[top]
000
FXUS64 KJAN 081029 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
529 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...THOUGHTS OF A CALMER WEATHER PERIOD HAVE FADED AS MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER SEEMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BEGINNING MUCH
LATER TONIGHT...SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. WE WILL SEE A QUIET PERIOD
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT AS CONVECTION AND LARGE STORM COMPLEXES
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE WHAT COMES OUT
OF THOSE NORTHERN COMPLEXES THAT INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE N PORTION OF THE AREA A BIT LATER IN THE SHORT TERM.
CURRENTLY...NICE STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA AND THAT
WILL LEAD TO A WINDOW OF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
8-10 AM. THE AIR JUST ABOVE THE STRATUS WILL BE MUCH DRIER THAN
YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL SUPPORT A QUICK BURN OFF OF THE LOW CLOUDS
AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO BEING DRIER IN THE
LOW LEVELS...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER. THAT WILL MAKE IT A BIT
TOUGH FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AS WE WARM...BUT SOME WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AND RANGE AROUND FEW-SCT. LOOK FOR A CAPPING INVERSION
TODAY NO PRECIP CHANCES. WE WILL WARM NICELY WITH 88-90 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS. GUID WAS A TAD WARM AND I LOWERED A SITE OR TWO DOWN A TAD AS
I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS. SFC WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE WITH SOME 20-30 MPH GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NW DELTA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE WIND ADV.
MOST OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WILL BE CLEAR AND QUIET. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT WILL DIVE OUT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO OUR N AND THAT WILL START THE MORE COMPLEX
PART OF THE FORECAST. OF LATE...FORECAST MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
MIGHTILY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS AND HAVE OFTEN BEEN TOO
SLOW AND TOO FAR NORTH. THAT MAY AGAIN BE THE CASE...BUT ONE THING
THAT THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON IS A STRONG CAP AND SOME WHAT DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR LEADING INTO ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT PUSHES SOUTH.
THE OPS NAM/GFS ALONG WITH THE HI RES WRF RUNS INDICATE A BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE NW CWA TOWARD THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD AND
LINGERING ON SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THEY SHOW CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
HEADING IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION...BUT THEY DIE OUT QUICKLY AS THEY
RUN INTO THE STRONGLY CAPPED AND DRIER AIRMASS. THAT MAKES SENSE AS
THE MAIN S/W DRIVING THESE SYSTEMS IS FURTHER N THAN THE PREV FEW.
WITH ALL THAT...THERE DOES EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO DEVELOP JUST ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF ANY SFC BOUNDARY.
THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ASSISTANCE TO ERODE ANY
LOW LEVEL CAP. THE NAM DOES INDICATE A BETTER MID LEVEL S/W MOVING
ACROSS THE N SAT INTO SAT EVENING AND THAT MAY HELP THINGS GET
ORGANIZED A BIT MORE. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE SOLID LAPSE RATES
ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY AS NEARLY ALL GUID IS SHOWING 27-30C VT...SO
THERE IS POTENTIAL. I DON`T REALLY HAVE A GOOD FEELING ON HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE OR HOW MUCH SVR WX THERE WILL BE...BUT I CAN SEE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOMETHING. AS A RESULT...I WILL WORD ISOLATED
STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N 1/3RD STARTING AFTER 4 AM
SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING.
AS FOR THE FORECAST ELEMENTS...I DID INCREASE POPS SOME FOR THE NW/N
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FURTHER S PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
SAT/SAT NIGHT. I ALSO LOWER LOWS TONIGHT IN THE DELTA TO MATCH WHAT
USUALLY OCCURS WITH COOLER OUTFLOW AIR. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE TOUGH
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY IN THE NW/N. GFS GUID SEEMS
TO CATCH THAT AND I HAVE FOLLOWED. FOR SAT NIGHT...THE GFS APPEARS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR AND I HAVE TRENDED WARMER...MORE
IN LINE WITH PREV FORECASTS AND THE NAM SOLUTION. /CME/
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WERE NO HUGE CHANGES IN THE
MODELS THIS PACKAGE. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON POPS AND
TEMPS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE COOLER THIS RUN.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE VERY WARM AND MOIST. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SEEMS TO MAKE IT TO INTERSTATE 20 BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH.
THE BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR FOR THE LAST DAY OR TWO WILL MAKE THE AREA PRIME FOR FLASH
FLOODING IF ANY HEAVY DEVELOPS. ALSO WATCHING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY
INCREASING AND THE CAP BREAKING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE NOT
GREAT...SO THERE WAS VERY LITTLE SHEAR AVAILABLE. WOULD MAINLY BE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND RISKS FOR NOW WITH DOWNBURSTS OR ANY PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. WILL ADD ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WORDING TO THE
HWO FOR THE SOUTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TO THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY. PATTERN SEEMS MORE LIKE SUMMER THAN SPRING RIGHT NOW. THE
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ARKLAMS INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTER OF THE US WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH BRINGS SOME COOL AND
DRY AIR INTO THE EASTERN ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME THE
BOUNDARY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA AND STALLED ALONG THE COAST. BUT
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT KEEPS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
MOVE OUT TO SEA. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY
THURSDAY AND KEEPS THE RAIN AT BAY BRIEFLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS
NORTH THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SET-
UP. THE FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THE STRATUS DECK IS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED WITH A MIX OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD FALL TO 3-5SM WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING MEI WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY 1/4SM. I`M NOT SURE
THAT WILL HOLD AS THE STRATUS DECK IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE IN AND SFC
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TO MIX THINGS UP. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
THEM TO BE ONE OF THE LOWER SITES FOR VISIBILITY WITH 1-3SM
EXPECTED. THESE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BETWEEN 13-15Z
AS DRIER AIR EXISTS JUST ABOVE THE CLOUD DECK. THAT WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOOK
FOR MORE STRATUS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 07-10Z TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. /CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 89 69 85 67 / 0 0 17 21
MERIDIAN 90 68 87 66 / 0 0 19 17
VICKSBURG 90 69 84 66 / 0 7 19 24
HATTIESBURG 91 69 90 68 / 0 0 5 4
NATCHEZ 88 69 86 68 / 0 0 6 5
GREENVILLE 88 66 75 63 / 5 35 46 48
GREENWOOD 90 67 79 63 / 5 28 46 45
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016.
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
CME/7
000
FXUS64 KJAN 080954
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
454 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...THOUGHTS OF A CALMER WEATHER PERIOD HAVE FADED AS MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER SEEMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BEGINNING MUCH
LATER TONIGHT...SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. WE WILL SEE A QUIET PERIOD
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT AS CONVECTION AND LARGE STORM COMPLEXES
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE WHAT COMES OUT
OF THOSE NORTHERN COMPLEXES THAT INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE N PORTION OF THE AREA A BIT LATER IN THE SHORT TERM.
