000
FXUS61 KOKX 091142
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BLOWING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER SUNDAY OFFERING A DRY BUT WINDY MOTHERS
DAY. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE VORT (FORCED BY A LONG LIVED
MCS TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC) RIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SLIDING EAST INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FORCING WITH THE FIRST WAVE...WILL HAVE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND
WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY COMING TO AND END FROM W TO E BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
CITY...NE NJ...AND EVEN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS INTERIOR CONN...MAINLY 70S FOR REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH FACING AND FAR SE
COASTAL AREAS. STRENGTHENING SW WINDS IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS CITY AND
POINTS W&NW...WITH BETTER HEATING.
IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...DESPITE MARGINAL TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS...AND STRONG SHEAR/WIND
FIELDS...THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF
FOCUS/FORCING FOR CONVECTION. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BEING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TODAY AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/UPPER JET STREAK THRU CENTRAL
NY. MANY INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLE
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE LATE DAY TIMING AND NORTHWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF FRONT/FORCING ARE WEIGHING AGAINST A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IF DAYSHIFT BEGINS TO SEE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS
FORCING...CONFIDENCE IN STRONG/SEVERE WX FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION SHOULD INCREASE.
THE NATURE OF FORCING...STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS...DEEP LAYER
UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE COALESCENCE INTO A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...EXTREME SW
CONN...AND EVEN NYC BEING MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. STRONG WINDS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS COULD ALSO POSE A LOW END HAIL
THREAT. WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING OF THE LINE THIS EVENING AS
INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND CONVECTION BECOMES ELEVATED AS IT MOVES
EAST AND INTERACTS WITH LOW-LEVEL MARITIME AIRMASS.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLGT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS FOR FAR NW PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE RISK IN HWO FOR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN NY/NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS AHEAD. ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EAST BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG CAA WILL
MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THINKING THAT LESS THAN IDEAL
OVERNIGHT TIMING AND WEAK PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL KEEP
WIND GUSTS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY...AROUND 40 MPH TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DRY BUT WINDY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON CU POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH ELONGATED
TROUGH DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG DAYTIME MIXING ON
SUNDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE WIND GUSTS WELL INTO THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 MPH. TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
DESPITE CAA WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S AREA
WIDE.
IMPORTANT NOTE...COULD SEE SOME ISSUES WITH DOWNED LIMBS AND WEAK
TREES TONIGHT INTO SUN...DESPITE SUB ADVISORY WINDS...DUE TO FULL
FOLIAGE ON MANY TREES.
NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA. CLEARING SKIES IN ITS
WAKE. GUSTINESS SHOULD RELAX...BUT GRADIENT APPEARS TIGHT ENOUGH
TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN CANADIAN POLAR AIRMASS.
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH AND THEN OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU...PARTICULARLY NE ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE AS WELL. TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE WITH CANADIAN AIRMASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY PATTERN FOR A CHANGE...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE ON THU. THAT SAID...INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY TUE AFTN AS AN H5 TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
CLOSE OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC ON WED AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THU...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THE TIMING OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GFS IS QUICKER AND BREAKS OUT SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THU...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON
FRI.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS EXITING THE CONNECTICUT TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOME IFR TO MVFR FOG AND STRATUS
LINGERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING BY 14Z...18Z AT KGON. WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE 20Z TO 00Z WITH SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES...AND LOCALLY IFR. WITH TIMING AND AREAL IMPACT
UNCERTAIN ONLY INDICATED WITH CB IN THE TERMINALS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...THEN
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTY WINDS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...WIND DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. VFR MON
THROUGH WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ON THE WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN STILL RUNNING 3
TO 6 FEET IN A SOUTHERLY SWELL...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY...AND WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE. GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE...MAY REACH TO GALE FORCE
AFTER 06Z AND REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE WATERS. THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS MAY LIMIT THE MIXING DOWN OF
THE HIGHER WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS...AND WINDS
GUSTS THERE MAY REMAIN AROUND SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WINDS SUBSIDE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...AND
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH...LOCALLY
HIGHER IN CONVECTION. AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH...LOCALLY
HIGHER IN CONVECTION...LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 090748
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BLOWING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER SUNDAY OFFERING A DRY BUT WINDY MOTHERS
DAY. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE VORT (FORCED BY A LONG LIVED
MCS TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC) RIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SLIDING EAST INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FORCING WITH THE FIRST WAVE...WILL HAVE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND
WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY COMING TO AND END FROM W TO E BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
CITY...NE NJ...AND EVEN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS INTERIOR CONN...MAINLY 70S FOR REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH FACING AND FAR SE
COASTAL AREAS. STRENGTHENING SW WINDS IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS CITY AND
POINTS W&NW...WITH BETTER HEATING.
IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...DESPITE MARGINAL TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS...AND STRONG SHEAR/WIND
FIELDS...THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF
FOCUS/FORCING FOR CONVECTION. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BEING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TODAY AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/UPPER JET STREAK THRU CENTRAL
NY. MANY INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLE
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE LATE DAY TIMING AND NORTHWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF FRONT/FORCING ARE WEIGHING AGAINST A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IF DAYSHIFT BEGINS TO SEE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS
FORCING...CONFIDENCE IN STRONG/SEVERE WX FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION SHOULD INCREASE.
THE NATURE OF FORCING...STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS...DEEP LAYER
UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE COALESCENCE INTO A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...EXTREME SW
CONN...AND EVEN NYC BEING MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. STRONG WINDS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS COULD ALSO POSE A LOW END HAIL
THREAT. WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING OF THE LINE THIS EVENING AS
INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND CONVECTION BECOMES ELEVATED AS IT MOVES
EAST AND INTERACTS WITH LOW-LEVEL MARITIME AIRMASS.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLGT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS FOR FAR NW PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE RISK IN HWO FOR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN NY/NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS AHEAD. ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EAST BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG CAA WILL
MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THINKING THAT LESS THAN IDEAL
OVERNIGHT TIMING AND WEAK PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL KEEP
WIND GUSTS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY...AROUND 40 MPH TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DRY BUT WINDY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON CU POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH ELONGATED
TROUGH DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG DAYTIME MIXING ON
SUNDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE WIND GUSTS WELL INTO THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 MPH. TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
DESPITE CAA WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S AREA
WIDE.
IMPORTANT NOTE...COULD SEE SOME ISSUES WITH DOWNED LIMBS AND WEAK
TREES TONIGHT INTO SUN...DESPITE SUB ADVISORY WINDS...DUE TO FULL
FOLIAGE ON MANY TREES.
NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA. CLEARING SKIES IN ITS
WAKE. GUSTINESS SHOULD RELAX...BUT GRADIENT APPEARS TIGHT ENOUGH
TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE IN CANADIAN POLAR AIRMASS.
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH AND THEN OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU...PARTICULARLY NE ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE AS WELL. TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE WITH CANADIAN AIRMASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY PATTERN FOR A CHANGE...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE ON THU. THAT SAID...INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY TUE AFTN AS AN H5 TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
CLOSE OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC ON WED AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THU...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THE TIMING OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GFS IS QUICKER AND BREAKS OUT SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THU...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON
FRI.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE TERMINALS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT LITTLE IMPACT TO VISIBILITIES
OR CEILINGS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE AT KSWF. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THERE IS
A CHANCE OF LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS FORMING OVER THE OCEAN AND
ADVECTING INTO THE KJFK AND KISP TERMINALS. TOO UNCERTAIN IF
CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREVAILING SO USED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 10Z TO 12Z.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
TIMING A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH IN THE WINDS AND
GUSTS DEVELOPING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...WIND DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY.
VFR MON THROUGH WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ON THE WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN STILL RUNNING 3
TO 6 FEET IN A SOUTHERLY SWELL...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY...AND WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE. GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...MAY REACH TO GALE FORCE
AFTER 06Z AND REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE WATERS. THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS MAY LIMIT THE MIXING DOWN OF
THE HIGHER WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS...AND WINDS
GUSTS THERE MAY REMAIN AROUND SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WINDS SUBSIDE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...AND
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH...LOCALLY
HIGHER IN CONVECTION. AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH...LOCALLY
HIGHER IN CONVECTION...LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 090540
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
140 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE END OF THE WET PATTERN IS IN SIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER SUNDAY OFFERING A DRY MOTHERS DAY. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS SKIRTING SOUTHERN CT
ZONES...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE AREAS...AND DRY ELSEWHERE. LOOKING OFF
TO THE WEST...MCS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH PER LATEST RADAR TREND AND FORECAST CORFIDI
VECTORS...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN WAS BREAKING OUT TO ITS NORTH FROM
NORTHERN IN INTO SW PA BEHIND PUSH OF H8 THETA-E...SO WILL STILL
HAVE CHANCE POP SPREADING W-E INTO THE ENTIRE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND LASTING INTO SAT MORNING. CENTRAL PARK IS UNLIKELY TO
SEE ANY PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SO THE STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS
WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP THERE SHOULD END AT 7...WELL SHORT OF THE ALL
TIME RECORD OF 12 STRAIGHT DAYS FROM AUGUST 1-12 2003.
WITH POCKET OF H7-H3 DCVA OFF TO THE EAST LATER SAT MORNING AND LOW
PRESSURE TRUDGING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN THE PCPN...HWVR ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE STRATUS. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS...MAXT FCST FOR SAT HAS BUST POTENTIAL.
MET IS ABOUT EIGHT DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV...FOR NOW PLAYED THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE EITHER ONE
MATERIALIZE DEPENDING ON WHAT SKY COVER EXISTS SHORTLY AFTER DAWN
SAT.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAWS CLOSER SAT AFTN RAISING THE CHC OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLGT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS
FOR NYC/NORTHEAST NJ AND POINTS SW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT
TOO FAVORABLE WITH MUCAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND LI BARELY
SUB-ZERO...HWVR BULK SHEAR OF 50 KT SUPPORTS SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING. MCS CURRENTLY MARCHING ACROSS WV AND WESTERN
VA WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS THROWN THIS WAY
NEGATING MUCH SUNSHINE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THEREFORE...OPTING
NOT TO INCLUDE ANY VERBIAGE IN THE HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC CYCLONE CONTINUES NE THRU THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN ALLOWING
FOR RAPID CLEARING DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. ISALLOBARIC FLOW PROMOTES
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOTHERS DAY AS SFC WINDS PUSH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MAX MOMENTUM TRANSFER BETWEEN
40-45KTS...WHICH USUALLY RUNS A TAD ON THE HIGH SIDE GIVEN PRIOR
EXPERIENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY PATTERN FOR A CHANGE...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE ON THU. THAT SAID...INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY TUE AFTN AS AN H5 TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
CLOSE OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC ON WED AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THU...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THE TIMING OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GFS IS QUICKER AND BREAKS OUT SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THU...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON
FRI.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE TERMINALS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT LITTLE IMPACT TO VISIBILITIES
OR CEILINGS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE AT KSWF. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THERE IS
A CHANCE OF LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS FORMING OVER THE OCEAN AND
ADVECTING INTO THE KJFK AND KISP TERMINALS. TOO UNCERTAIN IF
CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREVAILING SO USED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 10Z TO 12Z.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
TIMING A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH IN THE WINDS AND
GUSTS DEVELOPING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...WIND DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY.
VFR MON THROUGH WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA FOR THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS RIGHT AT FIVE FEET.
OPTED TO PEEL BACK EXPIRATION TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT UNTIL 6 AM
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT OR POSSIBLY GALES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WINDS PICK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. WAVES UPWARD OF EIGHT FEET ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA
GIVEN THE WRLY FETCH...SO TRENDED SEAS UPWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES.
