Abstract
Barry Steinberg, Boriana Chopova, Lucilla
Tan, Jared Ogden, Pierre Bahizi, and Geoffrey Paulin (2006)
"Analysis of Recall Effect on the Reporting of
Expenditures for the Consumer Expenditure
Interview Survey"
The Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey has a three-month recall
period. Over the years, researchers have noticed that the level of expenditures
is highest for the most recent recall month, lower for the middle
month, and lowest for the most distant month. This pattern is generally
believed to be caused by respondents gradually forgetting about their
expenditures over time, although other theories have been put forth as
well. To improve the accuracy of the reported expenditures, research
was done to identify the cause of this recall phenomenon, measure its
magnitude, and possibly recommend steps to solving it. This paper
presents a model for quantifying the magnitude of various sources of
the observed recall effect, along with a statistical analysis of the Consumer
Expenditure Survey data. Findings are presented that show the
estimated forgotten amount and its magnitude relative to the model's
predicted, "true" expenditure.
Last Modified Date: January 9, 2007
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