. EITHER WAY, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. SATURDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 80S SOUTH. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE FRONT PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOTHERS DAY BUT IT WILL BE A BREEZY
DAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPLY US WITH FAIR DRY
WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT THEIR
COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 40S SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN RISE
A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL THEN BRING OUR NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUR REGION CAUGHT A BREAK TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT WINDS
/AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE COMING TO
AN END AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CRUISES ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS IT MAY TEND TO BE
UNORGANIZED. THE INITIATION OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
TOWER UP SOME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
KABE AND KRDG. SO FAR, THE MAIN ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. OVERALL, WE
STAYED CLOSE TO CONTINUITY WITH CARRYING A CB FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH WE DID ADD IN A VCTS AT KABE AND
KRDG AS THEY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HAVING SOMETHING NEARBY.

AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER AROUND. AS THE MOISTURE
DEEPENS, THE CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR.
SOME IFR CEILINGS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP AS WELL, ALTHOUGH OUR
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT REAL HIGH AS IT MAY BE MORE TIED TO AREAS
WHERE RAIN OCCURS. THE LOCAL VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO LOWER MOSTLY
DURING TIMES OF PRECIPITATION. AS A SIDE NOTE, A LARGE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO BE CARRIED EASTWARD AS WELL AND
SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A SEA BREEZE FRONT
HAS ALREADY SHIFTED WEST OF KACY AND WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO KMIV
BY 23Z. IT MAY BE IN A MUCH WEAKENED FASHION BY THE TIME IT REACHES
KTTN TO KPHL EARLY THIS EVENING. A BAY BREEZE SETTLED IN AT KILG AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS EVEN HERE GO RATHER LIGHT THIS
EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY, THERE MAY BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND IN THE MORNING, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED A CB DESCRIPTOR FROM ABOUT 14-15Z
ONWARD. CEILINGS SHOULD BE MVFR/VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END. HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL BEGINS TO ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY FROM THE WEST, HOWEVER A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS /UP TO 30 KNOTS/. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WITH WINDS ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET /1 TO 2 FEET ON THE
BAY/. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME 5-FOOTERS BEING REPORTED AT THE
OFFSHORE BUOYS. GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW, THE WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON DELAWARE BAY. SOME PESKY FOG REMAINED NEAR THE MOUTH OF
DELAWARE BAY /BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT FROM THE CAPE MAY FERRY/.
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT REALLY PICKING THIS UP, HOWEVER
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ON THIS IMAGERY ALONG PARTS OF COASTAL CAPE MAY
COUNTY ON EASTWARD /ALSO VISIBLE EARLIER ON THE AVALON WEB CAM/. THE
SATELLITE TRENDS HOWEVER SUGGEST THIS FOG IS FINALLY DISSIPATING AS
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT MORE.

ANYHOW, AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION REMAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THOUGH WILL TEND TO BUILD THE SEAS
ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING SATURDAY. THE WAVEWATCH
DATA MAY BE A LITTLE TO QUICK IN BUILDING THE SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET.
GIVEN THE SURFACE FLOW THOUGH, WE ARE EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
EVENTUALLY MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY THE SEAS DURING
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR ONLY THE OCEAN
ZONES FROM 16Z SATURDAY AND RUN IT THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY FOR NOW. GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY FOR THE BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR
AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT
TIMES. THEREFORE, AN ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
         FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.../ RPW
NEAR TERM.../ RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE

000
FXUS61 KPHI 081942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM OUR WET WEATHER
LATE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THE DRY PERIOD WILL BE CUT
SHORT IN MANY AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. OUR NORTHERN
AREAS WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY, AS IS ALREADY
BECOMING QUITE EVIDENT ON RADAR. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
SOME POP UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER THAN UP NORTH. QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE NORTH AND UP TO
1/4 INCH SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE VERY LARGE MCS MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THIS FEATURE. THE GFS
WOULD GIVE US LESS THAN 1/4 INCH QPF WHILE THE NAM RINGS OUT ALMOST
AN INCH. WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. IF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR,
AND IF THEY OCCUR IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS, WE COULD ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
HYDROLOGIC SITUATION. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COLD FRONT MARCHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME RE-
ENERGIZED AFTER THE MORNING SYSTEM GOES THROUGH. EITHER WAY,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 80S SOUTH. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
END SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WITH COOLER DRIER AIR WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOTHERS DAY BUT
IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SATURDAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPLY US WITH
FAIR DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT
THEIR COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING OUR NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUR REGION CAUGHT A BREAK TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT WINDS
/AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE COMING TO
AN END AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CRUISES ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS IT MAY TEND TO BE
UNORGANIZED. THE INITIATION OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
TOWER UP SOME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
KABE AND KRDG. SO FAR, THE MAIN ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. OVERALL, WE
STAYED CLOSE TO CONTINUITY WITH CARRYING A CB FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH WE DID ADD IN A VCTS AT KABE AND
KRDG AS THEY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HAVING SOMETHING NEARBY.

AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER AROUND. AS THE MOISTURE
DEEPENS, THE CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR.
SOME IFR CEILINGS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP AS WELL, ALTHOUGH OUR
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT REAL HIGH AS IT MAY BE MORE TIED TO AREAS
WHERE RAIN OCCURS. THE LOCAL VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO LOWER MOSTLY
DURING TIMES OF PRECIPITATION. AS A SIDE NOTE, A LARGE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO BE CARRIED EASTWARD AS WELL AND
SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A SEA BREEZE FRONT
HAS ALREADY SHIFTED WEST OF KACY AND WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO KMIV
BY 23Z. IT MAY BE IN A MUCH WEAKENED FASHION BY THE TIME IT REACHES
KTTN TO KPHL EARLY THIS EVENING. A BAY BREEZE SETTLED IN AT KILG AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS EVEN HERE GO RATHER LIGHT THIS
EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY, THERE MAY BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND IN THE MORNING, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED A CB DESCRIPTOR FROM ABOUT 14-15Z
ONWARD. CEILINGS SHOULD BE MVFR/VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END. HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL BEGINS TO ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY FROM THE WEST, HOWEVER A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS /UP TO 30 KNOTS/. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WITH WINDS ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET /1 TO 2 FEET ON THE
BAY/. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME 5-FOOTERS BEING REPORTED AT THE
OFFSHORE BUOYS. GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW, THE WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON DELAWARE BAY. SOME PESKY FOG REMAINED NEAR THE MOUTH OF
DELAWARE BAY /BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT FROM THE CAPE MAY FERRY/.
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT REALLY PICKING THIS UP, HOWEVER
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ON THIS IMAGERY ALONG PARTS OF COASTAL CAPE MAY
COUNTY ON EASTWARD /ALSO VISIBLE EARLIER ON THE AVALON WEB CAM/. THE
SATELLITE TRENDS HOWEVER SUGGEST THIS FOG IS FINALLY DISSIPATING AS
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT MORE.

ANYHOW, AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION REMAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THOUGH WILL TEND TO BUILD THE SEAS
ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING SATURDAY. THE WAVEWATCH
DATA MAY BE A LITTLE TO QUICK IN BUILDING THE SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET.
GIVEN THE SURFACE FLOW THOUGH, WE ARE EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
EVENTUALLY MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY THE SEAS DURING
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR ONLY THE OCEAN
ZONES FROM 16Z SATURDAY AND RUN IT THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY FOR NOW. GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY FOR THE BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR
AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT
TIMES. THEREFORE, AN ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPW
NEAR TERM...RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE

000
FXUS61 KPHI 081940
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM OUR WET WEATHER
LATE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THE DRY PERIOD WILL BE CUT
SHORT IN MANY AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. OUR NORTHERN
AREAS WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY, AS IS ALREADY
BECOMING QUITE EVIDENT ON RADAR. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
SOME POP UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER THAN UP NORTH. QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE NORTH AND UP TO
1/4 INCH SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE VERY LARGE MCS MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THIS FEATURE. THE GFS
WOULD GIVE US LESS THAN 1/4 INCH QPF WHILE THE NAM RINGS OUT ALMOST
AN INCH. WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. IF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR,
AND IF THEY OCCUR IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS, WE COULD ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
HYDROLOGIC SITUATION. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COLD FRONT MARCHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME RE-
ENERGIZED AFTER THE MORNING SYSTEM GOES THROUGH. EITHER WAY,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 80S SOUTH. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
END SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WITH COOLER DRIER AIR WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOTHERS DAY BUT
IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SATURDAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPLY US WITH
FAIR DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT
THEIR COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT THEREAFTER. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING OUR NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUR REGION CAUGHT A BREAK TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT WINDS
/AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE COMING TO
AN END AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CRUISES ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS IT MAY TEND TO BE
UNORGANIZED. THE INITIATION OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
TOWER UP SOME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
KABE AND KRDG. SO FAR, THE MAIN ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. OVERALL, WE
STAYED CLOSE TO CONTINUITY WITH CARRYING A CB FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH WE DID ADD IN A VCTS AT KABE AND
KRDG AS THEY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HAVING SOMETHING NEARBY.

AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER AROUND. AS THE MOISTURE
DEEPENS, THE CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR.
SOME IFR CEILINGS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP AS WELL, ALTHOUGH OUR
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT REAL HIGH AS IT MAY BE MORE TIED TO AREAS
WHERE RAIN OCCURS. THE LOCAL VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO LOWER MOSTLY
DURING TIMES OF PRECIPITATION. AS A SIDE NOTE, A LARGE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO BE CARRIED EASTWARD AS WELL AND
SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A SEA BREEZE FRONT
HAS ALREADY SHIFTED WEST OF KACY AND WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO KMIV
BY 23Z. IT MAY BE IN A MUCH WEAKENED FASHION BY THE TIME IT REACHES
KTTN TO KPHL EARLY THIS EVENING. A BAY BREEZE SETTLED IN AT KILG AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS EVEN HERE GO RATHER LIGHT THIS
EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY, THERE MAY BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND IN THE MORNING, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED A CB DESCRIPTOR FROM ABOUT 14-15Z
ONWARD. CEILINGS SHOULD BE MVFR/VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END. HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL BEGINS TO ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY FROM THE WEST, HOWEVER A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS /UP TO 30 KNOTS/. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WITH WINDS ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET /1 TO 2 FEET ON THE
BAY/. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME 5-FOOTERS BEING REPORTED AT THE
OFFSHORE BUOYS. GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW, THE WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON DELAWARE BAY. SOME PESKY FOG REMAINED NEAR THE MOUTH OF
DELAWARE BAY /BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT FROM THE CAPE MAY FERRY/.
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT REALLY PICKING THIS UP, HOWEVER
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ON THIS IMAGERY ALONG PARTS OF COASTAL CAPE MAY
COUNTY ON EASTWARD /ALSO VISIBLE EARLIER ON THE AVALON WEB CAM/. THE
SATELLITE TRENDS HOWEVER SUGGEST THIS FOG IS FINALLY DISSIPATING AS
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT MORE.

ANYHOW, AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION REMAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THOUGH WILL TEND TO BUILD THE SEAS
ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING SATURDAY. THE WAVEWATCH
DATA MAY BE A LITTLE TO QUICK IN BUILDING THE SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET.
GIVEN THE SURFACE FLOW THOUGH, WE ARE EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
EVENTUALLY MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY THE SEAS DURING
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR ONLY THE OCEAN
ZONES FROM 16Z SATURDAY AND RUN IT THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY FOR NOW. GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY FOR THE BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR
AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT
TIMES. THEREFORE, AN ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPW
NEAR TERM...RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE

000
FXUS61 KPHI 081751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
151 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA TO WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS BOUNDARY IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE DEW POINTS
AS THE WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A
STRONG 300 MB JET FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH ITS CORE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST ON WESTWARD. A FAIRLY ZONAL
FLOW IS ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE NATION
AND THERE ARE SEVERAL TO OUR WEST. ONE IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS VISIBLE
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

WE HAVE FINALLY GOTTEN A BREAK IN THE RELENTLESS LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE STARTED THE DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE
WAS SOME FOG. THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED, HOWEVER THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST IS TOSSING MAINLY
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
THERE IS A CLEAR AREA THOUGH CENTERED ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA-
MARYLAND BORDER THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE FOR AWHILE BEFORE WE REACH
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF NEAR 80 TO POP SOME CUMULUS. AS A
RESULT, WE DID NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER FORECAST EXCEPT TO CAPTURE THE ONGOING CLOUDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE ARRIVES MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT ALL THAT CLEAR. THERE WILL BE
INSTABILITY AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY JUST TO OUR WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON THEN THAT ADVECTS EASTWARD. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW
MUCH SYNOPTIC LIFT ARRIVES TO HELP ACCELERATE THE AIR PARCELS
UPWARD. AS OF NOW, WE MAINTAINED THE POPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS, WHICH
HAS A GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST /CHC/ ACROSS THE WEST. WE SHOULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP
AND MOVE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT INLAND. THIS BOUNDARY, IF IT BECOMES
PRONOUNCED ENOUGH, MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL LIFT TO POP SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOKED A BIT LOW TODAY CONSIDERING THE SUNSHINE AND
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +10C AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES OF +15C.
BASED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS SO FAR THIS MORNING, WE BUMPED UP THE
HIGHS A LITTLE BIT MOSTLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

AS A SIDE NOTE, A MASSIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REPORTS INDICATE
THAT WINDS HAVE BEEN CLOCKED TO 85 MPH ALONG THIS LARGE BOWING
FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AT CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM ABOVE SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO SOME WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION TO
THE WEST SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWING
THE UPPER AIR PROGS, THERE WOULD PROBABLY BE A LULL IN RW/TRW
ACTIVITY AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, BY MORNING, MORE SHORT
WAVES ALOFT AND A LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW REDEVELOPMENT
OF RW/TRW.

ON SATURDAY, A WELL ORGANIZED COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SHOULD MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT AND SINCE IT LOOKS WARMER WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S, THE AIRMASS WHEN THE FRONT
CROSSES SHOULD BE UNSTABLE SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SVR TSTMS. SPC HAS PLACE MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR ON SAT.

COOLER DRIER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
ENDING THE CURRENT PERIOD OF WET WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR WET WEATHER WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. MOTHERS DAY NOW LOOKS TO BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN OUR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY US WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY WITH OUR NEXT THREAT FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUR REGION CAUGHT A BREAK TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT WINDS
/AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE COMING TO
AN END AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CRUISES ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS IT LOOKS TO BE UNORGANIZED. THE
INITIATION OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS CUMULUS BEGINNING TO
TOWER UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KABE AND
KRDG. AS A RESULT, WE STAYED CLOSE TO CONTINUITY WITH CARRYING A CB
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH DID ADD
IN A VCTS AT KABE AND KRDG AS THEY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
HAVING SOMETHING NEARBY.

AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER AROUND. AS THE MOISTURE
DEEPENS, THE CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR.
SOME IFR CEILINGS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP AS WELL, ALTHOUGH OUR
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT REAL HIGH AS IT MAY BE MORE TIED TO AREAS
WHERE RAIN OCCURS. THE LOCAL VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO LOWER MOSTLY
DURING TIMES OF PRECIPITATION. AS A SIDE NOTE, A LARGE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO BE CARRIED EASTWARD AS WELL AND SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A SEA BREEZE FRONT
HAS DEVELOPED AND HAS ALREADY SHIFTED WEST OF KACY AND WILL PROBABLY
MAKE IT TO KMIV BY 21Z. IT MAY BE IN A WEAKER FASHION BY THE TIME IT
REACHES KTTN TO KPHL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A
BAY BREEZE APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED IN AT KILG AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL WINDS EVEN HERE GO RATHER LIGHT THIS EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY, THERE MAY BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND IN THE MORNING, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. FOR
NOW, WE CARRIED A CB DESCRIPTOR FROM ABOUT 14-15Z ONWARD. CEILINGS
SHOULD BE MVFR/VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END. HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL BEGINS TO ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY FROM THE WEST, HOWEVER A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS /UP TO 30 KNOTS/. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD BACK OVER OUR MARINE AREA
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PUSH OF COOL AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WIND GUSTS COULD NECESSITATE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A TIME FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD BRING RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINS, ANY HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING
TO DEVELOP. THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS FOR FLOODING DUE TO THE WET
GROUND WOULD BE IN THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA AND NEARBY
AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. I DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD OR FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES THIS FCST SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH. ON SATURDAY, CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND
IF FLOODING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A GREATER THREAT, THEN FLOOD
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...IOVINO/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...STAUBER

000
FXUS61 KPHI 081454
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1054 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA TO WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS BOUNDARY IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE DEW POINTS
AS THE WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A
STRONG 300 MB JET FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH ITS CORE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST ON WESTWARD. A FAIRLY ZONAL
FLOW IS ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE NATION
AND THERE ARE SEVERAL TO OUR WEST. ONE IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS VISIBLE
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

WE HAVE FINALLY GOTTEN A BREAK IN THE RELENTLESS LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE STARTED THE DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE
WAS SOME FOG. THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED, HOWEVER THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST IS TOSSING MAINLY
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
THERE IS A CLEAR AREA THOUGH CENTERED ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA-
MARYLAND BORDER THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE FOR AWHILE BEFORE WE REACH
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF NEAR 80 TO POP SOME CUMULUS. AS A
RESULT, WE DID NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER FORECAST EXCEPT TO CAPTURE THE ONGOING CLOUDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE ARRIVES MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT ALL THAT CLEAR. THERE WILL BE
INSTABILITY AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY JUST TO OUR WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON THEN THAT ADVECTS EASTWARD. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW
MUCH SYNOPTIC LIFT ARRIVES TO HELP ACCELERATE THE AIR PARCELS
UPWARD. AS OF NOW, WE MAINTAINED THE POPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS, WHICH
HAS A GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST /CHC/ ACROSS THE WEST. WE SHOULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP
AND MOVE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT INLAND. THIS BOUNDARY, IF IT BECOMES
PRONOUNCED ENOUGH, MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL LIFT TO POP SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOKED A BIT LOW TODAY CONSIDERING THE SUNSHINE AND
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +10C AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES OF +15C.
BASED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS SO FAR THIS MORNING, WE BUMPED UP THE
HIGHS A LITTLE BIT MOSTLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

AS A SIDE NOTE, A MASSIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REPORTS INDICATE
THAT WINDS HAVE BEEN CLOCKED TO 85 MPH ALONG THIS LARGE BOWING
FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AT CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM ABOVE SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO SOME WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION TO
THE WEST SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWING
THE UPPER AIR PROGS, THERE WOULD PROBABLY BE A LULL IN RW/TRW
ACTIVITY AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, BY MORNING, MORE SHORT
WAVES ALOFT AND A LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW REDEVELOPMENT
OF RW/TRW.

ON SATURDAY, A WELL ORGANIZED COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SHOULD MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT AND SINCE IT LOOKS WARMER WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S, THE AIRMASS WHEN THE FRONT
CROSSES SHOULD BE UNSTABLE SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SVR TSTMS. SPC HAS PLACE MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR ON SAT.

COOLER DRIER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
ENDING THE CURRENT PERIOD OF WET WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR WET WEATHER WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. MOTHERS DAY NOW LOOKS TO BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN OUR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY US WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY WITH OUR NEXT THREAT FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE MAINLY SHALLOW FOG THAT WAS AROUND HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS HAS BEEN A RARITY FOR AWHILE. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 6 OR 8
KNOTS WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING BELOW A MID TO HIGH
LEVEL DECK.

WE ARE EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. BEING THAT THE INITIAL
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED, WE HAVE SIMPLY CARRIED CUMULONIMBUS
IN THE TAFS FOR KRDG AND KABE AT 2100Z, KTTN AT 2200Z,
KPNE/KPHL/KILG AT 2300Z, AND KMIV AND KACY AT 0000Z. SATELLITE AND
RADAR DATA WILL BE MONITORED IN THE EVENT SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
EARLIER. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND LOWERING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SATURDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT THE BUOYS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD AND MAINLY BELOW 5
FEET NOW. THE WAVE PERIOD IS AROUND 8 SECONDS, THEREFORE IT IS
TENDING TO BE MORE OF A SWELL. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CANCEL THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD BACK
OVER OUR MARINE AREA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PUSH OF COOL AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WIND GUSTS COULD NECESSITATE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A TIME FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD BRING RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINS, ANY HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING
TO DEVELOP. THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS FOR FLOODING DUE TO THE WET
GROUND WOULD BE IN THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA AND NEARBY
AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. I DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD OR FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES THIS FCST SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH. ON SATURDAY, CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND
IF FLOODING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A GREATER THREAT, THEN FLOOD
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...IOVINO/GORSE
MARINE...IOVINO/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...STAUBER

000
FXUS61 KPHI 081036
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
635 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS EVIDENCED BY
THE DEWPOINTS. TO THE N/W OF PHL THE DEWPOINTS DROPPED WELL DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND IN THE 40S IN THE POCONOS, BUT FROM PHL S/E THEY
WERE AROUND 60. SATL SHOWED CLEARING SKIES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WHEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE
AND THE WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED. THIS
FOG SHOULD "BURN OFF" RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THE STRONG SEASONAL SUNSHINE.

THEN SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOVE WELL
INTO THE 70S TODAY WITH NEAR 80 SOUTH AS THE SUNSHINE SHOULD WORK
ITS MAGIC ON A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING, AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE ALOFT. THE GFS LOOKS CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK, BUT EVEN SO, THE TIMING FROM THE GFS AS WELL AS THE NAM
AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TOWARD
EVENING. I WENT WITH THIS BECAUSE IT WILL BE WARM AND WONT TAKE
MUCH TO GET CONVECTION TO FIRE UP IN OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK A BIT LOW TODAY CONSIDERING THE SUNSHINE AND
THE H8 TEMPS AS WELL AS THE 1000-850 THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AT CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM ABOVE SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO SOME WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION TO
THE WEST SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWING
THE UPPER AIR PROGS, THERE WOULD PROBABLY BE A LULL IN RW/TRW
ACTIVITY AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, BY MORNING, MORE SHORT
WAVES ALOFT AND A LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW REDEVELOPMENT
OF RW/TRW.

ON SATURDAY, A WELL ORGANIZED COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SHOULD MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT AND SINCE IT LOOKS WARMER WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S, THE AIRMASS WHEN THE FRONT
CROSSES SHOULD BE UNSTABLE SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SVR TSTMS. SPC HAS PLACE MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR ON SAT.

COOLER DRIER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
ENDING THE CURRENT PERIOD OF WET WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR WET WEATHER WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. MOTHERS DAY NOW LOOKS TO BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN OUR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY US WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY WITH OUR NEXT THREAT FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH NO CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD, THE SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AS THE SUN ACTS UPON IT.  WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES INTO THE VFR
RANGE BY 1300Z.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY.  THERE WILL BE A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 6 OR 8 KNOTS
WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING.

WE ARE EXPECTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.  BEING THAT THE
INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED, WE HAVE SIMPLY INTRODUCED
CUMULONIMBUS INTO THE TAFS FOR KRDG AND KABE AT 2100Z, KTTN AT
2200Z, KPNE/KPHL/KILG AT 2300Z, AND KMIV AND KACY AT 0000Z.