CURRENTLY...NICE STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA AND THAT
WILL LEAD TO A WINDOW OF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
8-10 AM. THE AIR JUST ABOVE THE STRATUS WILL BE MUCH DRIER THAN
YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL SUPPORT A QUICK BURN OFF OF THE LOW CLOUDS
AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO BEING DRIER IN THE
LOW LEVELS...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER. THAT WILL MAKE IT A BIT
TOUGH FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AS WE WARM...BUT SOME WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AND RANGE AROUND FEW-SCT. LOOK FOR A CAPPING INVERSION
TODAY NO PRECIP CHANCES. WE WILL WARM NICELY WITH 88-90 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS. GUID WAS A TAD WARM AND I LOWERED A SITE OR TWO DOWN A TAD AS
I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS. SFC WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE WITH SOME 20-30 MPH GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NW DELTA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE WIND ADV.
MOST OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WILL BE CLEAR AND QUIET. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT WILL DIVE OUT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO OUR N AND THAT WILL START THE MORE COMPLEX
PART OF THE FORECAST. OF LATE...FORECAST MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
MIGHTILY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS AND HAVE OFTEN BEEN TOO
SLOW AND TOO FAR NORTH. THAT MAY AGAIN BE THE CASE...BUT ONE THING
THAT THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON IS A STRONG CAP AND SOME WHAT DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR LEADING INTO ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT PUSHES SOUTH.
THE OPS NAM/GFS ALONG WITH THE HI RES WRF RUNS INDICATE A BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE NW CWA TOWARD THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD AND
LINGERING ON SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THEY SHOW CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
HEADING IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION...BUT THEY DIE OUT QUICKLY AS THEY
RUN INTO THE STRONGLY CAPPED AND DRIER AIRMASS. THAT MAKES SENSE AS
THE MAIN S/W DRIVING THESE SYSTEMS IS FURTHER N THAN THE PREV FEW.
WITH ALL THAT...THERE DOES EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO DEVELOP JUST ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF ANY SFC BOUNDARY.
THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ASSISTANCE TO ERODE ANY
LOW LEVEL CAP. THE NAM DOES INDICATE A BETTER MID LEVEL S/W MOVING
ACROSS THE N SAT INTO SAT EVENING AND THAT MAY HELP THINGS GET
ORGANIZED A BIT MORE. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE SOLID LAPSE RATES
ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY AS NEARLY ALL GUID IS SHOWING 27-30C VT...SO
THERE IS POTENTIAL. I DON`T REALLY HAVE A GOOD FEELING ON HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE OR HOW MUCH SVR WX THERE WILL BE...BUT I CAN SEE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOMETHING. AS A RESULT...I WILL WORD ISOLATED
STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N 1/3RD STARTING AFTER 4 AM
SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING.
AS FOR THE FORECAST ELEMENTS...I DID INCREASE POPS SOME FOR THE NW/N
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FURTHER S PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
SAT/SAT NIGHT. I ALSO LOWER LOWS TONIGHT IN THE DELTA TO MATCH WHAT
USUALLY OCCURS WITH COOLER OUTFLOW AIR. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE TOUGH
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY IN THE NW/N. GFS GUID SEEMS
TO CATCH THAT AND I HAVE FOLLOWED. FOR SAT NIGHT...THE GFS APPEARS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR AND I HAVE TRENDED WARMER...MORE
IN LINE WITH PREV FORECASTS AND THE NAM SOLUTION. /CME/
.LONG TERM...WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...THE STRATUS DECK IS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED WITH A MIX OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD FALL TO 3-5SM WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING MEI WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY 1/4SM. I`M NOT SURE
THAT WILL HOLD AS THE STRATUS DECK IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE IN AND SFC
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TO MIX THINGS UP. HOWEVER...I EXPECT
THEM TO BE ONE OF THE LOWER SITES FOR VISIBILITY WITH 1-3SM
EXPECTED. THESE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BETWEEN 13-15Z
AS DRIER AIR EXISTS JUST ABOVE THE CLOUD DECK. THAT WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOOK
FOR MORE STRATUS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 07-10Z TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. /CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 89 69 85 67 / 0 0 17 21
MERIDIAN 90 68 87 66 / 0 0 19 17
VICKSBURG 90 69 84 66 / 0 7 19 24
HATTIESBURG 91 69 90 68 / 0 0 5 4
NATCHEZ 88 69 86 68 / 0 0 6 5
GREENVILLE 88 66 75 63 / 5 35 46 48
GREENWOOD 90 67 79 63 / 5 28 46 45
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016.
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
CME
000
FXUS64 KJAN 080148 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
845 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR OUR AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWS THAT LAST
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING INTO ALABAMA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. CURRENT OVERNIGHT TEMPS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. EXPECT THE PATCHY
FOG TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON
FRIDAY. WILL KEEP LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST DELTA ON
FRIDAY./17/
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
GENERALLY OVC CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AND AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG FROM
2-4MILES. VSBYS WILL CLEAR AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH
SCT...LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS...ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST
OVER THE MS DELTA REGION WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH.
&&
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...255 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DAY OF STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE EXISTS OVER THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN WARMING WITH HIGHS TODAY GETTING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE CWFA. THESE FEATURES WILL
COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS
THE CWFA. THESE SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO GIVE A QUIET NIGHT OVER THE ARKLAMISS
REGION AS WE LOSE HEATING.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE QUIET WITH SKIES THAT WILL BE TRYING
TO CLEAR. STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT WARM
WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED. HAVE REMAINED PRETTY MUCH
WITH GUI FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH QUIETER TO GIVE THE ARKLAMISS REGION A NICE
BREAK FROM ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BETTER
CAP OVER THE REGION WITH WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY DURING THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO NOTE FOR FRIDAY IS THAT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO GIVE GUSTY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THE
DELTA REGION AT LEAST SHOULD SEE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE DELTA REGION FROM AROUND 10 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
A DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING
CONVECTION BACK TO THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE
CWFA. BY SATURDAY THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
ARKLAMISS REGION TO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. APPLICABLE
PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /14/
.LONG TERM...NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE POPS
AND TEMPS WERE GOOD FOR THE MOST PART. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS...MAINLY TO LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NOTHING TO REALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE AREA...IT HANGS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MAYBE MIDDAY
MONDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
COOL AND SOUTHERN HALF PRETTY WARM. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 FOR AREAS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND FINALLY PUSHES THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST.
THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY SEEMS TO STALL ALONG THE COAST AND
EXTENDS BACK INTO THE ARKLATEX. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE EAST
AND BRINGS SOME COOLER DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO
AREA BEFORE BEING PULLED OUT OF THE CWA. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES IN
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DOES NOT LOOK MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT EXITS THE AREA...SO KEPT
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND JUST RAIN IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CAME
IN WITH SOME SMALL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OPTED TO LEAVE
THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MAINTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FOR THE RIDGE
TO KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THE MOST PART. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...SO LEFT 10-15 PERCENT POP VALUES IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...SO RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPROACHING FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 69 90 69 88 / 10 4 5 10
MERIDIAN 68 90 65 90 / 10 3 5 8
VICKSBURG 70 91 69 87 / 10 4 6 11
HATTIESBURG 69 91 67 92 / 10 4 4 6
NATCHEZ 70 89 69 88 / 10 5 6 9
GREENVILLE 70 88 69 80 / 10 11 17 25
GREENWOOD 70 90 68 82 / 10 11 15 28
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025-034-035-040-041.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
015-016.
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KJAN 071955
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DAY OF STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE EXISTS OVER THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN WARMING WITH HIGHS TODAY GETTING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE CWFA. THESE FEATURES WILL
COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS
THE CWFA. THESE SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO GIVE A QUIET NIGHT OVER THE ARKLAMISS
REGION AS WE LOSE HEATING.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE QUIET WITH SKIES THAT WILL BE TRYING
TO CLEAR. STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT WARM
WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED. HAVE REMAINED PRETTY MUCH
WITH GUI FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH QUIETER TO GIVE THE ARKLAMISS REGION A NICE
BREAK FROM ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BETTER
CAP OVER THE REGION WITH WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY DURING THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO NOTE FOR FRIDAY IS THAT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO GIVE GUSTY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THE
DELTA REGION AT LEAST SHOULD SEE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE DELTA REGION FROM AROUND 10 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
A DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING
CONVECTION BACK TO THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE
CWFA. BY SATURDAY THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
ARKLAMISS REGION TO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. APPLICABLE
PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /14/
.LONG TERM...NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE POPS
AND TEMPS WERE GOOD FOR THE MOST PART. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS...MAINLY TO LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NOTHING TO REALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE AREA...IT HANGS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MAYBE MIDDAY
MONDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
COOL AND SOUTHERN HALF PRETTY WARM. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 FOR AREAS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND FINALLY PUSHES THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST.
THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY SEEMS TO STALL ALONG THE COAST AND
EXTENDS BACK INTO THE ARKLATEX. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE EAST
AND BRINGS SOME COOLER DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO
AREA BEFORE BEING PULLED OUT OF THE CWA. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES IN
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DOES NOT LOOK MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT EXITS THE AREA...SO KEPT
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND JUST RAIN IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CAME
IN WITH SOME SMALL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OPTED TO LEAVE
THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MAINTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FOR THE RIDGE
TO KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THE MOST PART. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...SO LEFT 10-15 PERCENT POP VALUES IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...SO RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPROACHING FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-BKN BASES FROM 2-4 THOUSAND FEET WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BKN DECKS ABOVE IN DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY 7 PM WITH ACTIVITY ENDING ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND 10 PM. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
GENERALLY OVC CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AND AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG FROM
3-5MILES. VSBYS WILL CLEAR AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH
SCT...LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS...ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST
OVER THE MS DELTA REGION WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 69 90 69 88 / 10 4 5 10
MERIDIAN 68 90 65 90 / 10 3 5 8
VICKSBURG 70 91 69 87 / 10 4 6 11
HATTIESBURG 69 91 67 92 / 10 4 4 6
NATCHEZ 70 89 69 88 / 10 5 6 9
GREENVILLE 70 88 69 80 / 10 11 17 25
GREENWOOD 70 90 68 82 / 10 11 15 28
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025-034-035-040-041.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
015-016.
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
14/07/03
000
FXUS64 KJAN 071554 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1054 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION...GIVING ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING THIS MORNING WITH UPPER 70S TO EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS SEEING THE LOWER 80S THIS HOUR. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
LOWER 70S...GIVING A VERY HUMID AIRMASS. THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. SO AS HEATING
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CONVECTION TO GET GOING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING SLIGHTLY MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.
HOWEVER STILL FEEL LIKE THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWFA IS REASONABLE. SO HAVE JUST ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NOT OTHER ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GOOD NEWS IS WE WON`T HAVE TO DEAL WITH A
COMPLEX OF STORM LIKE IN RECENT DAYS. THE BAD NEWS IS...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. I WON`T
END WITH BAD NEWS HOWEVER...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT
AND STAY AROUND THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
THE ATMS HAS BEEN RECOVERING ALL EVENING FROM YESTERDAYS MCS AND WE
WILL HAVE A SFC BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH THIS MORNING AND PRETTY SOLID
MOISTURE ADV THAT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE CURRENT BOUNDARY POSITION AND
ACROSS E MS. AS OF 08Z...THIS SFC BOUNDARY WAS GENERALLY LOCATED
FROM HBG TO JAN TO MLU. A MARITIME AIRMASS EXISTS TO THE W/SE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS EVEN SOLID MOISTURE MOVING ATOP THIS FEATURE
CURRENTLY WITH NEAR 340K THETA E AXIS INVOF I-20. ALL GUID SHOW THIS
THETA E AXIS REMAINING IN A VERY SIMILAR POSITION WITH 850MB DEW PTS
OF 14-15C HOLDING OR ADVECTING INTO THE CWA. SO WE HAVE 2 SOLID
INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION (SFC BOUNDARY/850MB MOISTURE)...WHAT
ABOUT ALOFT. AS FOR A MID LEVEL S/W...THAT IS A LACKING ELEMENT.
MOST MODEL GUID DO SHOW SOME SMALL WEAK FEATURES AND THAT WILL BE
WHAT WILL HAVE TO GET THINGS GOING. ADDITIONALLY...MID LEVEL HGHTS
WILL RISE 10-20M IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM YESTERDAY.
WE WILL ALSO SEE MID LEVEL TEMPS A BIT WARMER WITH -9 TO -10C AT
500MB. AT JET LEVEL...NOT MUCH ASSISTANCE EITHER. OUR REGION WILL BE
ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A WNW FLOWING UPPER JET AND NOT HAVE ANY
FAVORABLE QUAD TO HELP WITH UPPER DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...THE AREA WE
WILL BE IN IS ON THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 300MB RIDGE AND THE
JET WILL BE A BIT DIFFLUENT AND THAT MAY SUPPORT SOME SPEED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
AS FOR INSTABILITY...THAT WILL BE ON THE MODERATE END WITH MLCAPE
VALUES 2300-2600 J/KG. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 80S AND 69-72
SFC DEWPTS TO HOLD AS THAT MARITIME AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN. LAPSE
RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS IN RECENT DAYS AND GUID IS SHOWING VT
AROUND 25-26C. LIFTED INDICES LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND -7 TO -8 IF
THOSE MID 80S CAN BE REACHED. COMBINING THAT INSTABILITY WITH
20-30KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND AROUND 20KTS OF 850MB
FLOW...ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS SEEM POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
WILL BE DECENT VEERING OF THE FLOW AND THAT WILL SUPPORT WEAKLY
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH WILL IN TURN MAKE THE STORMS STRONGER AND A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED.
