Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions: 1
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FGUS73 KILX 271642
ESFILX
ILC009-017-025-033-057-079-095-101-113-123-125-129-137-143-147-155-
159-167-169-179-183-203-281642-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1142 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES...AHPS...ENABLES
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...NWS...TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS FOR THE
ILLINOIS...SANGAMON...MACKINAW AND SPOON RIVERS AS WELL AS SALT
CREEK...AND THE 95 TO 5 PERCENT COLUMNS FOR THE VERMILION...EMBARRAS
AND LITTLE WABASH RIVERS...INDICATE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...THE
CHANCES OF THE RIVER RISING ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE DURING THE NEXT 90
DAYS.
EXAMPLE USING THE TABLE BELOW THIS SECTION...
THE SANGAMON RIVER AT OAKFORD HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 471 FEET.
WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 471 FEET.
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID OCT. 26 2008 - JAN. 24 2009
ALL STAGES IN FEET
LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
ILLINOIS RIVER
HENRY 23.0 15.9 16.5 17.9 20.3 22.9 24.4 27.0 28.3 31.3
PEORIA 18.0 12.8 13.0 13.6 15.7 19.3 20.9 23.3 24.4 27.2
HAVANA 14.0 8.7 10.4 12.3 13.8 15.4 16.4 19.2 19.8 23.7
BEARDSTOWN 14.0 10.9 11.2 12.4 14.2 17.1 18.5 21.3 24.7 28.9
SPOON RIVER
LONDON MILLS 15.0 4.1 5.7 7.5 9.6 10.6 12.3 14.3 16.9 19.8
SEVILLE 22.0 8.2 9.8 10.9 13.4 14.7 15.8 18.6 21.8 24.1
MACKINAW RIVER
CONGERVILLE 13.0 3.0 4.4 5.2 7.2 8.3 9.4 10.4 12.7 16.2
SANGAMON RIVER
MONTICELLO 13.0 7.1 9.5 11.2 12.3 12.9 13.3 14.0 14.5 16.8
RIVERTON 23.0 6.7 9.6 12.5 15.2 16.8 17.9 19.4 21.9 24.8
PETERSBURG 23.0 6.8 7.6 9.0 11.2 13.4 15.4 18.6 22.6 25.9
SALT CREEK
GREENVIEW 16.0 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.8 10.2 10.8 11.9 14.2 17.3
LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
SANGAMON RIVER
OAKFORD 471.0 459 461 463 464 466 468 469 471 473
CHANDLERVILLE 456.6 446 448 449 451 453 455 456 459 460
LOCATION FS (FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
VERMILION RIVER
DANVILLE 18.0 3.6 4.2 6.5 10.3 14.1 18.5 20.3
LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CLAY CITY 16.0 8.0 9.5 14.2 19.3 20.6 22.3 23.5
EMBARRAS RIVER
STE MARIE 19.0 2.4 2.8 5.8 10.6 16.6 20.4 21.7
LAWRENCEVILLE 30.0 20.3 20.7 23.2 27.0 31.8 35.4 36.1
NOTES...
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED.
THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).
___________________________________________________________________
FOR MORE INFORMATION...
VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN (USE LOWER CASE)
FOR MORE OFFICIAL NWS RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION. TO VIEW
GRAPHICAL AHPS INFORMATION...INCLUDING FORECASTS...SELECT AHPS/RIVER
INFO FROM THE LIST ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE WEB PAGE. FULL AHPS
GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS IN THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS SERVICE AREA.
FOR 30 TO 90 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...VISIT THE
WEB PAGE OF THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV (USE LOWER CASE)
$$
DRH