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND LOWERING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SATURDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY THIS
MORNING.  IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FEET BY LATE
MORNING.  AS A RESULT, WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO END AT 1100 THIS MORNING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD BACK OVER OUR MARINE AREA
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NEW JERSEY ON DELAWARE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG PUSH
OF COOL AIR WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WIND
GUSTS COULD NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A TIME FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD BRING RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINS, ANY HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING
TO DEVELOP. THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS FOR FLOODING DUE TO THE WET
GROUND WOULD BE IN THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA AND NEARBY
AREAS OF NJ AND DE. I DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
THIS FCST SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH. ON SATURDAY, CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WHEN THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND IF
FLOODING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A GREATER THREAT, THEN FLOOD
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING.
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
HYDROLOGY...STAUBER

000
FXUS61 KPHI 080746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS EVIDENCED BY
THE DEWPOINTS. TO THE N/W OF PHL THE DEWPOINTS DROPPED WELL DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND IN THE 40S IN THE POCONOS, BUT FROM PHL S/E THEY WERE
AROUND 60. SATL SHOWED CLEARING SKIES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WHEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND THE WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS...PATCHY FOG HAS
FORMED. THIS FOG SHOULD "BURN OFF" RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SEASONAL SUNSHINE.

THEN SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOVE WELL
INTO THE 70S TODAY WITH NEAR 80 SOUTH AS THE SUNSHINE SHOULD WORK
ITS MAGIC ON A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING, AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE ALOFT. THE GFS LOOKS CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK, BUT EVEN SO, THE TIMING FROM THE GFS AS WELL AS THE NAM
AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TOWARD
EVENING. I WENT WITH THIS BECAUSE IT WILL BE WARM AND WONT TAKE
MUCH TO GET CONVECTION TO FIRE UP IN OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK A BIT LOW TODAY CONSIDERING THE SUNSHINE AND
THE H8 TEMPS AS WELL AS THE 1000-850 THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AT CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM ABOVE SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO SOME WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION TO
THE WEST SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWING
THE UPPER AIR PROGS, THERE WOULD PROBABLY BE A LULL IN RW/TRW
ACTIVITY AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, BY MORNING, MORE SHORT
WAVES ALOFT AND A LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW REDEVELOPMENT
OF RW/TRW.

ON SATURDAY, A WELL ORGANIZED COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SHOULD MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT AND SINCE IT LOOKS WARMER WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S, THE AIRMASS WHEN THE FRONT
CROSSES SHOULD BE UNSTABLE SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SVR TSTMS. SPC HAS PLACE MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR ON SAT.

COOLER DRIER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
ENDING THE CURRENT PERIOD OF WET WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR WET WEATHER WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. MOTHERS DAY NOW LOOKS TO BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN OUR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY US WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY WITH OUR NEXT THREAT FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT AND THE WIND WAS MAINLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED, WITH THE MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG BEING IN AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF KPHL WHERE
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.  SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR HAD REACHED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF KPHL, AND THE FOG HAS BEEN MORE PATCHY IN NATURE THERE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNTIL
1300Z.  BY THAT TIME, THE SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX THE ATMOSPHERE A
BIT, DISSIPATING ANY LINGERING FOG.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY.  THERE WILL BE A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 6 OR 8 KNOTS
WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING.

WE ARE EXPECTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.  BEING THAT THE
INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED, WE HAVE SIMPLY INTRODUCED
CUMULONIMBUS INTO THE TAFS FOR KRDG AND KABE AT 2100Z, KTTN AT
2200Z, KPNE/KPHL/KILG AT 2300Z, AND KMIV AND KACY AT 0000Z.

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND LOWERING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SATURDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY THIS
MORNING.  IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FEET BY LATE
MORNING.  AS A RESULT, WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO END AT 1100 THIS MORNING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD BACK OVER OUR MARINE AREA
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NEW JERSEY ON DELAWARE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG PUSH
OF COOL AIR WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WIND
GUSTS COULD NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A TIME FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD BRING RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINS, ANY HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING
TO DEVELOP. THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS FOR FLOODING DUE TO THE WET
GROUND WOULD BE IN THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA AND NEARBY
AREAS OF NJ AND DE. I DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
THIS FCST SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH. ON SATURDAY, CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WHEN THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND IF
FLOODING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A GREATER THREAT, THEN FLOOD
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING.
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
HYDROLOGY...STAUBER

000
FXUS61 KPHI 080045
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
845 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE
DELAWARE VALLEY AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TO THE COAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY,
BUT ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY HUMID LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS OUR
DELMARVA AND NJ. IN SPITE OF THIS CONVECTION HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP
OR CONTINUE. INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY DECREASING. WE WILL KEEP A VERY
LOW CHANCE IN THE GRIDS TIL 03Z AND KEEP THE OVERNIGHT DRY (AS THE
ZONES WILL DEPICT). THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT WIND
AND SLIGHTLY CLEAR(ER) SKIES WITH THE RECENT RAIN, WE DID ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG. NO CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS. BECAUSE OF THE ALL OF THE
RECENT RAIN THE 1 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN MIDDLESEX AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 3/4 OF AN INCH, A VERY
RARE SIGHT TO SEE WITH TREES IN BLOOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CREEP IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN TE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR WET WEATHER WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. MOTHERS DAY NOW LOOKS TO BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN OUR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY US WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY WITH OUR NEXT THREAT FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON HAS LEFT ONLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN ITS WAKE, AND THIS
WILL BE WANING AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SO, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED, AND WILL DO
SO FURTHER THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
ENOUGH EVERYWHERE TO COMBINE WITH THE MOIST GROUND TO ALLOW FOR SOME
FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MARGINAL VFR AND
PATCHY IFR FOG WAS FORECAST FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW, AS
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME TO DEVELOP.

FOR FRIDAY, ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY MID MORNING, CUMULUS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY; HOWEVER, SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KABE AND KRDG IN DEFERENCE
TO THE UPPER WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, LIKELY
PRODUCING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA SUNDAY, HOWEVER A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EDGE CLOSER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT, HOWEVER
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH IS NOT
REALLY STRONG AT THE SURFACE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CONTINUED
ON THE OCEAN THROUGH 22Z FRIDAY. ON DELAWARE BAY, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE LATE FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT, AND
SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN LIGHTER AND TEND TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM, WHICH LOOKS
TO BE THE LAST IN THIS SERIES. THIS COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST, AND WILL CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, THEN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL OCCUR. SOME COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA, WHICH WOULD TEND TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL MIXING SOMEWHAT.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR
STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. THESE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY, BEFORE DIMINISHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO OUR
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH THE VERY WET CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THROUGH THE
PAST WEEK, WE DECIDED TO TAKE A LOOK THROUGH THE RECORDS TO SEE
WHERE WE CURRENTLY STAND. WE LOOKED AT THE 4 BIG CLIMATE SITES ONLY
AND HERE ARE THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF MEASURABLE RAIN. MEASURABLE
RAIN IS DEFINED AS BEING 0.01 INCHES OR GREATER. TRACE AMOUNTS ARE
NOT COUNTED IN THESE TOTALS. ALL CURRENT STREAKS ARE THROUGH TODAY
/MAY 7/.

                  CURRENT     ALL-TIME       MAY
                   STREAK      RECORD       RECORD
                  /IN DAYS/

PHILADELPHIA, PA     9        12(9/1889)   11(1950&1894)

ALLENTOWN, PA        7        10(9/1977)   10(1988)

WILMINGTON, DE       7        16(6/1894)   12(1998)

ATLANTIC CITY, NJ    5*        9(8/1967)    8(2003&1980)


* ATLANTIC CITY RECEIVED ONLY A TRACE OF RAIN ON MAY 2ND. HAD THIS
BEEN AT LEAST 0.01 INCHES THEN THE CURRENT STREAK WOULD BE AT 7 DAYS
INSTEAD OF 5 DAYS.

RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOULD
PHILADELPHIA SEE MEASURE EVERY DAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN THE RECORD
WOULD BE TIED.

PHILADELPHIA RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1872.
ALLENTOWN RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1922.
WILMINGTON RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1894.
ATLANTIC CITY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1945.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPW
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...RPW/MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/
MARINE...GORSE/
CLIMATE...MEOLA

000
FXUS61 KPHI 072024
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN OUR EASTERN AREAS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. WILL DROP THE FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE SINCE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON TE MILD SIDE WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CREEP IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN TE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR WET WEATHER WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. MOTHERS DAY NOW LOOKS TO BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN OUR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY US WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY WITH OUR NEXT THREAT FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY TENDED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AS IT
MOVED EASTWARD, ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED RAIN WILL SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM ABOUT THE KPHL AREA TO KTTN THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE KABE AND KRDG TERMINALS HAVE ESCAPED THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY, WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HERE AS
THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING TO THEIR EAST. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THIS
EVENING, CLEARING MOST OF THE TERMINALS. KMIV AND KACY WILL BE LAST
TO HAVE THE ACTIVITY CLEAR. THE PESKY MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOSTLY
LIFTED TO VFR BASES HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEALTH OF MOISTURE LINGERING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SOME MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF PRECIPITATION. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY SLIDES
TO OUR EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, A TREND TO COMPLETELY VFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.

