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February 1996
1996 HIV/AIDS Trends Provide Evidence of Success
in HIV Prevention and Treatment
AIDS Deaths Decline for First Time
For the first time in the epidemic, there has been a marked decrease in deaths among people
with AIDS. The decline in deaths is likely due to both the slowing of the epidemic overall and
to improved treatments over the past several years, which have lengthened the lifespan of
people with AIDS. While it is too soon to determine the impact protease inhibitors will have
on these trends, these drugs promise to further lengthen the lifespan of individuals living
with HIV. Additionally, the estimated number of people diagnosed with AIDS each year (AIDS
incidence) continued to slow, with an increase of only 2% in 1995, reflecting in part the
ongoing success of prevention efforts.
As treatment advances continue to improve survival, we will face a number of key
challenges:
- First, if the number of new HIV infections each year (HIV incidence) remains stable or
increases, and deaths continue to decrease, there will be an increasing number of people
living with HIV and AIDS. Additional resources will likely be needed for services,
treatment, and care.
- Second, to continue to provide the necessary data to plan, direct, and evaluate HIV
prevention efforts, HIV/AIDS surveillance systems must adapt to changes in medical
practices which increase survival following diagnosis of HIV or AIDS. If progression to
AIDS is successfully delayed for an increasing number of individuals, AIDS case reports
may no longer provide a reliable indication of trends in the epidemic and will
underrepresent the need for treatment services. Surveillance systems will therefore need
to improve methods to monitor the number of individuals with HIV infection.
- And finally, as we continue to work to develop better treatment options, we must not
lose sight of the fact that preventing HIV infection reduces the number of people who need
to undergo complex, costly treatment regimens. Prevention remains our best and most
cost-effective approach for bringing the HIV/AIDS epidemic under control and saving lives.
The 1996 Data: Trends in Case Reports, Estimated AIDS Incidence and Deaths
AIDS Cases Reported through December 1996
- 581,429 people with AIDS have been reported to date.
- Of these, 488,300 (84%) were men, 85,500 (15%) were women, and 7,629 (1%) were children.
- In 1996, blacks accounted for a larger proportion of AIDS cases (41%) than whites for
the first time.
- The proportion of female AIDS cases continued to increase. In 1996, women accounted for
20% of newly reported AIDS cases.
Trends in AIDS Incidence through 1995
Between 1994 and 1995, the estimated number of people diagnosed with AIDS (AIDS incidence)
increased 2%, from 61,200 to 62,200. These estimates reflect a slowing in the growth of the
epidemic, with an average of 15,200 people diagnosed each quarter between January 1994 and
June 1996. Hopefully, with a combined strategy to prevent new infections and to provide early
diagnosis and treatment for people who are infected, AIDS incidence will soon begin to
decline.
- AIDS incidence rates per 100,000 people in the population were 7 times higher among
blacks (99) than among whites (15), and three times higher among Hispanics (50) than among
whites.
- AIDS incidence rates were much lower among women (10) than among men (48)
- AIDS incidence remained relatively constant among men who have sex with men (decline of
2%) and IDUs (increase of 2%), but continued to increase substantially among people
infected heterosexually (17% increase).
In 1995, the CDC AIDS surveillance system documented approximately 50,000 AIDS deaths. 1995
marked the smallest increase to date in AIDS deaths. During the first 2 quarters of 1996, the
estimated number of AIDS deaths (22,000) was 12% less than the estimated number of AIDS deaths
during the first two quarters of 1995 (24,900), marking the first decline in AIDS deaths since
the beginning of the epidemic. Not surprisingly, trends in AIDS deaths closely parallel trends
documented recently in AIDS incidence. AIDS deaths have not declined among women or among
heterosexuals.
- AIDS deaths declined in all four regions of the country (Northeast 15%, South 8%,
Midwest 11%, West 16%).
- Deaths declined among men by 15% but increased among women by 3%.
- Deaths declined among MSM by 18% and 6% among IDUs, but increased 3% among
heterosexuals.
- Deaths declined among all racial/ethnic groups, but declines were greater among whites
(21%) than among blacks (2%) and Hispanics (10%).
- HIV infection remains the leading cause of death among 2544 year olds, accounting for
19% of deaths in this age group.
The number of people living with AIDS continues to increase. As of mid-1996, an estimated
223,000 people were living with AIDS.
- AIDS prevalence has increased 10% since mid-1995.
- The largest number of people living with AIDS by risk category are MSM (44%), followed
by IDU (26%), and heterosexuals (12%).
- The greatest proportionate increase in AIDS prevalence from mid-1995 to mid-1996
occurred among those infected heterosexually (19%), while the greatest increase in the
number of people living with AIDS occurred among MSM (5000).
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