Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39 40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
000 FXUS63 KILX 250710 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 210 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 210 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008 00Z UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IOWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING IT HAVING PUSHED INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LARGELY SCATTERED OUT DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AGAIN NORTHWEST OF I-55. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY DEALS WITH THE BLAST OF COLD AIR THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS THE ACCOMPANYING WINDY CONDITIONS. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN TODAY. EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. EARLY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEAST. WHILE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST PORTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S. COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN EARNEST BY MONDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE ITS FIRST FREEZING CONDITIONS OF THE SEASON. HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FACTOR WILL BE THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. 150 KT JET EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO OUR NORTH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH 50 KTS ALOFT AS LOW AS 800 MB. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING IN THE MID 30S. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY AT SOME POINT...BUT WILL DEFER THE DECISION TO DAY SHIFT FOR NOW. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY MORNING. GEELHART && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1155 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008 PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BUT ADDITIONAL VFR CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. BELIEVE PIA AND BMI WILL BE PREDOMINATELY BKN WHILE SPI...DEC AND CMI WILL BE SCT WITH TEMPO BKN FROM 06-10Z. BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP...APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THAT SHOULD REACH THE AREA BY MORNING. DO EXPECT STRATOCU TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES TOMORROW WITH LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE IN THE AREA. BELIEVE WE COULD HAVE BKN CLOUDS FOR A TIME PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS SEE OUT WEST TODAY. THEN EXPECT SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES FOR THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONGER WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AUTEN && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
