Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
000 FXUS65 KCYS 251001 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2008 .SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS SETUP IS TYPICAL FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THUS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE INCREASE IN WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS...PARTICULARLY FOR BORDEAUX AREA ALONG INTERSTATE 25 AND ARLINGTON AREA ALONG INTERSTATE 80. ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR BOTH OF THESE AREAS...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 50 TO 55 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. THE NAM INDICATES HEIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CRAIG COLORADO AND CASPER WYOMING TO BRIEFLY BE 55 TO 60 METERS AT 700MB AROUND NOON WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY INDICATE WINDS REACHING NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. WOULD DEFINITELY LIKE TO SEE HEIGHT DIFFERENCES GREATER THAN 65 METERS. THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY BORDERLINE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND WIND DAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND LOWER 60S TO MID 40S FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. ALTHOUGH DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 15F DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND BACK INTO WYOMING AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LACKING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL HAVE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO MID AND UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NW FLOW WILL BE ALOFT MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON TUES THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ID. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO UT AND WRN WY ON WED. THE ECMWF TAKES THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA BY WED EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW FORMING IN THE TROUGH AND TAKES IT INTO NM BY THUR...UNDERNEATH THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL U.S. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE CWA FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS AREA TODAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