MORE RAIN IS FORECAST SATURDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...PW
000
FXUS61 KOKX 090106
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
906 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE END OF THE WET PATTERN IS IN SIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER SUNDAY OFFERING A DRY MOTHERS DAY. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS SKIRTING SOUTHERN CT
ZONES...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE AREAS...AND DRY ELSEWHERE. LOOKING OFF
TO THE WEST...MCS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH PER LATEST RADAR TREND AND FORECAST CORFIDI
VECTORS...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN WAS BREAKING OUT TO ITS NORTH FROM
NORTHERN IN INTO SW PA BEHIND PUSH OF H8 THETA-E...SO WILL STILL
HAVE CHANCE POP SPREADING W-E INTO THE ENTIRE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND LASTING INTO SAT MORNING. CENTRAL PARK IS UNLIKELY TO
SEE ANY PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SO THE STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS
WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP THERE SHOULD END AT 7...WELL SHORT OF THE ALL
TIME RECORD OF 12 STRAIGHT DAYS FROM AUGUST 1-12 2003.
WITH POCKET OF H7-H3 DCVA OFF TO THE EAST LATER SAT MORNING AND LOW
PRESSURE TRUDGING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN THE PCPN...HWVR ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE STRATUS. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS...MAXT FCST FOR SAT HAS BUST POTENTIAL.
MET IS ABOUT EIGHT DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV...FOR NOW PLAYED THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE EITHER ONE
MATERIALIZE DEPENDING ON WHAT SKY COVER EXISTS SHORTLY AFTER DAWN
SAT.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAWS CLOSER SAT AFTN RAISING THE CHC OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLGT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS
FOR NYC/NORTHEAST NJ AND POINTS SW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT
TOO FAVORABLE WITH MUCAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND LI BARELY
SUB-ZERO...HWVR BULK SHEAR OF 50 KT SUPPORTS SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING. MCS CURRENTLY MARCHING ACROSS WV AND WESTERN
VA WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS THROWN THIS WAY
NEGATING MUCH SUNSHINE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THEREFORE...OPTING
NOT TO INCLUDE ANY VERBIAGE IN THE HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC CYCLONE CONTINUES NE THRU THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN ALLOWING
FOR RAPID CLEARING DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. ISALLOBARIC FLOW PROMOTES
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOTHERS DAY AS SFC WINDS PUSH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MAX MOMENTUM TRANSFER BETWEEN
40-45KTS...WHICH USUALLY RUNS A TAD ON THE HIGH SIDE GIVEN PRIOR
EXPERIENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY PATTERN FOR A CHANGE...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE ON THU. THAT SAID...INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY TUE AFTN AS AN H5 TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
CLOSE OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC ON WED AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THU...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THE TIMING OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GFS IS QUICKER AND BREAKS OUT SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THU...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON
FRI.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...WITH SEA BREEZES RELAXING EARLY
AND GENERAL S FLOW AOB 10 KT. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN OH/SW
PA DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH
WV AND WESTERN VA COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. NO LONGER
THINK IFR VSBY IS LIKELY...BUT MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THEN DEVELOPING
STRATUS IN ONSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE INTO SAT MORNING. APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD SPARK SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT
EVENING...THEN VFR THRU SUN. GUSTY WNW WINDS 25-35KT POSSIBLE FROM
LATE SAT EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRES WITH GENERALLY VFR MON-WED.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA FOR THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS RIGHT AT FIVE FEET.
OPTED TO PEEL BACK EXPIRATION TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT UNTIL 6 AM
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT OR POSSIBLY GALES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WINDS PICK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. WAVES UPWARD OF EIGHT FEET ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA
GIVEN THE WRLY FETCH...SO TRENDED SEAS UPWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES.
MORE RAIN IS FORECAST SATURDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...98
NEAR TERM/HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/98
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...98
000
FXUS61 KOKX 081954
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE END OF THE WET PATTERN IS IN SIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER SUNDAY OFFERING A DRY MOTHERS DAY. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WELCOME PERIOD OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE GRAY AND SOGGY DAYS
OF LATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 70S ACROSS NYC AND NRN
NJ...WHILE 60S RULE ELSEWHERE. BUILD-UPS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. NEAR TERM DETERMINISTIC MDLS ILLUSTRATE COVERAGE OF
RW WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SHALL INC DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS OVER ERN
PA AND TRACK INTO THE CITY AFTER DUSK. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES
IN THE RIBBON OF WRLY WINDS ALOFT...EXPECT THE HIGHEST PROB OF
RAIN TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. IF CENTRAL
PARK RECEIVES A 0.01 OF AN INCH PRIOR TO 12 AM SAT...IT WILL BE THE
8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RAINFALL /4TH GREATEST STRETCH ALL TIME/.
THE RECORD IS 12 STRAIGHT DAYS. IT APPEARS WE WILL TOP OUT AT NINE
DAYS.
WITH THE POCKET OF H7-H3 DCVA OFF TO THE EAST SAT MRNG AND LOW
PRESSURE TRUDGING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THEIR WILL BE A LULL
IN THE PCPN...HWVR ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE STRATUS DURING THE MRNG
HRS. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS...MAXT FCST FOR SAT HAS BUST
POTENTIAL. MET IS ABOUT EIGHT DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV...FOR NOW
PLAYED THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE
EITHER ONE MATERIALIZE DEPENDING ON WHAT SKY COVER EXISTS SHORTLY
AFTER DAWN SAT.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAWS CLOSER SAT AFTN RAISING THE CHC OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLGT RISK FROM THE CITY
SW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT TOO FAVORABLE WITH MUCAPES LESS
THAN 1.0KJKG-1 AND LI/S BARELY SUB-ZERO...HWVR BULK SHEAR OF 50 KTS
SUPPORTS SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS IF STORMS CAN GET GOING. MCS CURRENTLY
MARCHING ACROSS THE SHOW ME STATE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH DEBRIS
CLOUDS THROWN THIS WAY NEGATING MUCH SUNSHINE DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS. THEREFORE...OPTING NOT TO INCLUDE ANY VERBIAGE IN THE HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC CYCLONE CONTINUES NE THRU THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN ALLOWING
FOR RAPID CLEARING DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. ISALLOBARIC FLOW PROMOTES
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOTHERS DAY AS SFC WINDS PUSH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MAX MOMENTUM TRANSFER BETWEEN
40-45KTS...WHICH USUALLY RUNS A TAD ON THE HIGH SIDE GIVEN PRIOR
EXPERIENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY PATTERN FOR A CHANGE...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE ON THU. THAT SAID...INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY TUE AFTN AS AN H5 TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
CLOSE OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC ON WED AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THU...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THE TIMING OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GFS IS QUICKER AND BREAKS OUT SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THU...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON
FRI.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KDIX VWP HAS S/SSW FLOW TO 3-4K FT. WITH SEA BREEZE COMPONENT SFC
WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE S IN SOME CASES SE. TAFS INCLUDE WINDS
WELL S AND E OF GUIDANCE THRU THIS AFTN/EVE. WINDS OFF THE WATER
KEEPING THE REGION STABLE. ATTM...EXPECT ANY AFTN CU/SHRA TO
DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH THE CSTL TERMINALS. MAIN PCPN COMES THRU
04/08Z WITH UPPER LVL WAVE OVER WRN/CNTRL PA WHERE CONVECTION IS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING.
AFT 8Z...WEAK SFC LOW ATTEMPS TO DEVELOP SW OF KNYC THEN MEANDER
INTO WRN LI BY 15Z SAT. RESULT IS A LGT/VRB WIND FCST. IF SFC LOW
DOESN/T DEVELOP SLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED.
LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED FOR THE FIRST PART OF SAT SO MVFR FCST.
UPPER LVL WAVE ALLOWS FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN/EVE.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TSRA POSSIBLE SAT EVE THEN VFR THRU SUN. WNW WINDS 25-35KT
POSSIBLE AFT 6Z SUN THRU 00Z MON.
HIGH PRES WITH GENERALLY VFR MON-WED.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA FOR THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS RIGHT AT FIVE FEET.
OPTED TO PEEL BACK EXPIRATION TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT UNTIL 6AM
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT OR POSSIBLY GALES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WINDS PICK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. WAVES UPWARD OF EIGHT FEET ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA
GIVEN THE WRLY FETCH...SO TRENDED SEAS UPWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.
MORE RAIN IS FORECAST SATURDAY WHICH AGAIN BRINGS ANOTHER 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...98
HYDROLOGY...98
000
FXUS61 KOKX 081740
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
140 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS AFTN WITH SUNSHINE
THIS MRNG FADING BEHIND INCREASING MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TIME
HGTS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORT PCLDY-MCLDY CONDS THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTN. DESPITE THE FADING SUNSHINE MAXT SHOULD REACH THE M-U70S FOR
THE NYC METRO AREA WITH M60S ON ERN LI.
LOWERED POPS ACR THE CWA THIS AFTN...AS BL MSTR IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...WHILE ANY FORCING REMAINS OVER NWRN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA. RUC13 AND SREF PROB OF 0.01 OF QPF SUPPORT DRY WX...HWVR WITH
BILLOWING CU IN CENTRAL PA AND UPSTATE NY...ELECTED TO KEEP A CHC
OF RW W OF NYC AND SCHC POINTS E. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION PER LACK
OF SFC MSTR AND SREF LI PARAMETERS REMAINING POSITIVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE ASSOCIATED LOW MOVING OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE
10Z...WITH SHOWERS ENDING...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY SUNDAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY USED MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE THE BULK OF THE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS BOTH MON AND TUE AFTN. ONE THING TO NOTE IS NW FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH IS DEEPER ON TUE...BUT CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT AND VORT
MAXES MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SOMETHING. HAVE LEFT SCHC POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WITH DEEPER NW FLOW AND WEAKER
UPPER SUPPORT TUE...KEPT IT DRY.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON AND TUE
WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY AND DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...MORE
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND +4C BOTH WED AND THU...TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KDIX VWP HAS S/SSW FLOW TO 3-4K FT. WITH SEA BREEZE COMPONENT SFC
WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE S IN SOME CASES SE. TAFS INCLUDE WINDS
WELL S AND E OF GUIDANCE THRU THIS AFTN/EVE. WINDS OFF THE WATER
KEEPING THE REGION STABLE. ATTM...EXPECT ANY AFTN CU/SHRA TO
DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH THE CSTL TERMINALS. MAIN PCPN COMES THRU
04/08Z WITH UPPER LVL WAVE OVER WRN/CNTRL PA WHERE CONVECTION IS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING.
AFT 8Z...WEAK SFC LOW ATTEMPS TO DEVELOP SW OF KNYC THEN MEANDER
INTO WRN LI BY 15Z SAT. RESULT IS A LGT/VRB WIND FCST. IF SFC LOW
DOESN/T DEVELOP SLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED.
LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED FOR THE FIRST PART OF SAT SO MVFR FCST.
UPPER LVL WAVE ALLOWS FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN/EVE.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TSRA POSSIBLE SAT EVE THEN VFR THRU SUN. WNW WINDS 25-35KT
POSSIBLE AFT 6Z SUN THRU 00Z MON.
HIGH PRES WITH GENERALLY VFR MON-WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ONLY 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT
IN A SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH SAT MORNING...WILL CHANGE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL EXPIRE SAT MORNING...THEN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON.
SCT TSTMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS. SCA WILL
MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED SAT NIGHT/SUN.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MET
000
FXUS61 KOKX 081408
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1008 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS AFTN WITH SUNSHINE
THIS MRNG FADING BEHIND INCREASING MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TIME
HGTS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORT PCLDY-MCLDY CONDS THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTN. DESPITE THE FADING SUNSHINE MAXT SHOULD REACH THE M-U70S FOR
THE NYC METRO AREA WITH M60S ON ERN LI.
LOWERED POPS ACR THE CWA THIS AFTN...AS BL MSTR IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...WHILE ANY FORCING REMAINS OVER NWRN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA. RUC13 AND SREF PROB OF 0.01 OF QPF SUPPORT DRY WX...HWVR WITH
BILLOWING CU IN CENTRAL PA AND UPSTATE NY...ELECTED TO KEEP A CHC
OF RW W OF NYC AND SCHC POINTS E. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION PER LACK
OF SFC MSTR AND SREF LI PARAMETERS REMAINING POSITIVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE ASSOCIATED LOW MOVING OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE
10Z...WITH SHOWERS ENDING...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY SUNDAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY USED MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE THE BULK OF THE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS BOTH MON AND TUE AFTN. ONE THING TO NOTE IS NW FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH IS DEEPER ON TUE...BUT CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT AND VORT
MAXES MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SOMETHING. HAVE LEFT SCHC POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WITH DEEPER NW FLOW AND WEAKER
UPPER SUPPORT TUE...KEPT IT DRY.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON AND TUE
WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY AND DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...MORE
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND +4C BOTH WED AND THU...TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING GROUND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ON
TAP FOR REST OF THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SW AT 5-10 KT BY
MIDDAY...AND SEABREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS WHICH WOULD
TURN WINDS S.
SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WILL CARRY BKN CB GROUP IN TAFS...AS CONFIDENCE LOW IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS...AND CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE LOW
ATTM.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING ON
SHOWERS AND FOG.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
SUN...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ON TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ONLY 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT
IN A SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH SAT MORNING...WILL CHANGE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL EXPIRE SAT MORNING...THEN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON.
SCT TSTMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS. SCA WILL
MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED SAT NIGHT/SUN.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MET
000
FXUS61 KOKX 081113
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
713 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH
DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED TO 2 TO 3 MILES WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF
VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4 MILE. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE AND THEREFORE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR TODAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE ASSOCIATED LOW MOVING OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE
10Z...WITH SHOWERS ENDING...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY SUNDAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY USED MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE THE BULK OF THE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS BOTH MON AND TUE AFTN. ONE THING TO NOTE IS NW FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH IS DEEPER ON TUE...BUT CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT AND VORT
MAXES MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SOMETHING. HAVE LEFT SCHC POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WITH DEEPER NW FLOW AND WEAKER
UPPER SUPPORT TUE...KEPT IT DRY.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON AND TUE
WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY AND DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...MORE
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND +4C BOTH WED AND THU...TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING GROUND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ON
TAP FOR REST OF THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SW AT 5-10 KT BY
MIDDAY...AND SEABREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS WHICH WOULD
TURN WINDS S.
SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WILL CARRY BKN CB GROUP IN TAFS...AS CONFIDENCE LOW IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS...AND CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE LOW
ATTM.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING ON
SHOWERS AND FOG.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
SUN...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ON TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ONLY 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT
IN A SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH SAT MORNING...WILL CHANGE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL EXPIRE SAT MORNING...THEN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON.
SCT TSTMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS. SCA WILL
MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED SAT NIGHT/SUN.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MET
000
FXUS61 KOKX 080723
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
323 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH
DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED TO 2 TO 3 MILES WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF
VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4 MILE. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE AND THEREFORE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR TODAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE ASSOCIATED LOW MOVING OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE
10Z...WITH SHOWERS ENDING...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY SUNDAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY USED MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE THE BULK OF THE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS BOTH MON AND TUE AFTN. ONE THING TO NOTE IS NW FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH IS DEEPER ON TUE...BUT CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT AND VORT
MAXES MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SOMETHING. HAVE LEFT SCHC POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WITH DEEPER NW FLOW AND WEAKER
UPPER SUPPORT TUE...KEPT IT DRY.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON AND TUE
WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY AND DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...MORE
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND +4C BOTH WED AND THU...TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE IN PLACE AT KBDR/KISP/KGON THROUGH ABOUT
SUNRISE WITH 1/4SM VSBY AND VV001 CIGS. THERE MAY BE SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 10Z-13Z...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ONCE THE SUN COMES UP AND WINDS
START TO INCREASE. BY 13Z...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THEN
VFR NO LATER THAN 15Z.
MAINLY VFR CIGS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WITH OCNL MVFR VSBY THROUGH
MORNING. VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED BACK AT THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z.
SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WILL CARRY BKN CB GROUP IN TAFS...AS CONFIDENCE LOW IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF STORMS...AND CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE LOW ATTM.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRI NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS/FOG.
SAT/SAT NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
SUN...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ON TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ONLY 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT
IN A SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH SAT MORNING...WILL CHANGE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL EXPIRE SAT MORNING...THEN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON.
SCT TSTMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS. SCA WILL
MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED SAT NIGHT/SUN.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL
1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MET
000
FXUS61 KOKX 080523
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER IN DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO CONNECTICUT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE AROUND IN THE MOIST AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ZONAL UPPER LVL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE JET EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CONUS. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE 140 KT H2 JET STREAK APPROACHES THE
CWA. PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING SHOULD HELP DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY AFTN. STORMS
TRACK EWD AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
S/W WHICH SHOWS UP ON WV OVER THE PAC NW APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE
OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT ATTM. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA TO THE CWA. AS THE PCPN ENDS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
AM...H5 RIDGING BEGINS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH NW FLOW LIMITING
MOISTURE FEED TO THE CWA. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS SUN AFTN.
TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY A BLEND OF MET/GMOS. MOST
UNCERTAIN TEMPS COME DURING THE DAY ON SAT WHERE A LARGE SPREAD
EXISTS IN THE GUIDANCE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLOWER GFS
SOLN WITH THE S/W. FCST IS A COMPROMISE BLENDING IN
COOLER...CLOUDIER SOLN. IF THE GFS VERIFIES HIGHS NEAR 80 WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE THE BULK OF THE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS BOTH MON AND TUE AFTN. ONE THING TO NOTE IS NW FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH IS DEEPER ON TUE...BUT CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT AND VORT
MAXES MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SOMETHING. HAVE LEFT SCHC POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WITH DEEPER NW FLOW AND WEAKER
UPPER SUPPORT TUE...KEPT IT DRY.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON AND TUE
WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY AND DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...MORE
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND +4C BOTH WED AND THU...TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE IN PLACE AT KBDR/KISP/KGON THROUGH ABOUT
SUNRISE WITH 1/4SM VSBY AND VV001 CIGS. THERE MAY BE SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 10Z-13Z...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ONCE THE SUN COMES UP AND WINDS
START TO INCREASE. BY 13Z...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THEN
VFR NO LATER THAN 15Z.
MAINLY VFR CIGS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WITH OCNL MVFR VSBY THROUGH
MORNING. VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED BACK AT THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z.
SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WILL CARRY BKN CB GROUP IN TAFS...AS CONFIDENCE LOW IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF STORMS...AND CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE LOW ATTM.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRI NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS/FOG.
SAT/SAT NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
SUN...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ON TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED FOR DENSE FOG ON THE WATERS OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE
LONG ISLAND BAYS.
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THRU FRI WITH S SWELL
LINGERING.
NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS SHOULD COME FRI AFTN AND EVE...THEN A FINAL
ROUND LATE SAT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS ON SUN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY W WINDS AOA SCA LVLS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FRI. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL DEPEND
ON THE EXACT COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOC HVY RAIN.
ONE FINAL ROUND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND NIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH HVY RAIN POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NUMBERS BELOW REPRESENT CONSECUTIVE CALENDAR DAYS OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE DATA IS VALID THRU 5/7.
STATION... ...CURRENT... ...RECORD... ...CURRENT RANK...
KBDR 8 DAYS 12 (1972) 3RD
KEWR 7 DAYS 13 (2003) 5TH
KISP 7 DAYS 8 (2003) 2ND
KLGA 7 DAYS 11 (2003) 4TH
KJFK 7 DAYS 11 (1977) 4TH
KNYC 7 DAYS 12 (2003) 5TH
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ006>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
340-345-350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MPS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 080427
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1227 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER IN DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO CONNECTICUT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE AROUND IN THE MOIST AIRMASS... ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ZONAL UPPER LVL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE JET EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CONUS. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE 140 KT H2 JET STREAK APPROACHES THE
CWA. PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING SHOULD HELP DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY AFTN. STORMS
TRACK EWD AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
S/W WHICH SHOWS UP ON WV OVER THE PAC NW APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE
OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT ATTM. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA TO THE CWA. AS THE PCPN ENDS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
AM...H5 RIDGING BEGINS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH NW FLOW LIMITING
MOISTURE FEED TO THE CWA. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS SUN AFTN.
TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY A BLEND OF MET/GMOS. MOST
UNCERTAIN TEMPS COME DURING THE DAY ON SAT WHERE A LARGE SPREAD
EXISTS IN THE GUIDANCE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLOWER GFS
SOLN WITH THE S/W. FCST IS A COMPROMISE BLENDING IN
COOLER...CLOUDIER SOLN. IF THE GFS VERIFIES HIGHS NEAR 80 WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE THE BULK OF THE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS BOTH MON AND TUE AFTN. ONE THING TO NOTE IS NW FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH IS DEEPER ON TUE...BUT CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT AND VORT
MAXES MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SOMETHING. HAVE LEFT SCHC POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WITH DEEPER NW FLOW AND WEAKER
UPPER SUPPORT TUE...KEPT IT DRY.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON AND TUE
WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY AND DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...MORE
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND +4C BOTH WED AND THU...TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT HAS MOVED E OF NYC...AND NOW EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT
ON W-SW FLOW OF ABOUT 20 KT PER TEWR VAD WIND PROFILE...BUT CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY BEFORE MIDNIGHT PER KLDJ 02Z OB
JUST S OF KEWR. KISP/KGON SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN PREVAILING LIFR WITH
MOIST S-SW FLOW CONTINUING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD LIFT FRI MORNING AFTER SUNRISE...IN
GENERAL SW FLOW. BKN VFR CIGS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ARE A GOOD BET AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE E
ACROSS THE AREA. TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TERMINAL IMPACTS BEYOND
THAT ATTM.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT...THEN BRIEFLY WITH SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAINLY VFR SUN-TUE...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED FOR DENSE FOG ON THE WATERS OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE
LONG ISLAND BAYS.
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THRU FRI WITH S SWELL
LINGERING.
NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS SHUOLD COME FRI AFTN AND EVE...THEN A FINAL
ROUND LATE SAT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS ON SUN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY W WINDS AOA SCA LVLS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FRI. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL DEPEND
ON THE EXACT COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOC HVY RAIN.
ONE FINAL ROUND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND NIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH HVY RAIN POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NUMBERS BLW REPRESENT CONSECUTIVE CALENDAR DAYS OF MEASURABLE
PCPN. THE DATA IS VALID THRU 5/7.
STATION... ...CURRENT... ...RECORD... ...CURRENT RANK...
KBDR 8 DAYS 12 (1972) 3RD
KEWR 7 DAYS 13 (2003) 5TH
KISP 7 DAYS 8 (2003) 2ND
KLGA 7 DAYS 11 (2003) 4TH
KJFK 7 DAYS 11 (1977) 4TH
KNYC 7 DAYS 12 (2003) 5TH
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ006>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
340-345-350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 080258
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1058 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER IN DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED MOSTLY TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS COLD
FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE AROUND IN THE MOIST AIRMASS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE FRONT...AND COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORY BUT MAY ISSUE SPS TO THAT EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK CAA AS THE SFC FRONT
SAGS S OF THE CWA AFT 6Z. WITH RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY FOG.
ON FRI...ZONAL UPPER LVL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE JET EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CONUS. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE 140 KT H2 JET STREAK
APPROACHES THE CWA. PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING SHOULD HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY
AFTN. STORMS TRACK EWD AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
S/W WHICH SHOWS UP ON WV OVER THE PAC NW APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE
OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT ATTM. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA TO THE CWA. AS THE PCPN ENDS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
AM...H5 RIDGING BEGINS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH NW FLOW LIMITING
MOISTURE FEED TO THE CWA. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS SUN AFTN.
TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY A BLEND OF MET/GMOS. MOST
UNCERTAIN TEMPS COME DURING THE DAY ON SAT WHERE A LARGE SPREAD
EXISTS IN THE GUIDANCE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLOWER GFS
SOLN WITH THE S/W. FCST IS A COMPROMISE BLENDING IN
COOLER...CLOUDIER SOLN. IF THE GFS VERIFIES HIGHS NEAR 80 WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE THE BULK OF THE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS BOTH MON AND TUE AFTN. ONE THING TO NOTE IS NW FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH IS DEEPER ON TUE...BUT CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT AND VORT
MAXES MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SOMETHING. HAVE LEFT SCHC POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WITH DEEPER NW FLOW AND WEAKER
UPPER SUPPORT TUE...KEPT IT DRY.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON AND TUE
WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY AND DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...MORE
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND +4C BOTH WED AND THU...TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT HAS MOVED E OF NYC...AND NOW EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT
ON W-SW FLOW OF ABOUT 20 KT PER TEWR VAD WIND PROFILE...BUT CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY BEFORE MIDNIGHT PER KLDJ 02Z OB
JUST S OF KEWR. KISP/KGON SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN PREVAILING LIFR WITH
MOIST S-SW FLOW CONTINUING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD LIFT FRI MORNING AFTER SUNRISE...IN
GENERAL SW FLOW. BKN VFR CIGS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ARE A GOOD BET AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE E
ACROSS THE AREA. TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TERMINAL IMPACTS BEYOND
THAT ATTM.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT...THEN BRIEFLY WITH SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAINLY VFR SUN-TUE...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THRU FRI WITH S SWELL LINGERING.
NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS SHUOLD COME FRI AFTN AND EVE...THEN A FINAL
ROUND LATE SAT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS ON SUN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY W WINDS AOA SCA LVLS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FRI. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL DEPEND
ON THE EXACT COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOC HVY RAIN.
ONE FINAL ROUND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND NIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH HVY RAIN POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NUMBERS BLW REPRESENT CONSECUTIVE CALENDAR DAYS OF MEASURABLE
PCPN. THE DATA IS VALID THRU 5/7.
...STATION... ...CURRENT... ...RECORD... ...CURRENT RANK...
KBDR 8 DAYS 12 (1972) 3RD
KEWR 7 DAYS 13 (2003) 5TH
KISP 7 DAYS 8 (2003) 2ND
KLGA 7 DAYS 11 (2003) 4TH
KJFK 7 DAYS 11 (1977) 4TH
KNYC 7 DAYS 12 (2003) 5TH
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 080122
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
922 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER IN DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT EARLY
THIS EVE. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS HOLDING TOGETHER WHICH
WARRANTS THE INCREASE IN POPS. COLD FRONT INTO ORANGE COUNTY AS OF
21Z AND INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...SO COULD SEE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS POP THIS EVE.
HOURLY T/TD WERE OFF SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE COOLING EFFECT FROM
THE RAIN SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AFM/PFM/ZFP UPDATED.
PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE WITH ONLY AN ISOLD -SHRA BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH UPPER LVL DYNAMICS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK CAA AS THE SFC FRONT
SAGS S OF THE CWA AFT 6Z. WITH RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FOG IN THE FCST.
ON FRI...ZONAL UPPER LVL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE JET EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CONUS. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE 140 KT H2 JET STREAK
APPROACHES THE CWA. PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING SHOULD HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY
AFTN. STORMS TRACK EWD AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
S/W WHICH SHOWS UP ON WV OVER THE PAC NW APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE
OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT ATTM. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA TO THE CWA. AS THE PCPN ENDS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
AM...H5 RIDGING BEGINS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH NW FLOW LIMITING
MOISTURE FEED TO THE CWA. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS SUN AFTN.
TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY A BLEND OF MET/GMOS. MOST
UNCERTAIN TEMPS COME DURING THE DAY ON SAT WHERE A LARGE SPREAD
EXISTS IN THE GUIDANCE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLOWER GFS
SOLN WITH THE S/W. FCST IS A COMPROMISE BLENDING IN
COOLER...CLOUDIER SOLN. IF THE GFS VERIFIES HIGHS NEAR 80 WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE THE BULK OF THE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS BOTH MON AND TUE AFTN. ONE THING TO NOTE IS NW FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH IS DEEPER ON TUE...BUT CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT AND VORT
MAXES MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SOMETHING. HAVE LEFT SCHC POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WITH DEEPER NW FLOW AND WEAKER
UPPER SUPPORT TUE...KEPT IT DRY.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON AND TUE
WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY AND DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...MORE
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND +4C BOTH WED AND THU...TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW MOVING FRONT POISED TO ENTER NYC METRO AREA...WITH SOME DRIER
AIR EVENTUALLY MOVING IN ALOFT VIA W FLOW OF AROUND 15 KT JUST OFF
THE DECK. AS A RESULT HAVE FORECAST MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS
TONIGHT FOR MOST TERMINALS...WITH MVFR/OCNL IFR VSBY AFTER FROPA
WITH LIGHT SFC FLOW OF MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT AT KISP/KGON
WHICH SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN PREVAILING LIFR. CONFIDENCE FOR KLGA/KJFK
IN PARTICULAR IS NOT VERY HIGH...AND IF FROPA TAKES PLACE LATER THAN
FORECAST...PREVAILING IFR/LIFR THERE FOR A TIME TONIGHT IS STILL
A POSSIBILITY.
ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD LIFT FRI MORNING AFTER SUNRISE...IN
GENERAL SW FLOW. BKN VFR CIGS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ARE A GOOD BET AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE E
ACROSS THE AREA. TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TERMINAL IMPACTS BEYOND
THAT ATTM.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT...THEN BRIEFLY WITH SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAINLY VFR SUN-TUE...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THRU FRI WITH SWELL LINGERING.
STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK TO THE E.
NEXT ROUND OF STORMS FRI AFTN AND EVE...THEN A FINAL ROUND LATE
SAT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS ON SUN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY W WINDS AOA SCA LVLS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS WILL END FROM W TO E THIS EVE. HOURLY RATES OF UP TO 3/4 IN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HVY ACTIVITY E OF NYC.
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FRI. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOC HVY RAIN.
ONE FINAL ROUND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND NIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH HVY RAIN POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NUMBERS BLW REPRESENT CONSECUTIVE CALENDAR DAYS OF MEASURABLE
PCPN. THE DATA IS VALID THRU 5/7.
STATION... ...CURRENT... ...RECORD... ...CURRENT RANK...
KBDR 8 DAYS 12 (1972) 3RD
KEWR 7 DAYS 13 (2003) 5TH
KISP 7 DAYS 8 (2003) 2ND
KLGA 7 DAYS 11 (2003) 4TH
KJFK 7 DAYS 11 (1977) 4TH
KNYC 7 DAYS 12 (2003) 5TH
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 072150
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
550 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER IN DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT EARLY
THIS EVE. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS HOLDING TOGETHER WHICH
WARRANTS THE INCREASE IN POPS. COLD FRONT INTO ORANGE COUNTY AS OF
21Z AND INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...SO COULD SEE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS POP THIS EVE.
HOURLY T/TD WERE OFF SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE COOLING EFFECT FROM
THE RAIN SO ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AFM/PFM/ZFP UPDATED.
PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE WITH ONLY AN ISOLD -SHRA BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH UPPER LVL DYNAMICS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK CAA AS THE SFC FRONT
SAGS S OF THE CWA AFT 6Z. WITH RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FOG IN THE FCST.
ON FRI...ZONAL UPPER LVL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE JET EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CONUS. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE 140 KT H2 JET STREAK
APPROACHES THE CWA. PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING SHOULD HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY
AFTN. STORMS TRACK EWD AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
S/W WHICH SHOWS UP ON WV OVER THE PAC NW APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE
OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT ATTM. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA TO THE CWA. AS THE PCPN ENDS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
AM...H5 RIDGING BEGINS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH NW FLOW LIMITING
MOISTURE FEED TO THE CWA. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS SUN AFTN.
TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY A BLEND OF MET/GMOS. MOST
UNCERTAIN TEMPS COME DURING THE DAY ON SAT WHERE A LARGE SPREAD
EXISTS IN THE GUIDANCE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLOWER GFS
SOLN WITH THE S/W. FCST IS A COMPROMISE BLENDING IN
COOLER...CLOUDIER SOLN. IF THE GFS VERIFIES HIGHS NEAR 80 WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE THE BULK OF THE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS BOTH MON AND TUE AFTN. ONE THING TO NOTE IS NW FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH IS DEEPER ON TUE...BUT CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT AND VORT
MAXES MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SOMETHING. HAVE LEFT SCHC POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WITH DEEPER NW FLOW AND WEAKER
UPPER SUPPORT TUE...KEPT IT DRY.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON AND TUE
WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY AND DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...MORE
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND +4C BOTH WED AND THU...TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR. CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS
METRO AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULT
IN THE REFORMATION OF STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND EASTERN
TERMINALS.
STRATUS AND FOG LIFTS FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE...IN GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED SUB VFR IN SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SAT AFTN/EVENING.
SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THRU FRI WITH SWELL LINGERING.
STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK TO THE E.
NEXT ROUND OF STORMS FRI AFTN AND EVE...THEN A FINAL ROUND LATE
SAT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS ON SUN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY W WINDS AOA SCA LVLS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS WILL END FROM W TO E THIS EVE. HOURLY RATES OF UP TO 3/4 IN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HVY ACTIVITY E OF NYC.
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FRI. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOC HVY RAIN.
ONE FINAL ROUND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND NIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH HVY RAIN POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NUMBERS BLW REPRESENT CONSECUTIVE CALENDAR DAYS OF MEASURABLE
PCPN. THE DATA IS VALID THRU 5/7.
STATION... ...CURRENT... ...RECORD... ...CURRENT RANK...
KBDR 8 DAYS 12 (1972) 3RD
KEWR 7 DAYS 13 (2003) 5TH
KISP 7 DAYS 8 (2003) 2ND
KLGA 7 DAYS 11 (2003) 4TH
KJFK 7 DAYS 11 (1977) 4TH
KNYC 7 DAYS 12 (2003) 5TH
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 072010
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER IN DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROS WRN ZONES THIS AFTN...AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME NWD DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOC HVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AS THE CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS A LESS UNSTABLE AMS. THE
COLD FRONT IS THRU WRN ORANGE COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE
THIS EVE. PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE WITH ONLY AN ISOLD -SHRA
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH UPPER LVL DYNAMICS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK CAA AS THE SFC FRONT
SAGS S OF THE CWA AFT 6Z. WITH RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FOG IN THE FCST.
ON FRI...ZONAL UPPER LVL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE JET EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CONUS. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE 140 KT H2 JET STREAK
APPROACHES THE CWA. PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING SHOULD HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATM. TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY
AFTN. STORMS TRACK EWD AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
S/W WHICH SHOWS UP ON WV OVER THE PAC NW APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE
OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT ATTM. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA TO THE CWA. AS THE PCPN ENDS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
AM...H5 RIDGING BEGINS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH NW FLOW LIMITING
MOISTURE FEED TO THE CWA. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS SUN AFTN.
TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY A BLEND OF MET/GMOS. MOST
UNCERTAIN TEMPS COME DURING THE DAY ON SAT WHERE A LARGE SPREAD
EXISTS IN THE GUIDANCE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLOWER GFS
SOLN WITH THE S/W. FCST IS A COMPROMISE BLENDING IN
COOLER...CLOUDIER SOLN. IF THE GFS VERIFIES HIGHS NEAR 80 WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROS WRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE THE BULK OF THE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS BOTH MON AND TUE AFTN. ONE THING TO NOTE IS NW FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH IS DEEPER ON TUE...BUT CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT AND VORT
MAXES MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SOMETHING. HAVE LEFT SCHC POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WITH DEEPER NW FLOW AND WEAKER
UPPER SUPPORT TUE...KEPT IT DRY.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON AND TUE
WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY AND DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...MORE
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND +4C BOTH WED AND THU...TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR. CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS
METRO AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULT
IN THE REFORMATION OF STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND EASTERN
TERMINALS.
STRATUS AND FOG LIFTS FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE...IN GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED SUB VFR IN SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SAT AFTN/EVENING.
SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THRU FRI WITH SWELL LINGERING.
STRON TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK TO THE E.
NEXT ROUND OF STORMS FRI AFTN AND EVE...THEN A FINAL ROUND LATE
SAT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS ON SUN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY W WINDS AOA SCA LVLS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS WILL END FROM W TO E THIS EVE. HOURLY RATES OF UP TO 3/4 IN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HVY ACTIVITY E OF NYC.
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FRI. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOC HVY RAIN.
