Tropical Storm HANNA

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TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D INDICATE
THAT HANNA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AS
THE LATEST CONVECTIVE BURST HAS PRODUCED AN INNER WIND CORE. 
HOWEVER...THE RADAR-OBSERVED VELOCITIES DO NOT YET SUGGEST
INTENSIFICATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE CENTER OF HANNA JOGGED WESTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z.  HOWEVER...THE
MELBOURNE RADAR SUGGEST THE CENTER HAS RESUMED A MORE NORTHWARD
MOTIONS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 325/17.  HANNA IS
MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERLIES IN 24-48 HR.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION. 
ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 36 HR
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK THEREAFTER.

WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE STILL
ISSUES...THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT NEAR LANDFALL.  NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT HANNA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THE
GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPENING AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 28.9N  79.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 31.2N  79.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 34.5N  79.1W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 38.2N  76.1W    45 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 42.5N  70.1W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 49.0N  52.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 50.5N  35.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1200Z 51.0N  18.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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