SO WITH ALL THAT...THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG AND ISOLATED SVR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON IF THE MENTIONED INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED. ALL
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE A RISK BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF THE CWA THAT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL. I WOULD DEFINE AN AREA OF BEST
RISK WITHIN A ZONE FROM LAUREL TO THE METRO TO JUST N OF MERIDIAN.
THIS AREA LIES WITHIN THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
ADV...INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND FAVORED STORM PROPAGATION AREA. BASED
ON LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE MORE ROBUST STORM PROPAGATION SHOULD BE E OR
ENE. AS FOR WHAT TO EXPECT...HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK.
HAIL FROM PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT I WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW A BIT LARGER IF THOSE UPDRAFTS CAN ROTATE
LIKE I`M THINKING. DMG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THERE SEEMS TO
BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF DCAPE. MAIN TIMING ON ANY STRONG/SVR ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO OCCUR MAINLY BETWEEN 2-7 PM. THE HWO AND GRAPHICAST WILL BE
ADJ TO THIS LATEST THINKING.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ALL GUID SUGGEST THAT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL
BE DONE WITH BY 6-7 PM. AS A RESULT...I HAVE JUST FOLLOWED GUID FOR
THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE FRI. DRIER/WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE IN FRI AND THAT WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY. TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER WITH 87-90 DEGREES EXPECTED. LOOK FOR SOME CU...BUT A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON FRI. SFC WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRI
AND THE NW PORTION WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADV FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS. FRI NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR DURING THE FIRST 2/3 OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE STRATUS MOVES IN AFTER 2-3 AM. NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA
WILL NOT HAVE ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW END
SHOT THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO THE NW/N LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND I HAVE FOLLOWED GUID POPS ACROSS THE FAR N TO COVER THAT.
/CME/
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE POPS AND TEMPS WERE GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...MAINLY TO LOWER VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A STRONG HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. WITH THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...RAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO SINK ACROSS THE AREA. A STALLED
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO MAINTAINED THUNDER WORDING. WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NOTHING TO REALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE
AREA...IT HANGS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MAYBE
MIDDAY MONDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
COOL AND SOUTHERN HALF PRETTY WARM. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 FOR AREAS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND FINALLY PUSHES THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
AND EAST. THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY SEEMS TO STALL ALONG THE COAST
AND EXTENDS BACK INTO THE ARKLATEX. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE EAST
AND BRINGS SOME COOLER DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO
AREA BEFORE BEING PULLED OUT OF THE CWA. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES IN
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DOES NOT LOOK MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT EXITS THE AREA...SO KEPT
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND JUST RAIN IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CAME
IN WITH SOME SMALL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OPTED TO LEAVE
THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MAINTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FOR THE RIDGE
TO KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THE MOST PART. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...SO LEFT 10-15 PERCENT POP VALUES IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...SO RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPROACHING FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS FROM 1-2 THOUSAND FT. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BKN DECKS FROM 2-4 THOUSAND FEET WITH BKN DECKS
ABOVE IN DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
RISK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING WITH ACTIVITY ENDING ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 10 PM. WILL
SEE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIFTING TO MVFR
BY MIDMORNING FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 85 68 88 69 / 37 5 5 3
MERIDIAN 86 68 89 65 / 40 5 3 3
VICKSBURG 86 70 90 68 / 30 5 5 3
HATTIESBURG 87 68 91 68 / 37 9 4 0
NATCHEZ 85 70 88 69 / 34 6 3 0
GREENVILLE 86 70 88 69 / 32 5 13 21
GREENWOOD 87 69 89 69 / 32 6 13 20
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
14/03
000
FXUS64 KJAN 070945 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
445 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...THE GOOD NEWS IS WE WON`T HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COMPLEX
OF STORM LIKE IN RECENT DAYS. THE BAD NEWS IS...A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. I WON`T END WITH BAD
NEWS HOWEVER...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND STAY
AROUND THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
THE ATMS HAS BEEN RECOVERING ALL EVENING FROM YESTERDAYS MCS AND WE
WILL HAVE A SFC BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH THIS MORNING AND PRETTY SOLID
MOISTURE ADV THAT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE CURRENT BOUNDARY POSITION AND
ACROSS E MS. AS OF 08Z...THIS SFC BOUNDARY WAS GENERALLY LOCATED
FROM HBG TO JAN TO MLU. A MARITIME AIRMASS EXISTS TO THE W/SE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS EVEN SOLID MOISTURE MOVING ATOP THIS FEATURE
CURRENTLY WITH NEAR 340K THETA E AXIS INVOF I-20. ALL GUID SHOW THIS
THETA E AXIS REMAINING IN A VERY SIMILAR POSITION WITH 850MB DEW PTS
OF 14-15C HOLDING OR ADVECTING INTO THE CWA. SO WE HAVE 2 SOLID
INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION (SFC BOUNDARY/850MB MOISTURE)...WHAT
ABOUT ALOFT. AS FOR A MID LEVEL S/W...THAT IS A LACKING ELEMENT.
MOST MODEL GUID DO SHOW SOME SMALL WEAK FEATURES AND THAT WILL BE
WHAT WILL HAVE TO GET THINGS GOING. ADDITIONALLY...MID LEVEL HGHTS
WILL RISE 10-20M IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM YESTERDAY.
WE WILL ALSO SEE MID LEVEL TEMPS A BIT WARMER WITH -9 TO -10C AT
500MB. AT JET LEVEL...NOT MUCH ASSISTANCE EITHER. OUR REGION WILL BE
ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A WNW FLOWING UPPER JET AND NOT HAVE ANY
FAVORABLE QUAD TO HELP WITH UPPER DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...THE AREA WE
WILL BE IN IS ON THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 300MB RIDGE AND THE
JET WILL BE A BIT DIFFLUENT AND THAT MAY SUPPORT SOME SPEED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
AS FOR INSTABILITY...THAT WILL BE ON THE MODERATE END WITH MLCAPE
VALUES 2300-2600 J/KG. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 80S AND 69-72
SFC DEWPTS TO HOLD AS THAT MARITIME AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN. LAPSE
RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS IN RECENT DAYS AND GUID IS SHOWING VT
AROUND 25-26C. LIFTED INDICES LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND -7 TO -8 IF
THOSE MID 80S CAN BE REACHED. COMBINING THAT INSTABILITY WITH
20-30KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND AROUND 20KTS OF 850MB
FLOW...ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS SEEM POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
WILL BE DECENT VEERING OF THE FLOW AND THAT WILL SUPPORT WEAKLY
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH WILL IN TURN MAKE THE STORMS STRONGER AND A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED.