ONE FINAL ROUND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND NIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH HVY RAIN POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NUMBERS BLW REPRESENT CONSECUTIVE CALENDAR DAYS OF MEASURABLE
PCPN. THE DATA IS VALID THRU 5/7.
...STATION... ...CURRENT... ...RECORD... ...CURRENT RANK...
KBDR 8 DAYS 12 (1972) 3RD
KEWR 7 DAYS 13 (2003) 5TH
KISP 7 DAYS 8 (2003) 2ND
KLGA 7 DAYS 11 (2003) 4TH
KJFK 7 DAYS 11 (1977) 4TH
KNYC 7 DAYS 12 (2003) 5TH
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...AL/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...JMC
000
FXUS61 KOKX 071958
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER IN DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROS WRN ZONES THIS AFTN...AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME NWD DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOC HVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AS THE CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS A LESS UNSTABLE AMS. THE
COLD FRONT IS THRU WRN ORANGE COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE
THIS EVE. PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE WITH ONLY AN ISOLD -SHRA
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH UPPER LVL DYNAMICS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK CAA AS THE SFC FRONT
SAGS S OF THE CWA AFT 6Z. WITH RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FOG IN THE FCST.
ON FRI...ZONAL UPPER LVL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE JET EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CONUS. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE 140 KT H2 JET STREAK
APPROACHES THE CWA. PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING SHOULD HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATM. TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY
AFTN. STORMS TRACK EWD AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
S/W WHICH SHOWS UP ON WV OVER THE PAC NW APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE
OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT ATTM. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA TO THE CWA. AS THE PCPN ENDS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
AM...H5 RIDGING BEGINS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH NW FLOW LIMITING
MOISTURE FEED TO THE CWA. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS SUN AFTN.
TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY A BLEND OF MET/GMOS. MOST
UNCERTAIN TEMPS COME DURING THE DAY ON SAT WHERE A LARGE SPREAD
EXISTS IN THE GUIDANCE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLOWER GFS
SOLN WITH THE S/W. FCST IS A COMPROMISE BLENDING IN
COOLER...CLOUDIER SOLN. IF THE GFS VERIFIES HIGHS NEAR 80 WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROS WRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE THE BULK OF THE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS BOTH MON AND TUE AFTN. ONE THING TO NOTE IS NW FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH IS DEEPER ON TUE...BUT CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT AND VORT
MAXES MOVING THROUGH COULD TRIGGER SOMETHING. HAVE LEFT SCHC POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WITH DEEPER NW FLOW AND WEAKER
UPPER SUPPORT TUE...KEPT IT DRY.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON AND TUE
WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY AND DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...MORE
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND +4C BOTH WED AND THU...TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR. CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS
METRO AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULT
IN THE REFORMATION OF STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND EASTERN
TERMINALS.
STRATUS AND FOG LIFTS FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE...IN GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED SUB VFR IN SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SAT AFTN/EVENING.
SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TSTMS WILL END FROM W TO E THIS EVE. HOURLY RATES OF UP TO 3/4 IN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HVY ACTIVITY E OF NYC.
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FRI. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOC HVY RAIN.
ONE FINAL ROUND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND NIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH HVY RAIN POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NUMBERS BLW REPRESENT CONSECUTIVE CALENDAR DAYS OF MEASURABLE
PCPN. THE DATA IS VALID THRU 5/7.
...STATION... ...CURRENT... ...RECORD... ...CURRENT RANK...
KBDR 8 DAYS 12 (1972) 3RD
KEWR 7 DAYS 13 (2003) 5TH
KISP 7 DAYS 8 (2003) 2ND
KLGA 7 DAYS 11 (2003) 4TH
KJFK 7 DAYS 11 (1977) 4TH
KNYC 7 DAYS 12 (2003) 5TH
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...AL/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...JMC
000
FXUS61 KOKX 071734
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY AND REMAINS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
LOW PRES IS APPROACHING THE ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD
INTO ERN PA. ATM IS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS CNTRL NJ. AS
SFC TEMPS WARM THIS INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NWD INTO NRN NJ AND
SWRN NY. LATEST NAM IS A BIT HIGHER WITH THE SBCAPE THEN PREV
RUNS AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCAPE ACROSS THE SW
INTERIOR AT 21Z 1300J/KG. BRN 25-35. WITH WEAKENING CIN AND
FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE RR H3 JET...SCT TSTM INITIATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WRN ZONES THIS AFTN. STORM MOTION E AT AROUND
20KT. IF NAM VERIFIES...ISOLD SVR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SCT SHRA
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS. AS STORMS TRACK EWD...SOME DECREASE IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE AS CELLS ENCOUNTER A LESS UNSTABLE AMS.
FOG REMAINS ACROSS ERN LI AND SERN CT. VSBY STILL 1/4SM AT KGON.
KWST NOW ABV 1SM. ON LI...KFOK 1/2SM WITH KHTO 3/4SM. WILL NOT
ISSUE ADVY AS DENSE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD ATTM AND TREND IS
TOWARDS IMPROVEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY 00Z TO 04Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...SO EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA...FROM CENTRAL CANADA...FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND BEST SUPPORT TO THE
NORTH...SO WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS FROM FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AS TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH...THEN DIGS INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED NAM NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST SHOULD
GUARANTEE AT LEAST CHANCE POP SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER FROPA AND GOOD MIXING UP TO H8 WITH
30-KT MAX BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WILL NEED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP AGAIN FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. SCENARIO COULD REPEAT
ITSELF ON TUE...BUT WITH WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT PER 12Z GFS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...SO WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS NEARING +4C...TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...THEN GO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED WITH ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR. CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS
METRO AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULT
IN THE REFORMATION OF STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND EASTERN
TERMINALS.
STRATUS AND FOG LIFTS FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE...IN GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED SUB VFR IN SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SAT AFTN/EVENING.
SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN LOOK TO REMAIN AT 4-6 FT THROUGH SAT. WIND GUSTS
RELAXING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCA SEAS PERSIST.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS
THROUGH SAT...KEEPING SEAS ON THE OCEAN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH
SAT. SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN BY SAT EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT...AND
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND SURGE OF CAA WILL ALLOW FOR 25-30 KT
WINDS ON ALL WATERS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN ON
SUN/SUN EVENING. HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN NY AND
NRN NJ. ANY TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOC HVY RA. STORMS WILL TRACK
TO THE E AT AROUND 25 MPH.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER 1/2 INCH IS LIKELY WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NUMBERS BLW REPRESENT CONSECUTIVE CALENDAR DAYS OF MEASURABLE
PCPN. THE DATA IS VALID THRU 5/7.
STATION... ...CURRENT... ...RECORD... ...CURRENT RANK...
KBDR 8 DAYS 12 (1972) 3RD
KEWR 7 DAYS 13 (2003) 5TH
KISP 7 DAYS 8 (2003) 2ND
KLGA 7 DAYS 11 (2003) 4TH
KJFK 7 DAYS 11 (1977) 4TH
KNYC 7 DAYS 12 (2003) 5TH
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BG/JMC/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/JMC
CLIMATE...JMC
000
FXUS61 KOKX 071518 CCA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1115 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY AND REMAINS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
LOW PRES IS APPROACHING THE ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD
INTO ERN PA. ATM IS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS CNTRL NJ. AS
SFC TEMPS WARM THIS INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NWD INTO NRN NJ AND
SWRN NY. LATEST NAM IS A BIT HIGHER WITH THE SBCAPE THEN PREV
RUNS AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCAPE ACROSS THE SW
INTERIOR AT 21Z 1300J/KG. BRN 25-35. WITH WEAKENING CIN AND
FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE RR H3 JET...SCT TSTM INITIATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WRN ZONES THIS AFTN. STORM MOTION E AT AROUND
20KT. IF NAM VERIFIES...ISOLD SVR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SCT SHRA
WITH A FEW EBMEDDED TSTMS. AS STORMS TRACK EWD...SOME DECREASE IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE AS CELLS ENCOUNTER A LESS UNSTABLE AMS.
FOG REMAINS ACROSS ERN LI AND SERN CT. VSBY STILL 1/4SM AT KGON.
KWST NOW ABV 1SM. ON LI...KFOK 1/2SM WITH KHTO 3/4SM. WILL NOT
ISSUE ADVY AS DENSE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD ATTM AND TREND IS
TOWARDS IMPROVEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY 00Z TO 04Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...SO EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA...FROM CENTRAL CANADA...FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND BEST SUPPORT TO THE
NORTH...SO WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS FROM FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AS TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH...THEN DIGS INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED NAM NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST SHOULD
GUARANTEE AT LEAST CHANCE POP SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER FROPA AND GOOD MIXING UP TO H8 WITH
30-KT MAX BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WILL NEED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP AGAIN FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. SCENARIO COULD REPEAT
ITSELF ON TUE...BUT WITH WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT PER 12Z GFS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...SO WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS NEARING +4C...TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...THEN GO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED WITH ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR IMPROVING TO MVFR MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH.
KGON MAY REMAIN AT IFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
BY MID-AFTERNOON...MOST TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR.
SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS. KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO OBSERVE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
SW WINDS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO W WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
WITH MOIST ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...NAM
BUFKIT GUIDANCE AND LAV GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MENTION MVFR
VSBYS ACROSS KNYC TERMINALS AND IFR VSBYS AT COASTAL AND OUTLYING
TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 02Z. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED CONDITIONS
TO IFR AND LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRI-SAT...SUB-VFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
SUN...VFR
MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN LOOK TO REMAIN AT 4-6 FT THROUGH SAT. WIND GUSTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 25-30 KT LATER TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN A SURGE OF WEAK CAA BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF AS COLD
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON...WILL KEEP REGULAR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INSTEAD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS. DENSE FOG REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN MARINE LOCATIONS.
HAVE ALSO GONE AHEAD AND PLACED EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IN A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25
KT.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
SAT...KEEPING SEAS ON THE OCEAN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SAT. SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN BY SAT EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT...AND THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT AND SURGE OF CAA WILL ALLOW FOR 25-30 KT WINDS ON ALL
WATERS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN ON SUN/SUN EVENING.
HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN NY AND
NRN NJ. ANY TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOC HVY RA. STORMS WILL TRACK
TO THE E AT AROUND 25 MPH.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER 1/2 INCH IS LIKELY WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NUMBERS BLW REPRESENT CONSECUTIVE CALENDAR DAYS OF MEASUREABLE
PCPN. THE DATA IS VALID THRU 5/7.
...STATION... ...CURRENT... ...RECORD... ...CURRENT RANK...
KBDR 8 DAYS 12 (1972) 3RD
KEWR 7 DAYS 13 (2003) 5TH
KISP 7 DAYS 8 (2003) 2ND
KLGA 7 DAYS 11 (2003) 4TH
KJFK 7 DAYS 11 (1977) 4TH
KNYC 7 DAYS 12 (2003) 5TH
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MPS/PW
MARINE...BG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MET/JMC
CLIMATE...JMC
000
FXUS61 KOKX 071513
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1113 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY AND REMAINS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
LOW PRES IS APPROACHING THE ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD
INTO ERN PA. ATM IS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS CNTRL NJ. AS
SFC TEMPS WARM THIS INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NWD INTO NRN NJ AND
SWRN NY. LATEST NAM IS A BIT HIGHER WITH THE SBCAPE THEN PREV
RUNS AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCAPE ACROSS THE SW
INTERIOR AT 21Z 1300J/KG. BRN 25-35. WITH WEAKENING CIN AND
FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE RR H3 JET...SCT TSTM INITIATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WRN ZONES THIS AFTN. STORM MOTION E AT AROUND
20KT. IF NAM VERIFIES...ISOLD SVR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SCT SHRA
WITH A FEW EBMEDDED TSTMS. AS STORMS TRACK EWD...SOME DECREASE IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE AS CELLS ENCOUNTER A LESS UNSTABLE AMS.
FOG REMAINS ACROSS ERN LI AND SERN CT. VSBY STILL 1/4SM AT KGON.
