Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
000 FXUS63 KUNR 250916 AFDUNR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 300 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2008 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROF STRETCHING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE CWFA. SOME CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. LOW END ADVISORY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA...SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEADLINES GOING. FOR SUNDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS A STRONG WAVE DIVES DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS. FOR NOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA SO WILL FORGO ISSUING A WATCH FOR NOW AND LET THE FOLLOWING SHIFT GIVE IT A SECOND LOOK. WITH THE COLD AIR POURING IN...HAVE DROPPED TEMPS A FAIR AMOUNT. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT QUITE A FEW AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AS WINDS START TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN. ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED...UPR RIDGE OVR THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD DOMINATE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BRINGING MAINLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WX. THERE COULD BE SOME SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THRU THE RIDGE THAT WOULD BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES SOME TIME MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...TIMING THESE ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE PLAINS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WY...NONE. && $$
