National Weather Service Professional Development Series Professional Competency Unit

Description of Job Duty Competency to be Achieved

Understand and know how to use applications such as the Statistical Water Supply (SWS) system.

Description of Need

Hydrologic modeling over the extended range forecast period can be accomplished by statistical analysis of runoff volumes and hydrometeorological inputs such as snowpack water equivalents and precipitation.

Specific Job Task Skills and Knowledge

1. Understand basic statistics as they apply to hydrologic forecasting.

2. Use relational database (e.g., Informix) to obtain historical data.

3. Prepare historical data for use in statistical water supply forecasting.

4. Develop regression equations and select the most appropriate equation(s).

Instructional Components

Instructional Component 3.1: - Regional Workshop: Statistical Water Supply Forecasting. At periodic regional workshops, locally-developed statistical water supply forecasting software will be demonstrated and training will be provided.

Instructional Component 3.2 - Various Training Mechanisms: PCU #11, Model Calibration and Hydrologic Procedure Development: Local Procedure Development. Selected instructional components in this PCU apply to statistical water supply forecasting.

Instructional Component 3.3 - On-Station Training: Statistical Water Supply Forecasting. Individual RFCs will provide their forecasters with training on how local statistical water supply forecast procedures were developed and how they are used in the office.

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