THE SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY ABOUT 10 KNOTS WILL THEN TEND TO
DIMINISH AS THE VERTICAL MIXING WANES THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT
APPEARS THAT THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT ENOUGH EVERYWHERE TO COMBINE
WITH THE MOIST GROUND TO ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WE WENT WITH SOME MVFR/PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW AS CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SOME TO DEVELOP.

FOR FRIDAY, ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY MID MORNING, SOME CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATER IN THE DAY HOWEVER SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP MAY
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT KABE AND KRDG.

OUTLOOK...
A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THEN ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR AREA ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN
EDGES CLOSER FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS MAINTAINING
ELEVATED SEAS ON THE OCEAN, WHILE ON DELAWARE BAY THE SEAS ARE 1 TO
3 FEET. THE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ALTHOUGH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED. LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS AND
HIGHER SEAS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY TEND TO SHIFT TO THE WEST
TONIGHT, HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHILE NOT
REALLY STRONG AT THE SURFACE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, WE MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE OCEAN THROUGH 22Z FRIDAY. ON DELAWARE BAY, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS FOR A BRIEF TIME
INTO THIS EVENING.

THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
WINDS TURN LIGHTER AND TEND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE
AHEAD OF YET OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE LAST IN
THIS SERIES. THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST AND WILL
CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, THEN A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL
OCCUR. SOME COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WHICH WOULD TEND TO
INCREASE THE VERTICAL MIXING SOME. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
THESE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SUNDAY, BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO OUR REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH THE VERY WET CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THROUGH THE
PAST WEEK, WE DECIDED TO TAKE A LOOK THROUGH THE RECORDS TO SEE
WHERE WE CURRENTLY STAND. WE LOOKED AT THE 4 BIG CLIMATE SITES ONLY
AND HERE ARE THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF MEASURABLE RAIN. MEASURABLE
RAIN IS DEFINED AS BEING 0.01 INCHES OR GREATER. TRACE AMOUNTS ARE
NOT COUNTED IN THESE TOTALS. ALL CURRENT STREAKS ARE THROUGH TODAY
/MAY 7/.

                  CURRENT     ALL-TIME       MAY
                   STREAK      RECORD       RECORD
                  /IN DAYS/

PHILADELPHIA, PA     9        12(9/1889)   11(1950&1894)

ALLENTOWN, PA        7        10(9/1977)   10(1988)

WILMINGTON, DE       7        16(6/1894)   12(1998)

ATLANTIC CITY, NJ    5*        9(8/1967)    8(2003&1980)


* ATLANTIC CITY RECEIVED ONLY A TRACE OF RAIN ON MAY 2ND. HAD THIS
BEEN AT LEAST 0.01 INCHES THEN THE CURRENT STREAK WOULD BE AT 7 DAYS
INSTEAD OF 5 DAYS.

RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOULD
PHILADELPHIA SEE MEASURE EVERY DAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN THE RECORD
WOULD BE TIED.

PHILADELPHIA RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1872.
ALLENTOWN RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1922.
WILMINGTON RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1894.
ATLANTIC CITY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1945.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPW
NEAR TERM...RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...RPW/MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE
CLIMATE...MEOLA

000
FXUS61 KPHI 071542
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1142 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SARANAC
LAKE, NEW YORK WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO ITS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
A WARM FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED OUR ENTIRE CWA AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
JUMPED INTO THE 60S NOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. A WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVE IS VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD AND IMPACT MOST OF OUR CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON, BUT IT MAY TEND TO DIMINISH BY 21Z AS THE STRONGER LIFT
IS FORECAST TO WANE SOME. WITH THE AIR MASS HEATING UP SOME MORE
ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS, WE MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A
STRONG/SEVERE STORM ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SPC`S DAY
ONE OUTLOOK BRINGS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE GRIDDED DATABASE AND ALL RELATED
PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED TO ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS AND POPS. BASED
ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS, WE NEEDED TO BUMP UP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY LOCALES. IF WE GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES COULD CERTAINLY GO HIGHER.

REGARDING THE FLOOD WATCH, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH. ALSO THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH THERE COULD
BE SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT SOUTH. DUE TO THIS, I
HAVE INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY
SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH WITHIN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOK POTENT ENOUGH TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE AFTERNOON, THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS THAT THE 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KT SOUTH. THIS COULD
MEAN STRONG TSTMS THERE AND SPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

FRIDAY NIGHT, DRIER AIR RETURNS BEHIND THIS TROUGH.

IN GENERAL, MAV TEMPS WERE USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET START TO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SOME MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE A REPRIEVE FROM THE WET
CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS WE END THE WEEKEND AND
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER,
DRYING US OUT AND BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE
ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE WARM FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED ALL OF OUR TERMINALS AS OF 15Z AND
CEILINGS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE, ALTHOUGH SOME VFR
CEILINGS ARE NOW DEVELOPING DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING ABOVE
THE SURFACE AND DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z STERLING, VIRGINIA SOUNDING. WE ARE
EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE ARE
PLANNING TO ADD IN SOME TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY. IN
AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, CONDITIONS WILL LOCALLY
LOWER ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND THE LIGHT WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT, WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME HINT AT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FOR LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WHILE THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FROM
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS, WAVES WERE RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 FEET THIS
MORNING. WITH THE LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH, SEAS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE 5 FEET INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME WATERWAYS
IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED. SINCE THERE WILL BE
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON, SEVERAL WATERWAYS
RUNNING HIGH, AND SOME 1-HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE BEING LOW, WE FELT IT
WAS BEST TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 5 PM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ009-010-012-
     013-015.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/GORSE
MARINE...IOVINO
HYDROLOGY...GORSE

000
FXUS61 KPHI 071232
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SYRACUSE, NEW YORK WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO ITS SOUTHWEST. A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOST
OF OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WARM SECTOR HAS NOT REACHED NORTH
OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM KABE TO KSMQ. A WELL DEFINE SHORT WAVE IS
VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER. THIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY AND MAY DEVELOP SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE AIR
MASS HEATING UP SOME MORE TODAY ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS, MAY
NEED TO WATCH FOR A STRONG/SEVERE STORM MAINLY IN OUR DELMARVA
COUNTIES. SPC`S DAY ONE OUTLOOK BRINGS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE EARLIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED, THEREFORE WE UPDATED THE
GRIDDED DATABASE AND ALL PRODUCTS TO THROTTLE BACK THE POPS SOME.
THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED AS WELL TO CAPTURE THE THERMAL
GRADIENT A BIT BETTER UP NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT.

REGARDING THE FLOOD WATCH, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA UNDER COLD ADVECTION, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
BE LIGHTER AND TEND TO BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH. ALSO THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH THERE COULD
BE SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT SOUTH. DUE TO THIS, I
HAVE INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY
SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH WITHIN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOK POTENT ENOUGH TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE AFTERNOON, THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS THAT THE 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KT SOUTH. THIS COULD
MEAN STRONG TSTMS THERE AND SPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

FRIDAY NIGHT, DRIER AIR RETURNS BEHIND THIS TROUGH.

IN GENERAL, MAV TEMPS WERE USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET START TO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SOME MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE A REPRIEVE FROM THE WET
CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS WE END THE WEEKEND AND
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER,
DRYING US OUT AND BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE
ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE WARM FRONT IS NEARING KABE AS OF 12Z BUT SEEMS TO BE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE ADVANCING FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LIFT MORE NORTHWARD THOUGH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING.