KWST NOW ABV 1SM. ON LI...KFOK 1/2SM WITH KHTO 3/4SM. WILL NOT
ISSUE ADVY AS DENSE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD ATTM AND TREND IS
TOWARDS IMPROVEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY 00Z TO 04Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...SO EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA...FROM CENTRAL CANADA...FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND BEST SUPPORT TO THE
NORTH...SO WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS FROM FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AS TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH...THEN DIGS INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED NAM NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST SHOULD
GUARANTEE AT LEAST CHANCE POP SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER FROPA AND GOOD MIXING UP TO H8 WITH
30-KT MAX BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WILL NEED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP AGAIN FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. SCENARIO COULD REPEAT
ITSELF ON TUE...BUT WITH WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT PER 12Z GFS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...SO WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS NEARING +4C...TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...THEN GO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED WITH ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS BEGINNING TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT AND WITH RAIN MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA. BY 15Z (THOUGH POSSIBLY EARLIER IF TREND CONTINUES)...
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. KGON MAY
REMAIN AT IFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
BY MID-AFTERNOON...MOST TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR.
SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS.
SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN S...THEN SW BY LATE MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT...THEN TO W WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
WITH MOIST ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...NAM
BUFKIT GUIDANCE AND LAV GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MENTION MVFR
VSBYS ACROSS KNYC TERMINALS AND IFR VSBYS AT COASTAL AND OUTLYING
TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 02Z. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED CONDITIONS
TO IFR AND LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRI-SAT...SUB-VFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
SUN...VFR
MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN LOOK TO REMAIN AT 4-6 FT THROUGH SAT. WIND GUSTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 25-30 KT LATER TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN A SURGE OF WEAK CAA BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF AS COLD
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON...WILL KEEP REGULAR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INSTEAD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.
HAVE ALSO GONE AHEAD AND PLACED EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IN A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25
KT.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
SAT...KEEPING SEAS ON THE OCEAN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SAT. SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN BY SAT EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT...AND THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT AND SURGE OF CAA WILL ALLOW FOR 25-30 KT WINDS ON ALL
WATERS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN ON SUN/SUN EVENING.
HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN NY AND
NRN NJ. ANY TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOC HVY RA. STORMS WILL TRACK
TO THE E AT AROUND 25 MPH.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER 1/2 INCH IS LIKELY WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE NUMBERS BLW REPRESENT CONSECUTIVE CALENDAR DAYS OF MEASUREABLE
PCPN. THE DATA IS VALID THRU 5/7.
...STATION... ...CURRENT... ...RECORD... ...CURRENT RANK...
KBDR 8 DAYS 12 (1972) 3RD
KEWR 7 DAYS 13 (2003) 5TH
KISP 7 DAYS 8 (2003) 2ND
KLGA 7 DAYS 11 (2003) 4TH
KJFK 7 DAYS 11 (1977) 4TH
KNYC 7 DAYS 12 (2003) 5TH
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MET
CLIMATE...JMC
000
FXUS61 KOKX 071510
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1110 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY AND REMAINS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WILL UPDATE
THE FCST TO DROP POPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LIKELY POPS OUT
EAST AND CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT IS ALMOST COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SFC LOW
OVER CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CLOSE...WITH THE NAM NUMBERS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LEANED TOWARD THOSE..AS ONGOING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMPERATURES FROM WIDE RANGE DESPITE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY 00Z TO 04Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...SO EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA...FROM CENTRAL CANADA...FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND BEST SUPPORT TO THE
NORTH...SO WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS FROM FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AS TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH...THEN DIGS INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED NAM NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST SHOULD
GUARANTEE AT LEAST CHANCE POP SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER FROPA AND GOOD MIXING UP TO H8 WITH
30-KT MAX BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WILL NEED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP AGAIN FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. SCENARIO COULD REPEAT
ITSELF ON TUE...BUT WITH WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT PER 12Z GFS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...SO WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS NEARING +4C...TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...THEN GO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED WITH ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR IMPROVING TO MVFR MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH.
KGON MAY REMAIN AT IFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
BY MID-AFTERNOON...MOST TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR.
SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS. KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO OBSERVE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
SW WINDS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO W WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
WITH MOIST ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...NAM
BUFKIT GUIDANCE AND LAV GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MENTION MVFR
VSBYS ACROSS KNYC TERMINALS AND IFR VSBYS AT COASTAL AND OUTLYING
TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 02Z. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED CONDITIONS
TO IFR AND LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRI-SAT...SUB-VFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
SUN...VFR
MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN LOOK TO REMAIN AT 4-6 FT THROUGH SAT. WIND GUSTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 25-30 KT LATER TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN A SURGE OF WEAK CAA BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF AS COLD
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON...WILL KEEP REGULAR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INSTEAD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS. DENSE FOG REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN MARINE LOCATIONS.
HAVE ALSO GONE AHEAD AND PLACED EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IN A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25
KT.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
SAT...KEEPING SEAS ON THE OCEAN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SAT. SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN BY SAT EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT...AND THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT AND SURGE OF CAA WILL ALLOW FOR 25-30 KT WINDS ON ALL
WATERS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN ON SUN/SUN EVENING.
HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONE QUARTER TO 1/2 INCH LIKELY TODAY...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER 1/2
INCH IS LIKELY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY SUNDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MPS/PW
MARINE...BG/JMC/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET
000
FXUS61 KOKX 071156
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
756 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY AND REMAINS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WILL UPDATE
THE FCST TO DROP POPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LIKELY POPS OUT
EAST AND CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT IS ALMOST COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SFC LOW
OVER CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CLOSE...WITH THE NAM NUMBERS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LEANED TOWARD THOSE..AS ONGOING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMPERATURES FROM WIDE RANGE DESPITE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY 00Z TO 04Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...SO EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA...FROM CENTRAL CANADA...FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND BEST SUPPORT TO THE
NORTH...SO WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS FROM FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AS TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH...THEN DIGS INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED NAM NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST SHOULD
GUARANTEE AT LEAST CHANCE POP SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER FROPA AND GOOD MIXING UP TO H8 WITH
30-KT MAX BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WILL NEED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP AGAIN FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. SCENARIO COULD REPEAT
ITSELF ON TUE...BUT WITH WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT PER 12Z GFS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...SO WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS NEARING +4C...TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...THEN GO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED WITH ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS BEGINNING TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT AND WITH RAIN MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA. BY 15Z (THOUGH POSSIBLY EARLIER IF TREND CONTINUES)...
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. KGON MAY
REMAIN AT IFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
BY MID-AFTERNOON...MOST TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR.
SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS.
SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN S...THEN SW BY LATE MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT...THEN TO W WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
WITH MOIST ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...NAM
BUFKIT GUIDANCE AND LAV GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MENTION MVFR
VSBYS ACROSS KNYC TERMINALS AND IFR VSBYS AT COASTAL AND OUTLYING
TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 02Z. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED CONDITIONS
TO IFR AND LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRI-SAT...SUB-VFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
SUN...VFR
MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN LOOK TO REMAIN AT 4-6 FT THROUGH SAT. WIND GUSTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 25-30 KT LATER TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN A SURGE OF WEAK CAA BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF AS COLD
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON...WILL KEEP REGULAR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INSTEAD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.
HAVE ALSO GONE AHEAD AND PLACED EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IN A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25
KT.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
SAT...KEEPING SEAS ON THE OCEAN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SAT. SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN BY SAT EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT...AND THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT AND SURGE OF CAA WILL ALLOW FOR 25-30 KT WINDS ON ALL
WATERS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN ON SUN/SUN EVENING.
HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONE QUARTER TO 1/2 INCH LIKELY TODAY...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER 1/2
INCH IS LIKELY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY SUNDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET/MPS
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MET
000
FXUS61 KOKX 070808
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
408 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY AND REMAINS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WAS TRACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WILL PASS WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...13Z TO 14Z. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. SYSTEM HANDLED BEST BY NAM. WITH
BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE CAPE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING. HEAVY
RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT...ESPECIALLY
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING AS JET TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER
12Z. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CLOSE...WITH THE NAM NUMBERS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LEANED TOWARD THOSE..AS ONGOING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMPERATURES FROM WIDE RANGE DESPITE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY 00Z TO 04Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...SO EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA...FROM CENTRAL CANADA...FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND BEST SUPPORT TO THE
NORTH...SO WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS FROM FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AS TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH...THEN DIGS INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED NAM NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST SHOULD
GUARANTEE AT LEAST CHANCE POP SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER FROPA AND GOOD MIXING UP TO H8 WITH
30-KT MAX BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WILL NEED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP AGAIN FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. SCENARIO COULD REPEAT
ITSELF ON TUE...BUT WITH WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT PER 12Z GFS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...SO WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS NEARING +4C...TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...THEN GO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED WITH ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WITH THIS NEXT
WAVE...THE TERMINALS CAN EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
ABOUT 10-14Z.
BY LATE MORNING...CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO LOW-END MVFR...THEN
GRADUALLY TO VFR IN A BKN MID-DECK BY AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON
ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...SO WILL REMOVE TEMPO CB GROUP FROM 06Z
TAF PACKAGE. KGON CIGS WILL REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH 50+KT LLJ...HAVE KEPT THE LLWS MENTION IN THE TAFS THROUGH
EARLY MORNING.
SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN S...THEN SW BY LATE MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT...THEN TO W WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
WITH MOIST ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...NAM
BUFKIT GUIDANCE AND LAV GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MENTION MVFR
VSBYS ACROSS KNYC TERMINALS AND IFR VSBYS AT COASTAL AND OUTLYING
TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 02Z. FOR CIGS...WILL ONLY CARRY
SCT001-002 FOR NOW...BUT THAT COULD EASILY GO BKN.
KGON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-VFR TONIGHT AND WILL MOST LIKELY GO
IFR AND LOWER IN FOG/STRATUS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
TONIGHT...IFR IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SAT...SUB-VFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
SUN...VFR
MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN LOOK TO REMAIN AT 4-6 FT THROUGH SAT. WIND GUSTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 25-30 KT LATER TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN A SURGE OF WEAK CAA BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF AS COLD
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON...WILL KEEP REGULAR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INSTEAD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.
HAVE ALSO GONE AHEAD AND PLACED EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IN A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25
KT.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
SAT...KEEPING SEAS ON THE OCEAN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SAT. SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN BY SAT EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT...AND THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT AND SURGE OF CAA WILL ALLOW FOR 25-30 KT WINDS ON ALL
WATERS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN ON SUN/SUN EVENING.
HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONE QUARTER TO 1/2 INCH LIKELY TODAY...MAINLY THIS
MORNING...ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER 1/2
INCH IS LIKELY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY SUNDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MET
000
FXUS61 KOKX 070628 CCA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
228 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
LASTING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL A TAD SOONER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. BASED ON THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
WORDING OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE OVER NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY NOTING FORECAST LOW LEVEL THETA-E POOLING AND APPROACH OF
FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 100 KT 300 MB JET. NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES SUGGEST THAT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION COULD
BECOME ELEVATED AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (WHERE
MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION)...HOWEVER NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT PRESSES EAST DUE TO STRENGTH
OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ZONES WHERE IMPACT OF STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
SE FLOW IS THE LEAST. AS A RESULT HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED MINS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH THE LARGEST CHANCE OVER LONG
ISLAND/COASTAL SE CT...WHERE CURRENT TEMPS CURRENTLY UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NY STATE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREFORE...WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY MORNING. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE REGION.
LOOKING AT 18Z AND EARLY OUT PUT FORM 00Z RUNS...APPEARS WILL HAVE
THETA-E RIDGE BUILD INTO NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH THAT
REGION ALSO IN FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF APPROACHING 110 KT
300 MB JET. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST 200-500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THAT AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED POPS OVER AREAS MAINLY FROM NYC
METRO ON N AND W TO LIKELY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST SHOULD
GUARANTEE AT LEAST CHANCE POP SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER FROPA AND GOOD MIXING UP TO H8 WITH
30-KT MAX BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WILL NEED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP AGAIN FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. SCENARIO COULD REPEAT
ITSELF ON TUE...BUT WITH WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT PER 12Z GFS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...SO WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS NEARING +4C...TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...THEN GO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED WITH ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/BR THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT
HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SUB-IFR CIGS/VSBYS
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OCNL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
BRIEF...HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FIRST WAVE OF STORMS IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE TERMINALS
NOW...BUT ANOTHER AREA IS TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL EXPECT A BRIEF RESPITE IN HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER...THEN
ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN/STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN ABOUT 10-14Z.