SO WITH ALL THAT...THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG AND ISOLATED SVR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON IF THE MENTIONED INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED. ALL
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE A RISK BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF THE CWA THAT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL. I WOULD DEFINE AN AREA OF BEST
RISK WITHIN A ZONE FROM LAUREL TO THE METRO TO JUST N OF MERIDIAN.
THIS AREA LIES WITHIN THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
ADV...INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND FAVORED STORM PROPAGATION AREA. BASED
ON LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE MORE ROBUST STORM PROPAGATION SHOULD BE E OR
ENE. AS FOR WHAT TO EXPECT...HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK.
HAIL FROM PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT I WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW A BIT LARGER IF THOSE UPDRAFTS CAN ROTATE
LIKE I`M THINKING. DMG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THERE SEEMS TO
BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF DCAPE. MAIN TIMING ON ANY STRONG/SVR ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO OCCUR MAINLY BETWEEN 2-7 PM. THE HWO AND GRAPHICAST WILL BE
ADJ TO THIS LATEST THINKING.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ALL GUID SUGGEST THAT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL
BE DONE WITH BY 6-7 PM. AS A RESULT...I HAVE JUST FOLLOWED GUID FOR
THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE FRI. DRIER/WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE IN FRI AND THAT WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY. TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER WITH 87-90 DEGREES EXPECTED. LOOK FOR SOME CU...BUT A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON FRI. SFC WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRI
AND THE NW PORTION WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADV FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS. FRI NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR DURING THE FIRST 2/3 OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE STRATUS MOVES IN AFTER 2-3 AM. NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA
WILL NOT HAVE ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW END
SHOT THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO THE NW/N LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND I HAVE FOLLOWED GUID POPS ACROSS THE FAR N TO COVER THAT.
/CME/
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE POPS AND TEMPS WERE GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...MAINLY TO LOWER VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A STRONG HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. WITH THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...RAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO SINK ACROSS THE AREA. A STALLED
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO MAINTAINED THUNDER WORDING. WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NOTHING TO REALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE
AREA...IT HANGS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MAYBE
MIDDAY MONDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
COOL AND SOUTHERN HALF PRETTY WARM. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 FOR AREAS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND FINALLY PUSHES THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
AND EAST. THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY SEEMS TO STALL ALONG THE COAST
AND EXTENDS BACK INTO THE ARKLATEX. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE EAST
AND BRINGS SOME COOLER DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO
AREA BEFORE BEING PULLED OUT OF THE CWA. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES IN
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DOES NOT LOOK MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT EXITS THE AREA...SO KEPT
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND JUST RAIN IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CAME
IN WITH SOME SMALL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OPTED TO LEAVE
THE AREA DRY. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MAINTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FOR THE RIDGE
TO KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THE MOST PART. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...SO LEFT 10-15 PERCENT POP VALUES IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...SO RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPROACHING FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...LOOK FOR A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS THIS
MORNING WITH CEILING CONDITIONS HOLDING IN MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY
AS HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST. THE AREA WILL SEE ISO TO SCT
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND I WILL COVER THAT FOR ALL SITES. BY
23-01Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME 800-1500 FT CEILINGS
DEVELOPING MUCH LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 09Z
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 87 69 90 67 / 12 8 12 13
MERIDIAN 86 67 90 66 / 14 8 14 13
VICKSBURG 89 70 90 68 / 11 8 13 13
HATTIESBURG 88 70 90 67 / 24 8 5 12
NATCHEZ 87 70 90 68 / 18 8 5 13
GREENVILLE 88 70 89 68 / 11 18 20 20
GREENWOOD 88 69 90 67 / 11 18 19 19
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/7
000
FXUS64 KJAN 070928
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...THE GOOD NEWS IS WE WON`T HAVE TO DEAL WITH A COMPLEX
OF STORM LIKE IN RECENT DAYS. THE BAD NEWS IS...A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. I WON`T END WITH BAD
NEWS HOWEVER...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND STAY
AROUND THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
THE ATMS HAS BEEN RECOVERING ALL EVENING FROM YESTERDAYS MCS AND WE
WILL HAVE A SFC BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH THIS MORNING AND PRETTY SOLID
MOISTURE ADV THAT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE CURRENT BOUNDARY POSITION AND
ACROSS E MS. AS OF 08Z...THIS SFC BOUNDARY WAS GENERALLY LOCATED
FROM HBG TO JAN TO MLU. A MARITIME AIRMASS EXISTS TO THE W/SE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS EVEN SOLID MOISTURE MOVING ATOP THIS FEATURE
CURRENTLY WITH NEAR 340K THETA E AXIS INVOF I-20. ALL GUID SHOW THIS
THETA E AXIS REMAINING IN A VERY SIMILAR POSITION WITH 850MB DEW PTS
OF 14-15C HOLDING OR ADVECTING INTO THE CWA. SO WE HAVE 2 SOLID
INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION (SFC BOUNDARY/850MB MOISTURE)...WHAT
ABOUT ALOFT. AS FOR A MID LEVEL S/W...THAT IS A LACKING ELEMENT.
MOST MODEL GUID DO SHOW SOME SMALL WEAK FEATURES AND THAT WILL BE
WHAT WILL HAVE TO GET THINGS GOING. ADDITIONALLY...MID LEVEL HGHTS
WILL RISE 10-20M IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM YESTERDAY.
WE WILL ALSO SEE MID LEVEL TEMPS A BIT WARMER WITH -9 TO -10C AT
500MB. AT JET LEVEL...NOT MUCH ASSISTANCE EITHER. OUR REGION WILL BE
ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A WNW FLOWING UPPER JET AND NOT HAVE ANY
FAVORABLE QUAD TO HELP WITH UPPER DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...THE AREA WE
WILL BE IN IS ON THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 300MB RIDGE AND THE
JET WILL BE A BIT DIFFLUENT AND THAT MAY SUPPORT SOME SPEED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
AS FOR INSTABILITY...THAT WILL BE ON THE MODERATE END WITH MLCAPE
VALUES 2300-2600 J/KG. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 80S AND 69-72
SFC DEWPTS TO HOLD AS THAT MARITIME AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN. LAPSE
RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS IN RECENT DAYS AND GUID IS SHOWING VT
AROUND 25-26C. LIFTED INDICES LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND -7 TO -8 IF
THOSE MID 80S CAN BE REACHED. COMBINING THAT INSTABILITY WITH
20-30KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND AROUND 20KTS OF 850MB
FLOW...ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS SEEM POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
WILL BE DECENT VEERING OF THE FLOW AND THAT WILL SUPPORT WEAKLY
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH WILL IN TURN MAKE THE STORMS STRONGER AND A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED.
SO WITH ALL THAT...THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG AND ISOLATED SVR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON IF THE MENTIONED INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED. ALL
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE A RISK BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF THE CWA THAT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL. I WOULD DEFINE AN AREA OF BEST
RISK WITHIN A ZONE FROM LAUREL TO THE METRO TO JUST N OF MERIDIAN.
