Project Work Plan

Overview & Objectives:
This investigation makes use of the SWIFT2D two-dimensional surface-water model and the SEAWAT three-dimensional ground-water model to represent flow and transport in the southern Everglades. This successful production of an operation model can be primarily attributed to this projects allocation of the necessary resources and time. Similar efforts outside the USGS have typically been terminated before successful completion. The SICS model, constructed first, represents the southeast coastal region interface with Florida Bay. SWIFT2D and SEAWAT are coupled, allowing leakage to be represented along with salinity transfer. In order to represent regional restoration scenarios, the SICS model has been linked via boundary water levels to the regional South Florida Water Management Model. This linkage allows the simulation of restoration scenarios, defined by the SFWMM, in the SICS area. The same modeling system is expanded to the west and north to include the TIME domain. This encompasses more of the structural controls in the area and allows for the representation of Shark Slough flows.

The objective of determining water-delivery restoration scenarios is supported by the performance-measure optimization-modeling. This technique utilizes the optimization code UCODE to analyze model output and develop model input for the SICS application to produce an optimal water-delivery scheme to satisfy ecologic objectives. The FBFKFS developed performance-measures specify ideal ranges and fluctuations in relevant parameters, such as salinity. These are used as guiding parameters for the UCODE optimization. This same technique can be applied to the TIME application and other hydrologic models used in the region.

The SICS model output has been coupled to components of the ATLSS ecologic modeling suite, in order to supply the necessary hydrologic information for determination of fish population dynamics.

Specific Relevance to Major Unanswered Questions and Information Needs Identified:
This coupled numerical model and the optimization technique will continue to be a crucial decision support tools. The quantity, timing, and distribution of clean fresh water needed to restore the South Florida ecosystem is a primary concern, and can only be addressed by numerical models which represent the controlling factors, can represent proposed CERP restoration scenarios, and the performance-measure optimization which can create restoration alternatives. These scenarios will assist in planning actions to restore, protect, and maintain natural resources on DOI lands in South Florida, allowing a prediction of the results of the planned actions. The coupling of the SICS output to the ATLSS ecologic models allows the testing of the action scenarios on the recovery of South Florida's threatened and endangered species. All these capabilities makes the SICS/TIME and optimization efforts essential to Ecosystem Restoration.

Status:
The SICS model has been documented in several publications which describe the surface-water representation, a user's manual for the surface-water model, the coupling to the ground water, and the linkage to the SFWMM. The coupled SICS model has a seven-year simulation period producing good representations of field data. Several base scenarios created by the SFWMM have been implemented in the SICS model, as well as a simulation of sea-level rise, demonstrating the utility of the linkage. The UCODES optimization application to the SICS model has demonstrated the ability to modify inputs to the Everglades for the purpose of maintaining desired ranges and fluctuations in offshore salinities. A conference paper describes the development of the optimization scheme. The SICS scenarios including the simulation of sea-level rise are used in ATLSS simulations, which are described in a conference paper. The TIME model is coupled and calibrated to available field data. The development is documented in a USGS report currently under review.

Recent Products:
The documentation of the SICS surface-water model has been published as WRIR 03-4287 “Two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation of surface-water flow and transport to Florida Bay through the Southern Inland and Coastal Systems (SICS)” and the coupling to the ground-water model as OFR 04-1097 “Simulation of integrated surface-water/ground-water flow and solute transport for a coastal wetland and adjacent marine estuary”, which has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Hydrology.

TWRI Book 6, Chapter 1, Section B “A model for simulation of surface-water integrated flow and transport in two dimensions: SWIFT2D user's manual” is the user's manual for the SWIFT2D code and OFR 2004-1195 “Assigning boundary conditions to the Southern Inland and Coastal Systems (SICS) model using results from the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM)” describes the linkage of SICS to the SFWMM.

The SICS/ATLSS coupling has been described in a conference paper at the International Environmental Modeling and Software Society (IEMSS) 2004 conference.

