Chapter 13.
Employment Projections

Assumptions

BLS makes many underlying assumptions to carry out the projection process. The projections themselves should be considered as likely outcomes in light of the assumptions. First, assumptions are made about general economic or social conditions. Recent projections, for example, have included the following assumptions:

• Work patterns will not change significantly over the projections decade; for example, the average workweek will not change markedly;
• broad social and educational trends will continue;
• there will be no major war;
• there will not be a significant change in the size of the Armed Forces; and
• fluctuations in economic activity due to the business cycle will continue.

The assumptions that fall into this first category have both an overall and a particular effect. For example, the assumption that social trends will continue implies that our society will continue to provide for the education of the young in a way that is broadly similar to current practices: this would be considered the overall effect. The particular effect of this assumption would be to influence the projected level of local government expenditures for education and, consequently, the demand for teachers.

Second, BLS analysts try to identify factors, that in the past have exerted a strong influence on the structure of employment. Once such factors have been identified, analysts judge whether those factors will continue to have a similar influence in the future. Conversely, analysts try to identify new or emerging forces that may prove important in future years. Every attempt is made to document these types of assumptions and to indicate how they might influence future employment growth. During the 1970s and early 1980s, for example, retail stores began to centralize their cashier services; as a result, employment of cashiers in retail stores grew while employment of other sales occupations in these stores declined. This factor, in the judgment of BLS economists, will no longer cause changes in the types of workers that retail stores hire because the shift to centralized cashier operations in these stores has been completed.

Finally, it should be noted that BLS uses these assumptions to create the projections, but unexpected changes may modify results. Shifts in technology, consumer preferences, or trade patterns, as well as natural disasters, wars, and other unpredictable events, may alter the path of the projections.

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