THIS AREA LIES WITHIN THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
ADV...INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND FAVORED STORM PROPAGATION AREA. BASED
ON LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE MORE ROBUST STORM PROPAGATION SHOULD BE E OR
ENE. AS FOR WHAT TO EXPECT...HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK.
HAIL FROM PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT I WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW A BIT LARGER IF THOSE UPDRAFTS CAN ROTATE
LIKE I`M THINKING. DMG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THERE SEEMS TO
BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF DCAPE. MAIN TIMING ON ANY STRONG/SVR ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO OCCUR MAINLY BETWEEN 2-7 PM. THE HWO AND GRAPHICAST WILL BE
ADJ TO THIS LATEST THINKING.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ALL GUID SUGGEST THAT THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL
BE DONE WITH BY 6-7 PM. AS A RESULT...I HAVE JUST FOLLOWED GUID FOR
THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE FRI. DRIER/WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE IN FRI AND THAT WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY. TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER WITH 87-90 DEGREES EXPECTED. LOOK FOR SOME CU...BUT A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON FRI. SFC WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRI
AND THE NW PORTION WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADV FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS. FRI NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR DURING THE FIRST 2/3 OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE STRATUS MOVES IN AFTER 2-3 AM. NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA
WILL NOT HAVE ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW END
SHOT THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO THE NW/N LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND I HAVE FOLLOWED GUID POPS ACROSS THE FAR N TO COVER THAT.
/CME/
.LONG TERM...WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...LOOK FOR A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS THIS
MORNING WITH CEILING CONDITIONS HOLDING IN MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY
AS HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST. THE AREA WILL SEE ISO TO SCT
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND I WILL COVER THAT FOR ALL SITES. BY
23-01Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME 800-1500 FT CEILINGS
DEVELOPING MUCH LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 09Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 85 68 88 69 / 37 5 5 3
MERIDIAN 86 68 89 65 / 40 5 3 3
VICKSBURG 86 70 90 68 / 29 5 5 3
HATTIESBURG 87 68 91 68 / 37 9 4 0
NATCHEZ 85 70 88 69 / 34 6 3 0
GREENVILLE 86 70 88 69 / 21 5 13 21
GREENWOOD 87 69 89 69 / 20 6 13 20
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME
007
000
FXUS64 KJAN 070240 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
935 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2009
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. A DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC
AND LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOWS THE PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SO PUT ISOLATED POPS REGION WIDE.
OTHERWISE WITH WEAK LIGHT SOUTH WINDS..WET GROUND AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 MAY BECOME DENSE.
WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70 SEEM TO BE ON TRACK./17/
&&
.AVIATION...FOG WITH A LITTLE STRATUS (IFR/MVFR) WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH SATURATED GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. SOME OF
THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE. THE PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL NOT AFFECT
TAF SITES. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND ALLOW PREVAILING VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 14-15Z THURSDAY
MORNING. /17/
&&
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...415 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AND HELP MOVE
THE REMNANTS OF TODAY`S MCS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AM NOT EXPECTING
ANOTHER COMPLEX IN OUR AREA TONIGHT BUT AM STILL DEALING WITH
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS WAS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WAS ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE DROPPED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT WL COME
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE PART OF THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
THIS SHOULD HELP THIN OUT THE CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP AS
LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING STOUT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP DECENT
INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY OF TODAY`S MCS AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THURSDAY. WITH MORE INSOLATION EXPECTED THURSDAY...AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AND TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY...OUR
NW MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE ZONAL. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP ANY COMPLEXES THAT DEVELOP OUT WEST TO OUR NORTH. GUIDANCE POPS
ARE LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WL BE AFFECTED
BY ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL...WL KEEP
MENTION OF SOME POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER ZONES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. /22/
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN
AND WHAT THE LATEST FORECAST GUID SUGGESTS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE PREV FEW RUNS. MODELS DON`T REALLY INDICATE MUCH OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND SUPPORT
STORMS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER WAVE FOR SAT AND THAT WOULD
HELP WITH THE STORM CHANCES AND HELP PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO THE CWA.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...TIMING THESE FEATURES REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT
AND MESO-SCALE FEATURES WILL CARRY A LOT OF WEIGHT ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WANTING TO STAY WELL N OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...BUT OBSERVED TRENDS OF LATE HAVE PROVEN THE
MODELS WRONG AND ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.
BY EARLY SUN...MODELS HAVE A SFC COOL FRONT DISSECTING THE CWA AND
THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS INTO MON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG AND
S OF THIS FEATURE AND EVEN AS UPPER RIDING DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BE A
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION UNTIL HEIGHTS GET TOO HIGH AND CAPPING TAKES
OVER. THIS RIDGING LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY TUE INTO WED AND THAT SHOULD
PUT AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES AN ALLOW FOR SOME WARM READINGS IN THE
TEMP DEPARTMENT.
AS FOR THE FORECAST ELEMENTS FRI-MON...GUID TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE
AND HAVE FOLLOWED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRI AS THE LATEST GUID
HAS REALLY WARMED AND I`M NOT READY TO HIT ON THE 90-92 VALUES JUST
YET. I LOWERED NEARLY ALL AREAS AROUND 2 DEGREES. AS FOR POPS...GUID
SEEMED A TAD TOO LOW FRI-FRI NIGHT AND HAVE STAYED WITH OUR PREV
FORECAST. AS FOR SAT-WED...GUID SEEMED TO COVER THINGS WELL WITH THE
SFC FRONT LINGERING...THEN DRY THINGS OUT BY TUE-WED. OVERALL...POPS
WILL RANGE FROM 20-40% WITH THE N HALF HAVING THE MAIN SHOT AT
PRECIP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED. /CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 68 87 69 90 / 18 12 8 12
MERIDIAN 66 86 67 90 / 18 14 8 14
VICKSBURG 68 89 70 90 / 19 11 8 13
HATTIESBURG 70 88 70 90 / 17 24 8 5
NATCHEZ 69 87 70 90 / 18 18 8 5
GREENVILLE 67 88 70 89 / 19 11 18 20
GREENWOOD 67 88 69 90 / 19 11 18 19
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KJAN 070128 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
825 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2009
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. A DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE WITH WEAK LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS..WET GROUND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL BE LOOKING FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 MAY BECOME DENSE. WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SEEM TO BE ON TRACK./17/
&&
.AVIATION...FOG WITH A LITTLE STRATUS (IFR/MVFR) WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH SATURATED GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND
ALLOW PREVAILING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND 14-15Z THURSDAY MORNING. /17/
&&
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...415 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AND HELP MOVE
THE REMNANTS OF TODAY`S MCS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AM NOT EXPECTING
ANOTHER COMPLEX IN OUR AREA TONIGHT BUT AM STILL DEALING WITH
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS WAS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WAS ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE DROPPED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT WL COME
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE PART OF THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
THIS SHOULD HELP THIN OUT THE CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP AS
LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING STOUT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP DECENT
INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY OF TODAY`S MCS AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THURSDAY. WITH MORE INSOLATION EXPECTED THURSDAY...AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AND TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY...OUR
NW MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE ZONAL. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP ANY COMPLEXES THAT DEVELOP OUT WEST TO OUR NORTH. GUIDANCE POPS
ARE LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WL BE AFFECTED
BY ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL...WL KEEP
MENTION OF SOME POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER ZONES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. /22/
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN
AND WHAT THE LATEST FORECAST GUID SUGGESTS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE PREV FEW RUNS. MODELS DON`T REALLY INDICATE MUCH OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND SUPPORT
STORMS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER WAVE FOR SAT AND THAT WOULD
HELP WITH THE STORM CHANCES AND HELP PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO THE CWA.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...TIMING THESE FEATURES REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT
AND MESO-SCALE FEATURES WILL CARRY A LOT OF WEIGHT ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WANTING TO STAY WELL N OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...BUT OBSERVED TRENDS OF LATE HAVE PROVEN THE
MODELS WRONG AND ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.
