Hurricane GUSTAV

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HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
0300 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.
 
INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  80.4W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  80.4W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  80.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.6N  81.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 85NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE  90SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.3N  83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 105SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N  85.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 105SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.7N  87.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.5N  90.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.5N  93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 31.5N  94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  80.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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