WHILE THE LOW CONDITIONS MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AT KRDG
AND KABE, CEILING HEIGHTS WILL VARY AT OUR OTHER SIX TAF SITES,
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AND IT MAY REACH OUR REGION AROUND MIDDAY. ONCE IT
PASSES, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ALL OF OUR TAF SITES WILL RISE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME, SO WE HAVE INCLUDED CUMULONIMBUS IN
THE FORECAST.

DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND THE LIGHT WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT, WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME HINT AT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FOR LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WHILE THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FROM
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING, WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOWER
DELAWARE BAY. MEANWHILE, ON OUR OCEAN WATERS, WAVES WERE RANGING
FROM 4 TO 7 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE LONG SOUTHERLY
FETCH, SEAS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FEET INTO FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SOME WATERWAYS FORECAST POINTS IN AND NEAR THE
WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED AND CONTINUE TO RISE WITH LINGERING
RUNOFF. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR
NOW AND TAKE A CLOSER LOOK A BIT LATER THIS MORNING FOR A POSSIBLE
EARLY CANCELLATION. A SPECIAL RIVER STATEMENT /RVS/ HAS BEEN
UPDATED FOR THE MILLSTONE RIVER AT GRIGGSTOWN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ009-010-012-013-015.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER/GORSE
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/GORSE
MARINE...IOVINO
HYDROLOGY...GORSE

000
FXUS61 KPHI 071030
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED
MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WAS OVER
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEAST MD AND NORTHERN DELAWARE.
HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND A SHORT
WAVE ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON, THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS ONLY BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL NOONTIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, WITH THE AREA UNDER COLD ADVECTION, ANY
PCPN THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED.

MAV TEMPS WERE ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH. ALSO THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH THERE COULD
BE SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT SOUTH. DUE TO THIS, I
HAVE INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY
SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH WITHIN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOK POTENT ENOUGH TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE AFTERNOON, THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS THAT THE 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KT SOUTH. THIS COULD
MEAN STRONG TSTMS THERE AND SPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

FRIDAY NIGHT, DRIER AIR RETURNS BEHIND THIS TROUGH.

IN GENERAL, MAV TEMPS WERE USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET START TO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SOME MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE A REPRIEVE FROM THE WET
CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS WE END THE WEEKEND AND
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER,
DRYING US OUT AND BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE
ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

BY 1030Z, THE WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.  HOWEVER, THERE WAS SOME COOL AIR TRAPPED AROUND KRDG AND
KABE.  CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED A BIT AT KACY, KMIV, KILG, KPHL AND
KPNE.  IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUED AT KTTN, KABE AND KRDG.

WHILE THE LOW CONDITIONS MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AT KRDG
AND KABE, CEILING HEIGHTS WILL VARY AT OUR OTHER SIX TAF SITES,
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST.

AN AREA OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO PASS OFF THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE AT 1030Z.  HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND IT MAY REACH OUR REGION
AROUND MIDDAY. ONCE IT PASSES, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ALL OF OUR TAF
SITES WILL RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY.  THERE COULD BE SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME, SO WE HAVE INCLUDED
CUMULONIMBUS IN THE FORECAST.

DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND THE LIGHT WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT, WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME HINT AT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FOR LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WHILE THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FROM
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING, WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOWER
DELAWARE BAY.  MEANWHILE, ON OUR OCEAN WATERS, WAVES WERE RANGING
FROM 4 TO 7 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING.  WITH THE LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH,
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FEET INTO FRIDAY.  AS A RESULT,
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN LESS THAN 6 HOURS CAN CAUSE
FLOODING IN THE AREA THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ009-010-012-013-015.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
HYDROLOGY...STAUBER

000
FXUS61 KPHI 070741
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED
MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WAS OVER
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEAST MD AND NORTHERN DELAWARE.
HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND A SHORT
WAVE ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON, THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS ONLY BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL NOONTIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, WITH THE AREA UNDER COLD ADVECTION, ANY
PCPN THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED.

MAV TEMPS WERE ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH. ALSO THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH THERE COULD
BE SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT SOUTH. DUE TO THIS, I
HAVE INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY
SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH WITHIN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOK POTENT ENOUGH TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE AFTERNOON, THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS THAT THE 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KT SOUTH. THIS COULD
MEAN STRONG TSTMS THERE AND SPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

FRIDAY NIGHT, DRIER AIR RETURNS BEHIND THIS TROUGH.

IN GENERAL, MAV TEMPS WERE USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET START TO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SOME MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE A REPRIEVE FROM THE WET
CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS WE END THE WEEKEND AND
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER,
DRYING US OUT AND BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE
ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

BY 0730Z, THE WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED THROUGH KACY AND KMIV, AND IT
WAS VERY CLOSE TO KILG AND KPHL.  CONDITIONS HAD BEGUN TO IMPROVE A
BIT AT THE FOUR LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE, IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AT KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH OUR
REMAINING TAF SITES BY 1000Z.  WITH ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN LIFTING
TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH, WE WERE HESITANT TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS VERY RAPIDLY IN THE TAFS INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OF ABOUT 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD
LIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST BY 1000Z OR 1100Z, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES IN THE
VERY NEAR TERM.

FROM MID MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.  IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE VFR RANGE FROM MIDDAY ONWARD.

OUTLOOK...
WHILE THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.  A COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING, WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOWER
DELAWARE BAY.  MEANWHILE, ON OUR OCEAN WATERS, WAVES WERE RANGING
FROM 4 TO 7 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING.  WITH THE LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH,
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FEET INTO FRIDAY.  AS A RESULT,
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN LESS THAN 6 HOURS CAN CAUSE
FLOODING IN THE AREA THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ009-010-012-013-015.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
HYDROLOGY...STAUBER

000
FXUS61 KPHI 070635
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED
MOST OF THE AREA OVENIGHT. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WAS OVER
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEAST MD AND NORTHERN DELAWARE.
HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND A SHORT
WAVE ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON, THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS ONLY BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL NOONTIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, WITH THE AREA UNDER COLD ADVECTION, ANY
PCPN THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED.

MAV TEMPS WERE ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH. ALSO THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH THERE COULD
BE SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT SOUTH. DUE TO THIS, I
HAVE INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY
SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH WITHIN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOK POTENT ENOUGH TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE AFTERNOON, THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS THAT THE 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KT SOUTH. THIS COULD
MEAN STRONG TSTMS THERE AND SPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

FRIDAY NIGHT, DRIER AIR RETURNS BEHIND THIS TROUGH.

IN GENERAL, MAV TEMPS WERE USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET START TO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SOME MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE A REPRIEVE FROM THE WET
CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS WE END THE WEEKEND AND
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER,
DRYING US OUT AND BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE
ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A NEW DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND THE SCA TIMING MAY BE
UPDATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN LESS THAN 6 HOURS CAN CAUSE
FLOODING IN THE AREA THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ009-010-012-013-015.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...STAUBER

000
FXUS61 KPHI 070125
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO THE DELMARVA AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ZONES AND OTHER PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. A FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTHERN DELAWARE...UP ALONG THE COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER...AND THEN UP TO SOMERSET
COUNTY NJ. MONMOUTH COUNTY WAS INCLUDED ALSO. AS HEAVY RAINS MOVE
UP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAY
PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINS TO CREATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THE REGION TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT, DRAGGING
ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS ON THURSDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE, RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WE MAY SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY.
THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO MAKES ITS WAY IN. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO
CLEAR SOMEWHAT AND SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN SE PA
AND CENTRAL NJ. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WE HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE SEEMS THAT WILL BE
ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND THE SUN LOOKS TO
MAKE YET ANOTHER APPEARANCE FOR US THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET START TO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SOME MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE A REPRIEVE FROM THE WET
CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS WE END THE WEEKEND AND
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER,
DRYING US OUT AND BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE
ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE SOON TO BE ISSUED TAFS WILL BE TAKING CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN INTO
IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THE MOST PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WILL BE FOR KABE AND KRDG
WHICH WILL HAVE A STEADY RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING. FOR THE LOCAL KPHL
AIRPORTS WE ARE EXPECTING A BAND OF RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z AND 06Z WITH A BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 06Z. IN
SPITE OF THE BREAK OF THE PCPN, UPWIND THERE ARE IFR CIGS THAT
SHOULD EITHER ADVECT IN OR REMAIN BECAUSE OF THE PCPN. FOR KACY AND
KMIV WE ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THE INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PASS TO OUR WEST. NEVERTHELESS THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE
BRINGING IN IFR CIGS. THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS DOWN IN THE NORFOLK
AREA THAT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR KACY AND KMIV.

BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z WE ADDED LLWS TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OF BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KTS IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINAL AREA.

TOWARD MORNING WE ARE EXPECTING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL REGION. THIS SHOULD BE
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN. IRONICALLY THE HEAVY RAIN
MIGHT LIFT THE CIGS. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY MORNING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE OFFSHORE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY CONTINUES ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN TERMINALS. IN ADDITION WITH LESS MOISTURE CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD BECOME VFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER DURING SATURDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA DURING SUNDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS CLOSER
DURING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS ARE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH SEAS ON
DELAWARE BAY 1 FOOT OR LESS AND 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN. A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN DOMINANT ALTHOUGH IT IS 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. WE AWAIT THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE SLIDES CLOSER OVERNIGHT, A
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. THERE IS A RATHER PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST OF THURSDAY,
THEREFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER, THE FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO INCREASE
ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GUSTS TO ABOUT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF THE WARM SECTOR
SLIDES FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION TO
ERODE SOME. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY AS IS ON THE OCEAN, BUT
EXTEND IT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO CATCH THE SEAS AS THEY SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED FOR AWHILE. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE LONG, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, AS WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE WAVE
HEIGHTS MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE LOWER DELAWARE
BAY, WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THEREFORE WE WILL DELAY THE START TIME OF
THE ADVISORY UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING THEN END IT ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY.
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF THE BAY AS IT
MAY END UP MORE MARGINAL HERE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS
BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN, BUT WILL MONITOR. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER DURING SATURDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING SUNDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS CLOSER DURING MONDAY.

&&



.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NJZ009-010-012-013-
     015.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE

000
FXUS61 KPHI 062314
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
715 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO THE DELMARVA AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A NICE BREAK FROM THE EXCESSIVELY WET WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OVER THE PAST WEEK. SOME AREAS HAVE BEEN LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE
SNATCHES OF THE SUN TODAY, WHICH HOPEFULLY HELPS TO CLEAR OUT
THOSE DREARY SKY BLUES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A BRIEF A PERIOD OF
LESSER CLOUDS AS THEY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

RAIN REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE CLOSER THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME SCATTERED RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MORE STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE NOTICED ON RADAR IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT IN NATURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND APPEAR TO
MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE
STORMS MAY MAKE IT TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
TONIGHT. WE HAVE LEFT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THESES AREAS ONLY
AS THE STALLED FRONT PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. SHOULD
THE FRONT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION THEN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAY
INCREASE NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THESE AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MODERATE AND MUCH WARMER THAN IS TYPICAL IN
EARLY MAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND SEEMED TO WORK
FAIRLY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THE REGION TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT, DRAGGING
ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS ON THURSDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE, RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WE MAY SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY.
THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO MAKES ITS WAY IN. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO
CLEAR SOMEWHAT AND SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN SE PA
AND CENTRAL NJ. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WE HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE SEEMS THAT WILL BE
ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND THE SUN LOOKS TO
MAKE YET ANOTHER APPEARANCE FOR US THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET START TO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SOME MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE A REPRIEVE FROM THE WET
CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS WE END THE WEEKEND AND
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER,
DRYING US OUT AND BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE
ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE SOON TO BE ISSUED TAFS WILL BE TAKING CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN INTO
IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THE MOST PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WILL BE FOR KABE AND KRDG
WHICH WILL HAVE A STEADY RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING. FOR THE LOCAL KPHL
AIRPORTS WE ARE EXPECTING A BAND OF RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z AND 06Z WITH A BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 06Z. IN
SPITE OF THE BREAK OF THE PCPN, UPWIND THERE ARE IFR CIGS THAT
SHOULD EITHER ADVECT IN OR REMAIN BECAUSE OF THE PCPN. FOR KACY AND
KMIV WE ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THE INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PASS TO OUR WEST. NEVERTHELESS THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE
BRINGING IN IFR CIGS. THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS DOWN IN THE NORFOLK
AREA THAT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR KACY AND KMIV.

BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z WE ADDED LLWS TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OF BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KTS IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINAL AREA.

TOWARD MORNING WE ARE EXPECTING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL REGION. THIS SHOULD BE
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN. IRONICALLY THE HEAVY RAIN
MIGHT LIFT THE CIGS. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY MORNING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE OFFSHORE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY CONTINUES ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN TERMINALS. IN ADDITION WITH LESS MOISTURE CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD BECOME VFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER DURING SATURDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA DURING SUNDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS CLOSER
DURING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS ARE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH SEAS ON
DELAWARE BAY 1 FOOT OR LESS AND 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN. A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN DOMINANT ALTHOUGH IT IS 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. WE AWAIT THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE SLIDES CLOSER OVERNIGHT, A
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. THERE IS A RATHER PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST OF THURSDAY,
THEREFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER, THE FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO INCREASE
ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GUSTS TO ABOUT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF THE WARM SECTOR
SLIDES FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION TO
ERODE SOME. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY AS IS ON THE OCEAN, BUT
EXTEND IT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO CATCH THE SEAS AS THEY SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED FOR AWHILE. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE LONG, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, AS WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE WAVE
HEIGHTS MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE LOWER DELAWARE
BAY, WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THEREFORE WE WILL DELAY THE START TIME OF
THE ADVISORY UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING THEN END IT ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY.
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF THE BAY AS IT
MAY END UP MORE MARGINAL HERE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS
BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN, BUT WILL MONITOR. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER DURING SATURDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING SUNDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS CLOSER DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IN PORTIONS OF SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ, AMOUNTS AS LOW AS 0.90
INCHES OF RAIN IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD COULD CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
EXPECTED AMOUNTS MAY NEAR THIS THRESHOLD BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
MORE THAN LIKELY OCCUR IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD INSTEAD OF A 6 HOUR
PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, WE
HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE AND
CONTINUE TO USE THE HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY      FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GORSE
HYDROLOGY...MEOLA

000
FXUS61 KPHI 062035
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
435 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO THE DELMARVA AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A NICE BREAK FROM THE EXCESSIVELY WET WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OVER THE PAST WEEK. SOME AREAS HAVE BEEN LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE
SNATCHES OF THE SUN TODAY, WHICH HOPEFULLY HELPS TO CLEAR OUT
THOSE DREARY SKY BLUES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A BRIEF A PERIOD OF
LESSER CLOUDS AS THEY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

