TooZ
To6Z
T12Z
T18Z
T00Z
T06Z
T12Z
T18Z
T00Z
T06Z
T12Z
T18Z
Today's GFS forecast (00Z and 12Z) for tropical eastern Pac and Atlantic
Today's GFS (00Z and 12Z) forecast for tropical western Pac
AVN tropical storm track status with MRFX
Tropical storm track (72-hr fcst) status with MRFX
summer 2000 parallel using sas01 with random cloud top selection and momentum mixing by convection
summer 2000 parallel X. part of it with random cloud top part with deepest cloud top
Example of the relocation algorithm
These are the storm track stats for convection change with a relocation that was only correcting to the within 15 km. EXP2 is the test package results
tropical storm track verification for 1999 compared with other operational center results
The following gif file shows the comparison of the experimental runs with the operational AVN runs. (EXP1 convection change with a relocation that is to the nearest degree lat/long point, EXP2 convection change and relocation to the nearest 15 km)
tropical storm track verification for 1999
The following two figures are precipitation scores for U.S. for the convection test. For these scores, PRY stood for the experimental convection runs.
T126 Precip threat score for August 1999
T126 Precip bias score for August 1999
Following are a set of month long assimilation and forecast results using T62 system to test tropical climate response to convection change. prq is the designated name for the experimental runs while pra is the control.
Tropical relative humidity cross-section
day1 forecast prh exp and control oct99 mean
day16 forecast prh exp and control oct99 mean
Pwat day16 forecast prh exp and control oct99 mean
OLR day16 forecast prh exp and control oct99 mean
These are the SST anomalies for which convection tests for month long integration are done
Observed precip for January 1998
Predicted precip for January 1998
Observed precip for January 1999
Predicted precip for January 1999