Interactions of Climate Change and Other Environmental Factors on Invasive Plant Infestation in the Arid West: Invasive Forbs

In this study the current and potential future distribution of select invasive forbs in the southwest are examined under different scenarios of climate.  Secondly landscapes that have been predicted to be vulnerable to native vegetation change as a result of global climate change and are now susceptible to increased colonization by invasive species will be identified.

The invasive forb project is developing spatial models of the predicted distribution (niche space) for at least 20 invasive forbs in the southwest (Arizona and adjacent portions of California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico) based on current climate conditions and under different scenarios of climate change for the southwest.  Secondly vulnerable landscapes within the study area will be identified.  Vulnerable landscapes are those areas with current vegetation types that support native species whose predicted distribution (niche space) is expected to shift or become more marginal as a result of climate change in the southwest.

The model input databases have been developed and include spatial databases of native plant distributions and invasive forb occurrences in the six state area.  A database of invasive forb habitat requirements and dispersal characteristics is in development.  Preliminary testing of MODIS satellite imagery for identification of vulnerable landscapes has been conducted.  Predictive modeling approaches using Biomapper and MaxEnt were examined in a parallel modeling project, as were model assessment and display techniques.

Models of potential distribution/suitable habitat for invasive forbs will be developed and evaluated.  Vulnerable landscapes will be identified using these models and MODIS satellite output.

	Contact: Kathryn Thomas USGS Southwest Biological Science Center Sonoran Desert Research Station, 125 Biological Sciences East University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona 85716 Kathryn_a_thomas@usgs.gov Websites: BRD Global Change Program (this web site will be updated soon) Southwest Exotic Plant Information Clearinghouse