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National Situation Update: Sunday, October 12, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
The combination of snow and gusty winds may produce blizzard conditions across Wyoming and eastern Montana; this area could receive over twelve inches of snow due to a powerful storm moving across the Northwest.  Numerous Winter Storm and Freeze Warnings are in effect across the region.  Strong Santa Ana winds could develop across parts of Southern California due to high pressure building in the Great Basin.  Numerous Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect across California.
Midwest:
The western Dakotas may see significant snow accumulations with over a foot of snow possible in the South Dakota Black Hills.  A cold front moving eastward may produce rain and thunderstorms from the Upper Midwest to Kansas and northwest Missouri.  Rainfall totals could reach up to four inches from southwest Kansas to western Iowa.  Flood Warnings are in effect for rivers in Minnesota and North Dakota.  Numerous Winter Storm and Freeze Warnings are in effect across the region.
South:
A cold front moving toward the southern High Plains may produce thunderstorms across western Oklahoma and western Texas.  A weakening upper-level low may bring showers and thunderstorms from southern South Carolina to central Georgia to Florida.  Flood Warnings are in effect for rivers in Texas and Oklahoma.
Northeast:
The region will be generally dry except for a few showers accompanying a southbound cold front later today. (NOAA; National Weather Service; Various Media Sources)

Deer Park Fire near Saint Helena, Napa County

• At 6:10 p.m. PDT on October 10, 2008, a fire was reported just east of Saint Helena, Napa County.
• As of 8:00 a.m. PDT on October 11, 2008, the fire is 40% contained and at 300 acres burned. 
• Two structures have been destroyed; 210 are threatened.
• The voluntary evacuation center at Saint Helena High School has closed.
• The Napa County EOC is not activated at this time.
• Potential Federal involvement is not known at this time.

Presidio, TX Update

• The Mexican Section of the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) advised on the evening of Saturday, October 11 that significant precipitation is expected in the Upper Conchos River Basin in Mexico on Sunday and Monday, October 12-13.
• Mexico has advised that releases from Luis Leon Dam are currently 300 cubic meters per second (cms).
• Beginning as early as Monday, October 13, these releases could increase to 400 cms, with progressive increases as conditions warrant, up to 800 cms. If flows increase above 500 cubic meters per second, the Mexican Section of USIBWC reports that additional structural problems can be expected.
• These predictions of water release are based on projected rainfall.
• Although the water surface is well below the top of the levee, USIBWC crews continue monitoring the levees 24 hours per day and responding to structural problems such as levee seepage and sand boils.
• Peak flows of 1500 cms were experienced on September 16, 2008.  Although the potential flow of up to 800 cms is significantly below last month's peak, the Rio Grande levee remains at risk of structural failure.
• The USIBWC operates and maintains 15 miles of Rio Grande flood control levees in the Presidio area, providing protection to 5,403 acres of land on the United States side of the Presidio-Ojinaga Valley.
• Personnel monitor the situation 24 hours per day. Three additional management personnel will be deployed on Monday, October 13, to staff the local EOC and work on the levee system.
• The State of TX is preparing for possible Rio Grande flooding as result of Norbert, which is expected to reach TX as a Tropical Depression.
• The State will have 250 Offenders on stand-by to assist with continued sand bagging operations and a TXDOT Strike Team to assist with levee reinforcement.
• A TX Commission on Environmental Quality Strike Team (TCEQ) will be deployed to assist with levee surveillance 24/7. 
• The State of TX expects to have these resources in place by Monday, October 13, with Flood Fight Operations beginning on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
97L
A large area of disturbed weather centered about 1650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is moving northward at 5 to 10 mph.  Showers and thunderstorms have diminished this morning, and upper-level winds appear to be a little less conducive for development; however, there still is some potential for tropical cyclone formation in this area during the next day or so.

98L
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located about 240 miles west of the Windward Islands.  The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.  Some slow development is possible during the next day or two as the system drifts northwestward.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Norbert
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was about 140 miles southwest of Chihuahua, Mexico.  Norbert is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph and this general motion is expected to continue today.  On this track, Norbert, or its remnants, are expected to move over northwestern Mexico this morning, and over western Texas and New Mexico later today.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Norbert is expected to rapidly weaken to a depression later this morning and to dissipate as a tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical Storm Odile
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Odile was about 60 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Movement is toward the west near 7 mph. A continued motion toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours.  The forecast track takes the center of Odile a bit farther away from the coast of Mexico; however, only a small deviation from the forecast track would bring the center very close or onshore within the warning area.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.  Odile remains poorly organized and could weaken to a Tropical Depression during the next 24 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Puerto Rico: The USGS reports that at 6:40 a.m. EDT on October 11 a magnitude 6.1 earthquake occurred offshore, 92 miles NE of Carolina, PR at a depth of 18.2 miles.  The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) received reports that this moderate earthquake was felt in San Juan, Guaynabo, Mayaguez, Utuado, and Anasco, Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands.  A secondary quake was also reported at 7:26 a.m. EDT, magnitude 3.5.  No tsunami warning, watch, or advisory was generated, and no damage has been reported or is expected considering the size and location of the earthquake. (FEMA HQ, USGS, National Weather Service West Coast /Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Saturday, October 11, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 1
Initial attack activity: Light (67 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Uncontained large fires: 1
Large fires contained: 1
States with large fires: CA
Fire Weather: A large upper low over the Great Basin is bringing strong, gusty north to northeast winds to northern and central California. These winds extend down to the mountain ranges north of Los Angeles with generally onshore flow to the south. Santa Ana winds are on tap for southern California starting Sunday.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)