BY LATE MORNING...CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO LOW-END MVFR...THEN
GRADUALLY TO VFR IN A BKN MID-DECK BY AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON
ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...SO WILL REMOVE TEMPO CB GROUP FROM 06Z
TAF PACKAGE. KGON CIGS WILL REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH 50+KT LLJ...HAVE KEPT THE LLWS MENTION IN THE TAFS THROUGH
EARLY MORNING.
SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN S...THEN SW BY LATE MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT...THEN TO W WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
WITH MOIST ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...NAM
BUFKIT GUIDANCE AND LAV GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MENTION MVFR
VSBYS ACROSS KNYC TERMINALS AND IFR VSBYS AT COASTAL AND OUTLYING
TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 02Z. FOR CIGS...WILL ONLY CARRY
SCT001-002 FOR NOW...BUT THAT COULD EASILY GO BKN.
KGON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-VFR TONIGHT AND WILL MOST LIKELY GO
IFR AND LOWER IN FOG/STRATUS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
TONIGHT...IFR IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SAT...SUB-VFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
SUN...VFR
MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO REFLECT CHANGES IN WEATHER
GRIDS NOTED ABOVE.
SEAS SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS AHEAD
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WAVE WATCH III HAS INITIALIZED WELL
AFTER RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH PAST FEW RUNS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE...SO WILL EXTEND SCA THROUGH THU
NIGHT FOR NOW.
A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL
OTHER WATERS (LI SOUND/BAYS/HARBOR) WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL ON THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS KICKING UP
DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD STILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS...MAINLY ON
THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET AND ALSO ALONG/CLOSE TO SOUTH FACING
SHORES DURING THE DAY VIA WIND GUSTS OVER NEARBY LAND AREAS.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OVERNIGHT. HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PFM
NEAR TERM...PFM
SHORT TERM...BC/PFM
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BG/PFM/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC
000
FXUS61 KOKX 070541
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
LASTING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL A TAD SOONER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. BASED ON THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
WORDING OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE OVER NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY NOTING FORECAST LOW LEVEL THETA-E POOLING AND APPROACH OF
FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 100 KT 300 MB JET. NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES SUGGEST THAT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION COULD
BECOME ELEVATED AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (WHERE
MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION)...HOWEVER NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT PRESSES EAST DUE TO STRENGTH
OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ZONES WHERE IMPACT OF STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
SE FLOW IS THE LEAST. AS A RESULT HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED MINS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH THE LARGEST CHANCE OVER LONG
ISLAND/COASTAL SE CT...WHERE CURRENT TEMPS CURRENTLY UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NY STATE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREFORE...WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY MORNING. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE REGION.
LOOKING AT 18Z AND EARLY OUT PUT FORM 00Z RUNS...APPEARS WILL HAVE
THETA-E RIDGE BUILD INTO NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH THAT
REGION ALSO IN FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF APPROACHING 110 KT
300 MB JET. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST 200-500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THAT AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED POPS OVER AREAS MAINLY FROM NYC
METRO ON N AND W TO LIKELY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST SHOULD
GUARANTEE AT LEAST CHANCE POP SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER FROPA AND GOOD MIXING UP TO H8 WITH
30-KT MAX BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WILL NEED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP AGAIN FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. SCENARIO COULD REPEAT
ITSELF ON TUE...BUT WITH WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT PER 12Z GFS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...SO WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS NEARING +4C...TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...THEN GO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED WITH ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/BR THROUGH MON MORNING...BUT HEAVIER
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SUB-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIEST
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OCNL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
BRIEF...HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FIRST WAVE OF STORMS IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE TERMINALS
NOW...BUT ANOTHER AREA IS TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL EXPECT A BRIEF RESPITE IN HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER...THEN
ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN/STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN ABOUT 10-14Z.
BY LATE MORNING...CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO LOW-END MVFR...THEN
GRADUALLY TO VFR IN A BKN MID-DECK BY AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON
ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...SO WILL REMOVE TEMPO CB GROUP FROM 06Z
TAF PACKAGE. KGON CIGS WILL REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH 50+KT LLJ...HAVE KEPT THE LLWS MENTION IN THE TAFS THROUGH
EARLY MORNING.
SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN S...THEN SW BY LATE MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT...THEN TO W WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
WITH MOIST ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...NAM
BUFKIT GUIDANCE AND LAV GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MENTION MVFR
VSBYS ACROSS KNYC TERMINALS AND IFR VSBYS AT COASTAL AND OUTLYING
TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 02Z. FOR CIGS...WILL ONLY CARRY
SCT001-002 FOR NOW...BUT THAT COULD EASILY GO BKN.
KGON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-VFR TONIGHT AND WILL MOST LIKELY GO
IFR AND LOWER IN FOG/STRATUS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
TONIGHT...IFR IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SAT...SUB-VFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
SUN...VFR
MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO REFLECT CHANGES IN WEATHER
GRIDS NOTED ABOVE.
SEAS SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS AHEAD
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WAVE WATCH III HAS INITIALIZED WELL
AFTER RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH PAST FEW RUNS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE...SO WILL EXTEND SCA THROUGH THU
NIGHT FOR NOW.
A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL
OTHER WATERS (LI SOUND/BAYS/HARBOR) WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL ON THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS KICKING UP
DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD STILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS...MAINLY ON
THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET AND ALSO ALONG/CLOSE TO SOUTH FACING
SHORES DURING THE DAY VIA WIND GUSTS OVER NEARBY LAND AREAS.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OVERNIGHT. HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PFM
NEAR TERM...PFM
SHORT TERM...BC/PFM
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BG/PFM/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC
000
FXUS61 KOKX 070322
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1122 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
LASTING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL A TAD SOONER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. BASED ON THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
WORDING OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE OVER NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY NOTING FORECAST LOW LEVEL THETA-E POOLING AND APPROACH OF
FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 100 KT 300 MB JET. NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES SUGGEST THAT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION COULD
BECOME ELEVATED AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (WHERE
MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION)...HOWEVER NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT PRESSES EAST DUE TO STRENGTH
OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ZONES WHERE IMPACT OF STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
SE FLOW IS THE LEAST. AS A RESULT HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED MINS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH THE LARGEST CHANCE OVER LONG
ISLAND/COASTAL SE CT...WHERE CURRENT TEMPS CURRENTLY UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NY STATE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREFORE...WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY MORNING. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE REGION.
LOOKING AT 18Z AND EARLY OUT PUT FORM 00Z RUNS...APPEARS WILL HAVE
THETA-E RIDGE BUILD INTO NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH THAT
REGION ALSO IN FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF APPROACHING 110 KT
300 MB JET. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST 200-500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THAT AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED POPS OVER AREAS MAINLY FROM NYC
METRO ON N AND W TO LIKELY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST SHOULD
GUARANTEE AT LEAST CHANCE POP SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER FROPA AND GOOD MIXING UP TO H8 WITH
30-KT MAX BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WILL NEED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP AGAIN FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. SCENARIO COULD REPEAT
ITSELF ON TUE...BUT WITH WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT PER 12Z GFS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...SO WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS NEARING +4C...TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...THEN GO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED WITH ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR INTO TAFS ACROSS LONG ISLAND/CT AND
NYC METRO TERMINALS EXCEPT KHPN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE NEXT AREA OF RAIN...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...MOVES IN...THEN BECOMES IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SE FLOW INCREASES INFLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
BEST TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS OVERNIGHT REFLECTED BY CB IN
TEMPO GROUP. SHOULD HAVE SOME LIGHTENING UP OF RAIN LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT...THEN NEXT BATCH OF STEADY RAIN WITH POSSIBLY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN DURING THE MORNING PUSH (THUNDER MORE
LIKELY SO CB IN PREVAILING VICE TEMPO GROUP)...IFR WITH LIFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. THIS BATCH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING..ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN TO LOW
END VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON (THOUGH EASTERN TERMINALS STILL COULD
HAVE SOME LINGERING MVFR VIS INTO MID AFTERNOON). THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM NYC METRO ON N
AND W THAT IT WARRANTS A TEMPO CB GROUP FOR CHANCE OF THUNDER
(SHOULD SEE CEILINGS LIFT TO MID DECK IF NOT SOME BREAKS OF SUN
THERE)...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TERMINALS (MARINE
INFLUENCE). THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT KGON WHERE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
WINDS BECOME SE AT AROUND 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO 10
KT OVERNIGHT...WITH TERMINALS N OF LONG ISLAND SOUND BACKING TO
ESE. BY THE MORNING PUSH WINDS BECOMES 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH...THEN VEERS TO THE SSW BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU NIGHT: VFR.
FRI AND SAT: MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SUN: VFR.
MON: POSSIBLE SUB VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO REFLECT CHANGES IN WEATHER
GRIDS NOTED ABOVE.
SEAS SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS AHEAD
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WAVE WATCH III HAS INITIALIZED WELL
AFTER RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH PAST FEW RUNS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE...SO WILL EXTEND SCA THROUGH THU
NIGHT FOR NOW.
A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL
OTHER WATERS (LI SOUND/BAYS/HARBOR) WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL ON THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS KICKING UP
DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD STILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS...MAINLY ON
THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET AND ALSO ALONG/CLOSE TO SOUTH FACING
SHORES DURING THE DAY VIA WIND GUSTS OVER NEARBY LAND AREAS.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OVERNIGHT. HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PFM
NEAR TERM...PFM
SHORT TERM...BC/PFM
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...PFM
MARINE...BG/PFM/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC
000
FXUS61 KOKX 070255
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1055 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
LASTING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL A TAD SOONER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. BASED ON THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
WORDING OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE OVER NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY NOTING FORECAST LOW LEVEL THETA-E POOLING AND APPROACH OF
FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 100 KT 300 MB JET. NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES SUGGEST THAT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION COULD
BECOME ELEVATED AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (WHERE
MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION)...HOWEVER NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT PRESSES EAST DUE TO STRENGTH
OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ZONES WHERE IMPACT OF STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
SE FLOW IS THE LEAST. AS A RESULT HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED MINS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH THE LARGEST CHANCE OVER LONG
ISLAND/COASTAL SE CT...WHERE CURRENT TEMPS CURRENTLY UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NY STATE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREFORE...WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY MORNING. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE REGION.
LOOKING AT 18Z AND EARLY OUT PUT FORM 00Z RUNS...APPEARS WILL HAVE
THETA-E RIDGE BUILD INTO NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH THAT
REGION ALSO IN FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF APPROACHING 110 KT
300 MB JET. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST 200-500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THAT AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASED POPS OVER AREAS MAINLY FROM NYC
METRO ON N AND W TO LIKELY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST SHOULD
GUARANTEE AT LEAST CHANCE POP SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER FROPA AND GOOD MIXING UP TO H8 WITH
30-KT MAX BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WILL NEED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP AGAIN FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. SCENARIO COULD REPEAT
ITSELF ON TUE...BUT WITH WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT PER 12Z GFS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...SO WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS NEARING +4C...TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...THEN GO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED WITH ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS (EXCEPT IFR FOG AT KGON)...WILL BECOME
MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT AREA OF RAIN...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVES IN...THEN BECOMES IFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AS SE
FLOW INCREASES INFLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. BEST TIMING FOR ANY
THUNDERSHOWERS OVERNIGHT REFLECTED BY CB IN TEMPO GROUP. SHOULD
HAVE SOME LIGHTENING UP OF RAIN LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT...THEN NEXT
BATCH OF STEADY RAIN WITH POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN
DURING THE MORNING PUSH (THUNDER MORE LIKELY SO CB IN PREVAILING
VICE TEMPO GROUP)...IFR WITH LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. THIS BATCH
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY MID MORNING..ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN TO LOW END VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON (THOUGH
EASTERN TERMINALS STILL COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING MVFR VIS INTO
MID AFTERNOON). THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM NYC METRO ON N AND W THAT IT WARRANTS A
TEMPO CB GROUP FOR CHANCE OF THUNDER (SHOULD SEE CEILINGS LIFT TO
MID DECK IF NOT SOME BREAKS OF SUN THERE)...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN TERMINALS (MARINE INFLUENCE). THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT
KGON WHERE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
WINDS BECOME SE AT AROUND 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO 10
KT OVERNIGHT...WITH TERMINALS N OF LONG ISLAND SOUND BACKING TO
ESE. BY THE MORNING PUSH WINDS BECOMES 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH...THEN VEERS TO THE SSW BY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR OVER EASTERN
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR GUIDANCE AS IT COMES IN...AND LIKELY WILL AMEND TO INCLUDE
AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU NIGHT: VFR.