A presentation and abstract on the SFWMM linkage was given at the November 2004 GSA conference.

The NCER conference in December 2004 featured several extended abstracts and a fact sheet about SICS, TIME and ATLSS.

The modifications to SWIFT2D for wetland application are described in “SWIFT2D user's guide for application to coastal wetlands in connection with underlying ground water” OFR 2005-1033.

The SICS/ATLSS coupling utilizing scenarios based on performance-measure optimization is presented in a paper for the First All-USGS Modeling Conference, November 2005.

Planned Products:
A web-based report on both SICS and TIME model development titled “Applications of Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density Dependent System (FTLOADDS) to Simulate Flow, Salinity, and Surface-Water Stage in the Southern Everglades, Florida”.

The results of the performance-measure optimization modeling are described in an abstract for the 2005 Florida Bay Science Conference as well as an abstract on the TIME model development at the same conference.

WORK PLAN

Title of Task 1: Use of optimization-modeling techniques in SICS for scenario optimization
Task Funding: USGS Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science (GE PES)
Task Leaders: Eric Swain, Christian Langevin
Phone: (305)717-5825
FAX: (305)717-5801
Task Status: proposed
Task priority: high
Time Frame for Task 1: FY06
Task Personnel: Melinda Wolfert

Task Summary and Objectives: The primary motivation in the SICS/TIME modeling effort is to lend insight into Restoration efforts. By utilizing optimization modeling techniques, the Restoration performance measures, which define target salinities and water-levels for ecologic purposes, can be used as objective functions and the boundary conditions of the model are optimized to satisfy the performance measures. These desired boundary conditions then can be related to the regional water-delivery scheme. This technique requires multiple model executions to develop stochastic representations of the effects of boundary variations. The optimization model is constructed to act as a control shell for the SICS model, with the hydrologic output from the SICS model used by the inverse model shell for the optimization procedure.

The task for FY 2006 is to continue the development which has produced a performance-measure optimization of inflows to Everglades National Park based on criteria for salinity in zones 1 and 2 of the FBFKFS performance-measure criteria. This continued development involves extending the simulation period, including more performance-measure zones and modifying the representation of the salinity criteria in the optimization. A USGS SIR report will be developed in FY2006 describing the development and results.

Work to be undertaken during the proposal year and a description of the methods and procedures: The current optimization for two performance-measure zones, Joe Bay and offshore Joe Bay, will be expanded to include zones such as the West Lake area and Little Madeira Bay. The optimization period will be expanded to the full 7 years. Variations in specifying the target criteria will be tried. The optimized water-delivery schemes will be provided to the ecological modeling to determine the effects of the proposed changes. The report will include a background of the SICS model used, the UCODE optimization technique, the incorporation of SICS into UCODE, the method of incorporating performance measures, the criteria used to modify water deliveries, and the results of the study.

Specific Task Products:

1. Abstract for the 2005 Florida Bay Science Conference describing initial results of the performance-measure optimization modeling, 12/11/05
2. Consolidation of technique and criteria for performance-measure optimization modeling, 1/1/06
3. Finalize optimization simulations and results, 2/15/06
4. First draft of report 3/1/06

Title of Task 2: SICS/TIME Scenario Documentation
Task Funding: USGS Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science (GE PES)
Task Leaders: Eric Swain
Phone: (305)717-5825
FAX: (305)717-5801
Task Status: ongoing
Task priority: high
Time Frame for Task 2: FY06
Task Personnel: Melinda Wolfert

Task Summary and Objectives:

Work to be undertaken during the proposal year and a description of the methods and procedures:
The first draft of the report will be prepared and submitted into the USGS review process. As the review is ongoing, further restoration scenarios will be under development. Report approval will be obtained and the web format developed for dissemination.

Specific Task Products:

1. First draft submitted, 10/21/05
2. Report approval, 6/1/06
3. Web-based distribution finalized 9/1/06