Abstract
Jurgen Kropf, Christopher Manning, Kirk Mueller, and Stuart Scott (2002) "Concurrent Seasonal Adjustment for Industry Employment Statistics."
The Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey, conducted monthly by
the Bureau of Labor Statistics, obtains payroll employment, hours, and
earnings from business establishments and produces industry-based
estimates. Seasonally adjusted month-to-month changes in the CES
national estimates are among the most widely watched economic indicators
for both public and private sector policy makers. Accurate seasonal
adjustment is an important component in the overall accuracy of these
monthly data. The CES program will convert to NAICS industry coding in
2003. In the course of this conversion, concurrent seasonal adjustment
is being considered to replace the traditional seasonal adjustment
method which applies forecasted seasonal factors. This paper discusses
data to be available under the NAICS system, compares results from the
two adjustment methods and discusses the implications of concurrent
adjustment for users.
Last Modified Date: March 19, 2003
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