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Forecast Verification
Introduction
Short-term warnings and forecasts of geophysical activity are some of the services provided by
Space Weather Prediction Center's Space Weather Forecast Office. Effective use of these warnings and forecasts
requires knowledge of their capability and limitations. Verification statistics and other quality information
for these products can be found through these web pages. The majority of the forecasts on SWPC ’s primary
daily forecast product–the Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical
Activity (SDF)–are covered, as well as SWPC’s geomagnetic K 5 and K 6 short-term warnings
and short-term warnings of 10 MeV proton events. Also found here are a glossary of verification terms, including formula
for the various metrics, and a verification bibliography that includes links to several PDF files of verification related papers.
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Short Term Warnings
Solar Flare Forecasts
Solar Flux and Particle Event Forecasts
Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts
Verification Resources
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