RAIN REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE CLOSER THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME SCATTERED RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MORE STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE NOTICED ON RADAR IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT IN NATURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND APPEAR TO
MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE
STORMS MAY MAKE IT TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
TONIGHT. WE HAVE LEFT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THESES AREAS ONLY
AS THE STALLED FRONT PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. SHOULD
THE FRONT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION THEN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAY
INCREASE NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THESE AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MODERATE AND MUCH WARMER THAN IS TYPICAL IN
EARLY MAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND SEEMED TO WORK
FAIRLY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THE REGION TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT, DRAGGING
ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS ON THURSDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE, RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WE MAY SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY.
THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO MAKES ITS WAY IN. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO
CLEAR SOMEWHAT AND SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN SE PA
AND CENTRAL NJ. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WE HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE SEEMS THAT WILL BE
ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND THE SUN LOOKS TO
MAKE YET ANOTHER APPEARANCE FOR US THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET START TO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SOME MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE A REPRIEVE FROM THE WET
CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS WE END THE WEEKEND AND
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER,
DRYING US OUT AND BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE
ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SOME OTHER DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LIFT AND THIN SOME. DESPITE THE
DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE NOT AS PRONOUNCED THIS AFTERNOON AS EARLY THIS
MORNING, ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING IS
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A WEALTH OF LOWER CLOUDS. MOST AREAS ARE
VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR ALTHOUGH SOME IFR CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN AT KACY. THE LATTER MAY BE DUE TO A WIND OFF THE OCEAN
MAINTAINING A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE THERE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE BY JUST TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE AREA,
HOWEVER THE MOST CONCENTRATED RAIN MAY BE IN THE KRDG AND KABE AREAS
WITH MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS AT KMIV AND KACY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
HAVE INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE OVERSPREADING THE REGION TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN PRIOR TO 00Z ESPECIALLY AT KMIV
AND KACY. THE INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LOWER THE CEILINGS
AGAIN BACK TO IFR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
LATER TONIGHT, SOME WARMER AIR ARRIVING MAY ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD BASES TO RISE SOME ESPECIALLY AT KACY AND KMIV. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO, BUT GIVEN
THE MOISTURE, WE OPTED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE LOWER CEILINGS. THERE
MAY BE SOME THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
WARM FRONT. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WHEN THUNDER WOULD OCCUR,
THEREFORE FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED A CB DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND FOR
A TIME THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENT SOME THUNDER DEVELOPS THERE AND MOVES
OUR WAY. THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES, THEREFORE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY ALLOWING
THE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DELIVER A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE
LOWER CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR, WE BELIEVE THIS WILL HAPPEN STARTING
AROUND MIDDAY OR SO.

A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AND IT APPEARS THAT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE MORE MARGINAL AT THE
2,000 FOOT LEVEL. AS OF NOW, WE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT AROUND THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE SOME AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND THE WARM FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARD. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
FOR AWHILE, THEREFORE WE TONED BACK ON THE GUSTS. WE DID CARRY SOME
GUSTINESS STARTING AROUND 18Z THURSDAY FOR THE 30-HOUR KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER DURING SATURDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA DURING SUNDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS CLOSER
DURING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS ARE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH SEAS ON
DELAWARE BAY 1 FOOT OR LESS AND 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN. A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN DOMINANT ALTHOUGH IT IS 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. WE AWAIT THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE SLIDES CLOSER OVERNIGHT, A
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. THERE IS A RATHER PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST OF THURSDAY,
THEREFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER, THE FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO INCREASE
ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GUSTS TO ABOUT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF THE WARM SECTOR
SLIDES FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION TO
ERODE SOME. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY AS IS ON THE OCEAN, BUT
EXTEND IT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO CATCH THE SEAS AS THEY SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED FOR AWHILE. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE LONG, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, AS WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE WAVE
HEIGHTS MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE LOWER DELAWARE
BAY, WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THEREFORE WE WILL DELAY THE START TIME OF
THE ADVISORY UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING THEN END IT ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY.
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF THE BAY AS IT
MAY END UP MORE MARGINAL HERE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS
BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN, BUT WILL MONITOR. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER DURING SATURDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING SUNDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS CLOSER DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IN PORTIONS OF SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ, AMOUNTS AS LOW AS 0.90
INCHES OF RAIN IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD COULD CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
EXPECTED AMOUNTS MAY NEAR THIS THRESHOLD BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
MORE THAN LIKELY OCCUR IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD INSTEAD OF A 6 HOUR
PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, WE
HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE AND
CONTINUE TO USE THE HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE
HYDROLOGY...MEOLA

000
FXUS61 KPHI 061526
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1126 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL DRIFT
NORTH INTO DELMARVA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD AFFECT THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A FEW
MINOR EXCEPTIONS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
LOCATED IN NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LOW IMPACT AND SHORT LIVED
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH DELMARVA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.

VORTICITY AT 500MB SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED SPIN AND UVM THAT
THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE TIED TO. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH AS WELL WHICH HELP TO KEEP THE SHOWERS AROUND DOWN SOUTH. THE
LATEST UPPER AIR REPORTS FROM KLWX SHOW A FAIRLY DRY LAYER FROM
850MB TO 500MB SO MOST MOISTURE IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AT
THIS MOMENT, BUT ONLY IN LOCALES WHERE WE SEE THE ENHANCED RETURNS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AROUND, BUT WITH STRONG SEASONAL SUNSHINE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
DAY AS MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVER NE MD AND INTO SE PA
TOWARD EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.

USED CONSISTENCY WHEN FORECASTING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS, BUT
HAD TO TWEAK BOTH EARLIER IN THE PERIOD WITH THE ENORMOUS CLOUD
SHIELD IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PA FROM SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, THERE SHOULD BE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS TONIGHT. SOME OF THE RAIN MIGHT EVEN BE HEAVY ENOUGH STREET
FLOODING. MORE ON THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LISTED UNDER HYDROLOGY
BELOW.

ALTHOUGH I EXPECT SOME RAIN AND SCATTERED TSTMS ALL NIGHT. EARLY
TONIGHT, SOME SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD ADVECT IN FROM
THE WEST. THEN LATE TONIGHT ARE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED TSTMS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FCST TO
REACH 50 KTS AT H925 SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP ANY PCPN OVER THE AREA BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED TSTMS.

ONCE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. SOME MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

IN GENERAL MAV TEMPS WERE ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST AS THE
PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY A COLD FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CLEAR THE REGION AND FINALLY ALLOW FOR A DRIER
FCST FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SOME OTHER DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW /IFR/ DECK OF CLOUDS IS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND THINNING.
SOME AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AT KPHL AS WELL AS THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM
STERLING, VIRGINIA INDICATE THAT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE HAS
DIMINISHED. AS A RESULT, WE ARE EXPECTED THE IFR CEILINGS TO RISE TO
MVFR AROUND MIDDAY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN A VFR DECK GRADUALLY
OCCURRING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INSIST THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEREFORE AT LEAST A FEW TO
SCATTERED DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN. IT APPEARS WE
WILL FINALLY HAVE A TIME FRAME OF NO PRECIPITATION FOR AWHILE LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LINGERING DRIZZLE WANES. THE
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LOOSE. THESE WINDS MAY TEND TO PICK UP A LITTLE
BIT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE LIMITED DRYING, THIS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL HAVE INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE OVERSPREADING THE REGION
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN PRIOR TO 00Z ESPECIALLY
AT KMIV AND KACY. THE INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LOWER THE
CEILINGS AGAIN BACK TO IFR TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS WELL, AND WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS WITH THE
18Z ISSUANCE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDING IN A CB. THIS SYSTEM IS
STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES, THEREFORE MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
TO GET PULLED INTO THE AREA DURING THURSDAY AS THE STORM EXITS. THIS
WILL TEND TO ALLOW THE LOW CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ESPECIALLY
FROM MIDDAY ON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY REDUCED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK...
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS POTENTIALLY MORE IFR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL-KTTN SITES ON
SOUTHWARD. THIS CHAIN OF EVENTS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AGAIN AROUND 8 PM FOR THE OCEAN AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. FLAT PATTERN OVER THE WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAK HIGH BUILDS IN. LATER TODAY, A LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND COMBINE WITH AN OFFSHORE
HIGH TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING AND BUILD THE
SEAS. ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THURSDAY OR
LONGER. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE REAL BREAK IN SEAS/WINDS NOT COMING UNTIL AROUND MONDAY.

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OF LATE HAVE KEEP IT COOL AND THE SKIN
TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN TO 51 DEGREES AT BUOY 44009 AND AROUND 50 ON
THE BEACH. BACKBAYS WATERS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IN GENERAL FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE HIGH.
HOWEVER, IN PORTIONS OF SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ, AMOUNTS AS LOW AS 1.2
TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN UNDER 6 HRS COULD CAUSE FLOODING. WITH
RAIN AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TONIGHT, SOME AREAS MAY SEE
THESE AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, I HELD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES SINCE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND WHERE/IF A LOW
LEVEL JET FORMS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE THINKING THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
THAT IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE, I HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WATCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...EBERWINE/GORSE
MARINE...EBERWINE/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...