BY EARLY SUN...MODELS HAVE A SFC COOL FRONT DISSECTING THE CWA AND
THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS INTO MON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG AND
S OF THIS FEATURE AND EVEN AS UPPER RIDING DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BE A
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION UNTIL HEIGHTS GET TOO HIGH AND CAPPING TAKES
OVER. THIS RIDGING LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY TUE INTO WED AND THAT SHOULD
PUT AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES AN ALLOW FOR SOME WARM READINGS IN THE
TEMP DEPARTMENT.
AS FOR THE FORECAST ELEMENTS FRI-MON...GUID TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE
AND HAVE FOLLOWED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRI AS THE LATEST GUID
HAS REALLY WARMED AND I`M NOT READY TO HIT ON THE 90-92 VALUES JUST
YET. I LOWERED NEARLY ALL AREAS AROUND 2 DEGREES. AS FOR POPS...GUID
SEEMED A TAD TOO LOW FRI-FRI NIGHT AND HAVE STAYED WITH OUR PREV
FORECAST. AS FOR SAT-WED...GUID SEEMED TO COVER THINGS WELL WITH THE
SFC FRONT LINGERING...THEN DRY THINGS OUT BY TUE-WED. OVERALL...POPS
WILL RANGE FROM 20-40% WITH THE N HALF HAVING THE MAIN SHOT AT
PRECIP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED. /CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 68 87 69 90 / 6 12 8 12
MERIDIAN 66 86 67 90 / 8 14 8 14
VICKSBURG 68 89 70 90 / 6 11 8 13
HATTIESBURG 70 88 70 90 / 6 24 8 5
NATCHEZ 69 87 70 90 / 6 18 8 5
GREENVILLE 67 88 70 89 / 8 11 18 20
GREENWOOD 67 88 69 90 / 11 11 18 19
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KJAN 062116
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2009
.SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AND HELP MOVE
THE REMNANTS OF TODAY`S MCS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AM NOT EXPECTING
ANOTHER COMPLEX IN OUR AREA TONIGHT BUT AM STILL DEALING WITH
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS WAS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WAS ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE DROPPED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT WL COME
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE PART OF THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
THIS SHOULD HELP THIN OUT THE CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP AS
LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING STOUT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP DECENT
INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY OF TODAY`S MCS AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THURSDAY. WITH MORE INSOLATION EXPECTED THURSDAY...AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AND TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY...OUR
NW MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE ZONAL. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP ANY COMPLEXES THAT DEVELOP OUT WEST TO OUR NORTH. GUIDANCE POPS
ARE LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WL BE AFFECTED
BY ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL...WL KEEP
MENTION OF SOME POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER ZONES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. /22/
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN
AND WHAT THE LATEST FORECAST GUID SUGGESTS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE PREV FEW RUNS. MODELS DON`T REALLY INDICATE MUCH OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND SUPPORT
STORMS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER WAVE FOR SAT AND THAT WOULD
HELP WITH THE STORM CHANCES AND HELP PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO THE CWA.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...TIMING THESE FEATURES REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT
AND MESO-SCALE FEATURES WILL CARRY A LOT OF WEIGHT ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WANTING TO STAY WELL N OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...BUT OBSERVED TRENDS OF LATE HAVE PROVEN THE
MODELS WRONG AND ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.
BY EARLY SUN...MODELS HAVE A SFC COOL FRONT DISSECTING THE CWA AND
THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS INTO MON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG AND
S OF THIS FEATURE AND EVEN AS UPPER RIDING DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BE A
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION UNTIL HEIGHTS GET TOO HIGH AND CAPPING TAKES
OVER. THIS RIDGING LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY TUE INTO WED AND THAT SHOULD
PUT AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES AN ALLOW FOR SOME WARM READINGS IN THE
TEMP DEPARTMENT.
AS FOR THE FORECAST ELEMENTS FRI-MON...GUID TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE
AND HAVE FOLLOWED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRI AS THE LATEST GUID
HAS REALLY WARMED AND I`M NOT READY TO HIT ON THE 90-92 VALUES JUST
YET. I LOWERED NEARLY ALL AREAS AROUND 2 DEGREES. AS FOR POPS...GUID
SEEMED A TAD TOO LOW FRI-FRI NIGHT AND HAVE STAYED WITH OUR PREV
FORECAST. AS FOR SAT-WED...GUID SEEMED TO COVER THINGS WELL WITH THE
SFC FRONT LINGERING...THEN DRY THINGS OUT BY TUE-WED. OVERALL...POPS
WILL RANGE FROM 20-40% WITH THE N HALF HAVING THE MAIN SHOT AT
PRECIP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST ARE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN
HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE STORM COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. IF A THUNDERSTORM PASSES OVER
A SITE...IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING WITH ALL OF THE RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING. FOG WITH A LITTLE STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH
SATURATED GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT AND ALLOW PREVAILING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 14-15Z THURSDAY MORNING. /14/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 68 87 69 90 / 11 12 8 12
MERIDIAN 66 86 67 90 / 12 14 8 14
VICKSBURG 68 89 70 90 / 10 11 8 13
HATTIESBURG 70 88 70 90 / 24 24 8 5
NATCHEZ 69 87 70 90 / 17 18 8 5
GREENVILLE 67 88 70 89 / 7 11 18 20
GREENWOOD 67 88 69 90 / 7 11 18 19
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM:22
LONG TERM: CME
AVIATION: 14
000
FXUS64 KJAN 061638
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...
