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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EDT THU APR 16 2009
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR MAY 2009
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND -0.5 TO -1.0 DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2009 THROUGH THE END OF MARCH - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 5.55 INCHES (48 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 6.19 INCHES (88 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 7.00 INCHES (82 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 48.30 INCHES (146 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FOR MAY 2009. NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR MAY 2009.
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| TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | HILO | B40 | 73.8 | 0.6 | | EC | 5.9 | 7.4 | 8.1 | | KAHULUI | B40 | 75.7 | 0.7 | | EC | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | | HONOLULU | B40 | 77.6 | 0.4 | | EC | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | | LIHUE | B40 | 75.7 | 0.6 | | EC | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR MJJ 2009 TO MJJ 2010 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS DURING MARCH 2009 CONTINUED TO REFLECT WEAK LA NIÑA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER - A TRANSITION FROM LA NIÑA TO ENSO-NEUTRAL IS UNDERWAY IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SSTS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE - BUT NEGATIVE DEPARTURES HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE FEBRUARY 2009. THE LARGEST NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC - WHILE POSITIVE ANOMALIES HAVE SHIFTED EAST TO NEAR 120W. CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED NEAR THE DATE LINE - AND ENHANCED ACROSS INDONESIA. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ALSO DECREASED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. A MAJORITY OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE NIÑO-3.4 REGION SHOW THAT ONCE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE REACHED - IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 2009. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS - RECENT TRENDS - AND MODEL FORECASTS - A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING APRIL 2009.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FROM MJJ TO JJA 2009. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HILO IS EXPECTED FROM ASO TO OND 2009. |
| HILO | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | MJJ 2009 | B40 | 75.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.1 | 23.1 | 27.8 | | JJA 2009 | B40 | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.5 | 24.2 | 29.6 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.2 | 27.1 | 32.7 | | ASO 2009 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | | A40 | 23.4 | 27.0 | 31.0 | | SON 2009 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | | A40 | 25.8 | 31.7 | 38.4 | | OND 2009 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | | A40 | 26.1 | 33.1 | 41.3 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.5 | 32.9 | 41.7 | | DJF 2009 | EC | 72.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 20.1 | 27.2 | 35.9 | | JFM 2010 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | | EC | 23.9 | 30.9 | 39.4 | | FMA 2010 | EC | 72.1 | 0.4 | | EC | 29.5 | 35.9 | 43.1 | | MAM 2010 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 28.3 | 34.9 | 42.6 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.0 | 26.8 | 32.2 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 75.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.1 | 23.1 | 27.8 |
| KAHULUI | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | MJJ 2009 | B40 | 77.3 | 0.6 | | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | | JJA 2009 | B40 | 78.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 79.1 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | | ASO 2009 | EC | 78.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | | SON 2009 | EC | 77.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 | | OND 2009 | EC | 75.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2009 | EC | 72.5 | 0.5 | | EC | 6.8 | 9.0 | 11.7 | | JFM 2010 | EC | 72.4 | 0.5 | | EC | 6.0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | | FMA 2010 | EC | 73.2 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.3 | 6.0 | 8.1 | | MAM 2010 | EC | 74.4 | 0.6 | | EC | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.8 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 75.8 | 0.6 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 77.3 | 0.6 | | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| HONOLULU | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | MJJ 2009 | B40 | 79.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | | JJA 2009 | B40 | 80.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 81.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | | ASO 2009 | EC | 81.0 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.8 | | SON 2009 | EC | 79.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.9 | | OND 2009 | EC | 77.3 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.5 | 6.2 | 8.4 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2009 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 5.0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | | JFM 2010 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.1 | 5.8 | 8.0 | | FMA 2010 | EC | 74.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.1 | | MAM 2010 | EC | 76.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 79.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| LIHUE | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | MJJ 2009 | B40 | 77.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.6 | 6.2 | 8.0 | | JJA 2009 | B40 | 78.8 | 0.3 | | EC | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6.6 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 79.3 | 0.3 | | EC | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.4 | | ASO 2009 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | | EC | 6.3 | 8.0 | 10.0 | | SON 2009 | EC | 77.7 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | | OND 2009 | EC | 75.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 10.7 | 13.3 | 16.2 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 73.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.8 | 12.5 | 15.8 | | DJF 2009 | EC | 72.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 8.6 | 11.4 | 14.7 | | JFM 2010 | EC | 72.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 8.0 | 10.8 | 14.1 | | FMA 2010 | EC | 73.1 | 0.4 | | EC | 7.5 | 9.6 | 12.0 | | MAM 2010 | EC | 74.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 7.3 | 9.2 | 11.4 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 5.3 | 7.0 | 9.0 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 77.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.6 | 6.2 | 8.0 |
FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU MAY 21, 2009
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