FRI AND SAT: MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SUN: VFR.
MON: POSSIBLE SUB VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO REFLECT CHANGES IN WEATHER
GRIDS NOTED ABOVE.
SEAS SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS AHEAD
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WAVE WATCH III HAS INITIALIZED WELL
AFTER RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH PAST FEW RUNS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE...SO WILL EXTEND SCA THROUGH THU
NIGHT FOR NOW.
A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL
OTHER WATERS (LI SOUND/BAYS/HARBOR) WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL ON THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS KICKING UP
DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD STILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS...MAINLY ON
THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET AND ALSO ALONG/CLOSE TO SOUTH FACING
SHORES DURING THE DAY VIA WIND GUSTS OVER NEARBY LAND AREAS.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OVERNIGHT. HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...BC/MALOIT
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/PW/BG
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT
000
FXUS61 KOKX 070014
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
814 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
LASTING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST...PASSING WEST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW PASSES BY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. WILL GO AHEAD AND
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A GENERAL
RISK FOR STORMS AND PWATS ARE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...THEREFORE
WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NY STATE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREFORE...WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY MORNING. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE REGION.
THIS NEXT WAVE WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST SHOULD
GUARANTEE AT LEAST CHANCE POP SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER FROPA AND GOOD MIXING UP TO H8 WITH
30-KT MAX BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WILL NEED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP AGAIN FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. SCENARIO COULD REPEAT
ITSELF ON TUE...BUT WITH WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT PER 12Z GFS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...SO WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS NEARING +4C...TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...THEN GO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED WITH ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS (EXCEPT IFR FOG AT KGON)...WILL BECOME
MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT AREA OF RAIN...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVES IN...THEN BECOMES IFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AS SE
FLOW INCREASES INFLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. BEST TIMING FOR ANY
THUNDERSHOWERS OVERNIGHT REFLECTED BY CB IN TEMPO GROUP. SHOULD
HAVE SOME LIGHTENING UP OF RAIN LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT...THEN NEXT
BATCH OF STEADY RAIN WITH POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN
DURING THE MORNING PUSH (THUNDER MORE LIKELY SO CB IN PREVAILING
VICE TEMPO GROUP)...IFR WITH LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. THIS BATCH
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY MID MORNING..ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN TO LOW END VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON (THOUGH
EASTERN TERMINALS STILL COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING MVFR VIS INTO
MID AFTERNOON). THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM NYC METRO ON N AND W THAT IT WARRANTS A
TEMPO CB GROUP FOR CHANCE OF THUNDER (SHOULD SEE CEILINGS LIFT TO
MID DECK IF NOT SOME BREAKS OF SUN THERE)...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN TERMINALS (MARINE INFLUENCE). THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT
KGON WHERE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
WINDS BECOME SE AT AROUND 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO 10
KT OVERNIGHT...WITH TERMINALS N OF LONG ISLAND SOUND BACKING TO
ESE. BY THE MORNING PUSH WINDS BECOMES 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH...THEN VEERS TO THE SSW BY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR OVER EASTERN
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR GUIDANCE AS IT COMES IN...AND LIKELY WILL AMEND TO INCLUDE
AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU NIGHT: VFR.
FRI AND SAT: MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SUN: VFR.
MON: POSSIBLE SUB VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED...BUT WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN AS WINDS PICK UP
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WAVE WATCH III HAS
INITIALIZED WELL AFTER RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH PAST FEW RUNS.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND INCREASE CLOSE TO 25 KTS
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE...SO WILL EXTEND SCA THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR NOW.
A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL
OTHER WATERS (LI SOUND/BAYS/HARBOR) WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL ON THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS KICKING UP
DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD STILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS...MAINLY ON
THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET AND ALSO ALONG/CLOSE TO SOUTH FACING
SHORES DURING THE DAY VIA WIND GUSTS OVER NEARBY LAND AREAS.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND 1/2 TO 1 INCH
QPF POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS AND NEAR/SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...PW/BG
HYDROLOGY...BC
000
FXUS61 KOKX 061920
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
320 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
LASTING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST...PASSING WEST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW PASSES BY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. WILL GO AHEAD AND
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A GENERAL
RISK FOR STORMS AND PWATS ARE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...THEREFORE
WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NY STATE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREFORE...WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY MORNING. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE REGION.
THIS NEXT WAVE WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST SHOULD
GUARANTEE AT LEAST CHANCE POP SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGGING BEHIND.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER FROPA AND GOOD MIXING UP TO H8 WITH
30-KT MAX BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY
AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WILL NEED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP AGAIN FOR MON INTO MON EVENING. SCENARIO COULD REPEAT
ITSELF ON TUE...BUT WITH WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT PER 12Z GFS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...SO WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE AND H8 TEMPS NEARING +4C...TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY MODERATE TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE...THEN GO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED WITH ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT. STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS NEW
JERSEY...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF MVFR CEILINGS...THEN CLOUDS
SCATTER TEMPORARILY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT WHERE APPROPRIATE.
BY EVENING...WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT..AND
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN. LOW CLOUDS MOVE RIGHT BACK
IN...AND SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...MAINLY AFTER 03-04Z NYC
METRO...04-06Z TO THE EAST. IFR TO LIFT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH ANY TSTM ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT NEAR.
SUB VFR CONTINUES AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU: MVFR IMPROVES LATE IN THE DAY.
FRI AND SAT: MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SUN: VFR.
MON: POSSIBLE SUB VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED...BUT WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN AS WINDS PICK UP
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WAVE WATCH III HAS
INITIALIZED WELL AFTER RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH PAST FEW RUNS.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND INCREASE CLOSE TO 25 KTS
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTN. SEAS WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE...SO WILL EXTEND SCA THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR NOW.
A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL
OTHER WATERS (LI SOUND/BAYS/HARBOR) WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL ON THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS KICKING UP
DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD STILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS...MAINLY ON
THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET AND ALSO ALONG/CLOSE TO SOUTH FACING
SHORES DURING THE DAY VIA WIND GUSTS OVER NEARBY LAND AREAS.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND 1/2 TO 1 INCH
QPF POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 061732
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
132 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH BRIEF BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA STARTING ON SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA...SO WE ARE LOOKING AT A DRY DAY. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY
CLEAR OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT WOULD ALLOW THE SUN TO
BREAK THROUGH. HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS...THEN INTO NORTHERN NY. POPS
INCREASE BACK UP TO CAT BY MIDNIGHT. BASED ON GFS FCST
SOUNDING...THE SWEAT INDEX IS JUST OVER 300 AND THE TOTAL TOTALS
INDEX IS BETWEEN 45-50. ALSO LOOKING AT A PRETTY STRONG LLJ...SO
WILL MENTION SCT THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A GENERAL RISK
FOR STORMS. PWATS ARE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY THU MORNING...THEN WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
FOR THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...WHICH WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A ZONAL UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF
PAC SYSTEMS TRACKING IN THE FLOW. THIS FAST FLOW LEADS TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT FORECAST DUE TO THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
THE INCOMING PAC SYSTEMS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WITH A COUPLE OF WAVES
OF LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG IT.
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NE AND COLD
FRONT PRESSING ON THE REGION. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY FRI AFTERNOON
WITH REGION WARM SECTORED AHEAD OF IT.
MODELS POINTING TOWARDS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD BE
A RESULT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRI AND SAT...BUT THEN A
RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT SUN THROUGH
TUES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT. STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS NEW
JERSEY...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF MVFR CEILINGS...THEN CLOUDS
SCATTER TEMPORARILY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT WHERE APPROPRIATE.
BY EVENING...WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT..AND
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN. LOW CLOUDS MOVE RIGHT BACK
IN...AND SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...MAINLY AFTER 03-04Z NYC
METRO...04-06Z TO THE EAST. IFR TO LIFT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH ANY TSTM ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT NEAR.
SUB VFR CONTINUES AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU: MVFR IMPROVES LATE IN THE DAY.
FRI AND SAT: MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SUN: VFR.
MON: POSSIBLE SUB VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP TO MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS IN A CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AS
WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. MOST OF THE SEA HEIGHT IS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY SWELLS. GUIDANCE CLOSE IN THE NEAR TERM AND KEEP SEAS AT
SMALL CRAFT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY.
WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN COULD
REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WITH THE HAZARD UP FOR SEAS AT
THIS TIME...AND WIND GUSTS MARGINAL THURSDAY...WILL NOT EXTEND THE
HAZARD.
MARGINAL SCA OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLE INTO SAT IN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FETCH AND SWELLS. WINDS GUSTS TOUGHER TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT STRENGTH/TRACK OF WAVES AFFECTING THE
REGION FRI AND SAT.
SEAS SHOULD IMPROVE SUN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE WINDS IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS
THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINIMAL ADDITIONAL QPF EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
WITH NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT...1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND 1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 061346
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
946 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH BRIEF BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA STARTING ON SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE DATABASE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
THE LATEST CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...SO WE ARE LOOKING AT A DRY DAY. SKIES
MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT
WOULD ALLOW THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH. HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS...THEN INTO NORTHERN NY. POPS
INCREASE BACK UP TO CAT BY MIDNIGHT. BASED ON GFS FCST
SOUNDING...THE SWEAT INDEX IS JUST OVER 300 AND THE TOTAL TOTALS
INDEX IS BETWEEN 45-50. ALSO LOOKING AT A PRETTY STRONG LLJ...SO
WILL MENTION SCT THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A GENERAL RISK
FOR STORMS. PWATS ARE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY THU MORNING...THEN WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
FOR THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...WHICH WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A ZONAL UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF
PAC SYSTEMS TRACKING IN THE FLOW. THIS FAST FLOW LEADS TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT FORECAST DUE TO THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
THE INCOMING PAC SYSTEMS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WITH A COUPLE OF WAVES
OF LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG IT.
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NE AND COLD
FRONT PRESSING ON THE REGION. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY FRI AFTERNOON
WITH REGION WARM SECTORED AHEAD OF IT.
MODELS POINTING TOWARDS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD BE
A RESULT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRI AND SAT...BUT THEN A
RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT SUN THROUGH
TUES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE IMPROVING TO VFR 16Z TO
19Z AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AND BE INFLUENCED BY SEA
BREEZES. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY LOW TO MVFR TO IFR
AFTER 23Z AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND FOG WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING. BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 07Z AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND
INDICATED WITH CB IN CLOUD GROUP AT 09Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU: MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND
FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY.
FRI AND SAT: MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SUN: VFR
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP TO MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS IN A CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AS
WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. MOST OF THE SEA HEIGHT IS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY SWELLS. GUIDANCE CLOSE IN THE NEAR TERM AND KEEP SEAS AT
SMALL CRAFT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY.
WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN COULD
REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WITH THE HAZARD UP FOR SEAS AT
THIS TIME...AND WIND GUSTS MARGINAL THURSDAY...WILL NOT EXTEND THE
HAZARD.
MARGINAL SCA OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLE INTO SAT IN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FETCH AND SWELLS. WINDS GUSTS TOUGHER TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT STRENGTH/TRACK OF WAVES AFFECTING THE
REGION FRI AND SAT.
SEAS SHOULD IMPROVE SUN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE WINDS IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS
THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINIMAL ADDITIONAL QPF EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
WITH NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT...1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND 1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
| 