.UPDATE...FIRST WAVE ACROSS NORTH THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
THE SECOND WAS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA. THE NORTH GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 WILL STILL SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE IMMEDIATE SEVERE
THREAT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT MCS OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SAG EAST SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN A SEVERE STORM THREAT SOUTH TO THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM INDIVIDUAL AND
TRAINING STORMS HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTH TO JUST
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. TEMPERATURES FORECAST TOUGH TODAY. HAVE LOWERED
MAXES IN NORTH AND SOUTH. THE RAIN COOLED NORTH WILL BE HARD TO
RECOVER AND SOUTH WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING FORECAST HIGHS
BEFORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVES IN. MORE UPDATES LIKELY BUT RECENT
CHANGES HAVE BEEN POSTED. /22/
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON TODAY WHERE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ACROSS A GOOD BIT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST ARA THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION AS SITES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE OBSERVING DEW POINTS AROUND
70. MEANWHILE...JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION STRETCHES EAST TO WEST FROM NORTH ALABAMA... THROUGH
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...NOW MOVING INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT MY NORTHERN ZONES FIRST
OFF THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMPLEX RESIDES IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET THAT`S NOSING EAST AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION. THIS ENHANCEMENT COUPLED WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE
NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND GOOD INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AS
WELL A FEW TORNADOES TO EXIST ACROSS MY NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SEVERAL BOW ECHOES ARE ALSO BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT BEGINS TO SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF MY CWA.
IN ADDITION TO THIS...GIVEN THAT THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY
MOVING ALONG A WEST NORTHWEST TO EAST SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY...IT`S
TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A RAYVILLE LOUISIANA...TO VICKSBURG
MISSISSIPPI...TO YAZOO CITY...TO LEXINGTON...TO MACON LINE. GIVEN
HOW THINGS PLAY OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THIS AREA COULD
BE EXPANDED IN AREA AS WELL AS EXTENDED IN TIME AS THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO DROP FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO BEGINNING TO EVOLVE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS A PRETTY DECENT UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THAT AREA. I DON`T THINK THE WARM FRONT
IS GOING TO MOVE TOO MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN WHAT IT ALREADY
HAS SINCE IT`S BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH A PRETTY DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET
CONTINUING TO DRIVE SOUTHEAST...THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT`S
CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO IMPACT MY NORTHERN ZONES...AS WELL AS THE
EVOLVING COMPLEX OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WILL EVOLVE INTO A
LINE OF CONVECTION THAT`S DRIVEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
MY CWA DURING THE DAY...BY THE BEFORE MENTIONED UPPER JET.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESSENTIALLY FOR TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...I SEE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...INCLUDING THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AS A GOOD BIT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAIN
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MY NORTH WHICH HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ON THE ORDER OF 2
TO 5 INCHES. WITH SUCH A PUSH ALOFT BY THE UPPER JET...SEVERAL
BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL PRODUCE
STRONG DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THEN WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND AMPLE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED...LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH SIZES RANGING FROM AT LEAST PENNY TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
ALSO A FEW TORNADOES CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...AS WELL AS
FLASH FLOODING TO SHIFT MORE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT BEGIN TO SLOWLY WANE DOWN.
FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PICTURE OF WHAT WILL
TRANSPIRE CLOUDS UP QUICKLY...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
WHAT EVOLVES AND FORECAST FROM THERE TO GAIN ANY CONFIDENCE IN
EXACTLY WHAT PLAYS OUT. SOME MODELS WANT TO BLOW THROUGH ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EITHER THROUGH OR NEAR THE CWA...WHILE
OTHERS FOR THE MOST PART KEEP US DRY. GUIDANCE POPS CAME IN
DRASTICALLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS ADVERTISED NUMBERS. THE AIRMASS
OVER THE CWA WILL CERTAINLY TAKE A GOOD HIT BY TODAY`S
CONVECTION...BUT IN THE SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME UNUSED/UNTAPPED
JUICE WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT I DID UP POPS HERE JUST ENOUGH TO GET
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE ZONES. THEN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS WERE SHOWING ANOTHER MCS RACING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. AS A
RESULT...I INCREASED POPS IN THE NORTH TO REFLECT THIS. /19/
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
WHAT THE LATEST FORECAST GUID SUGGESTS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
THE PREV FEW RUNS. MODELS DON`T REALLY INDICATE MUCH OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND SUPPORT
STORMS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER WAVE FOR SAT AND THAT WOULD
HELP WITH THE STORM CHANCES AND HELP PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO THE CWA.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...TIMING THESE FEATURES REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT
AND MESO-SCALE FEATURES WILL CARRY A LOT OF WEIGHT ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WANTING TO STAY WELL N OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...BUT OBSERVED TRENDS OF LATE HAVE PROVEN THE
MODELS WRONG AND ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.
BY EARLY SUN...MODELS HAVE A SFC COOL FRONT DISSECTING THE CWA AND
THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS INTO MON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG AND
S OF THIS FEATURE AND EVEN AS UPPER RIDING DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BE A
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION UNTIL HEIGHTS GET TOO HIGH AND CAPPING TAKES
OVER. THIS RIDGING LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY TUE INTO WED AND THAT SHOULD
PUT AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES AN ALLOW FOR SOME WARM READINGS IN THE
TEMP DEPARTMENT.
AS FOR THE FORECAST ELEMENTS FRI-MON...GUID TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE
AND HAVE FOLLOWED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRI AS THE LATEST GUID
HAS REALLY WARMED AND I`M NOT READY TO HIT ON THE 90-92 VALUES JUST
YET. I LOWERED NEARLY ALL AREAS AROUND 2 DEGREES. AS FOR POPS...GUID
SEEMED A TAD TOO LOW FRI-FRI NIGHT AND HAVE STAYED WITH OUR PREV
FORECAST. AS FOR SAT-WED...GUID SEEMED TO COVER THINGS WELL WITH THE
SFC FRONT LINGERING...THEN DRY THINGS OUT BY TUE-WED. OVERALL...POPS
WILL RANGE FROM 20-40% WITH THE N HALF HAVING THE MAIN SHOT AT
PRECIP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND MORE COMPLEXES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...THE
AREA IS SEEING MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS
AROUND THE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THEM
WILL SEE PERIODS OF IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO
LOWER CEILINGS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE THUNDERSTORMS PASS BY. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS A COUPLE OF STORM COMPLEXES MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT. FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AGAIN RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. /14/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 83 69 87 68 / 85 52 15 16
MERIDIAN 82 68 86 66 / 84 62 16 15
VICKSBURG 84 69 89 69 / 87 44 15 16
HATTIESBURG 86 70 87 69 / 56 52 19 10
NATCHEZ 85 70 84 69 / 68 50 15 10
GREENVILLE 77 67 87 69 / 99 38 10 18
GREENWOOD 78 65 88 68 / 100 40 10 18
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025>059.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023-025.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
22/19/CME/14
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