CONTACT: Frank Lepore FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 5/29/96
Technology and risk are watchwords for the 1996 hurricane season that begins June 1, as vulnerable U.S. coastal populations brace for a seesaw season of storms, said the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Robert W. Burpee, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, part of NOAA's National Weather Service, told hurricane specialists, emergency managers and news media gathered for a seasonal preview that while the nation's forecast capability continues to improve with the introduction of new technology and observing systems, rising population in our coastal areas is putting more people at risk.
"Our ability to accurately predict the track of a hurricane has improved over the past 20 years by about 1 percent per year, while coastal population growth has increased 3 to 4 percent yearly," Burpee said.
NOAA Administrator D. James Baker said that modernization of the National Weather Service continues to receive priority attention as the federal budget tightens.
Baker warned, however, that continued funding for the operational and research components of NOAA is critical, if the agency is to maintain a leading edge in accurately forecasting hurricane track and intensity.
"NOAA has made significant advances in hurricane research and forecasting. With these advances we've been able to make more specific and targeted forecasts and predictions of landfall, thus saving millions of dollars in evacuation costs," Baker said. "But the biggest payoff, of course, has been lives saved, despite the substantial increases in population along the coasts."
Coastal populations have out-paced science, though, and an increasing number of seasonal and permanent residents along the coasts, particularly on the barrier islands, are at risk from rapidly-rising waters known as storm surge. It is difficult to evacuate people from these areas because roadways and bridges cannot handle the traffic.
"We strive to post hurricane warnings 24 hours before landfall," Burpee said. "But some of the nation's most vulnerable locations -- Galveston Island, New Orleans, and the Florida Keys -- require more than 30 hours to evacuate." Burpee added that "our nightmare is that a major hurricane will strike with an evacuation only half completed and vulnerable traffic on the highways."
"Nearly 50 million coastal residents face a return to a level of hurricane activity last experienced in the 1940-60's, when major hurricanes struck the coast more frequently," Burpee said. "Up to six hurricanes have made landfall in a year -- most recently 1985 - - but the average is between one and two." A major hurricane -- category three, four or five on the Saffir-Simpson scale -- strikes the coast on average twice every three years. Major hurricanes cause most fatalities and damage. Average annual hurricane damage is now around $5 billion.
Commenting on the 1995 season, the second most active in 125 years with 19 named storms (11 hurricanes, five of them major), Burpee said, "Hopefully, the 1995 season was a 'spike' on the long record."
Safeguarding an increasing, vulnerable population is a team effort, Burpee noted. "Preparation and coordination between the National Weather Service, FEMA, state and local governments, universities and the private sector are critical to mitigating the impact of hurricanes. But everyone must be prepared, and then act on information from these sources."
###NOTE TO EDITORS: Press Conference 5/29/96, 10:00 AM, National Hurricane Center, 11691 S.W. 17th Street, Miami, FL 33165. National Hurricane Center's Web Site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
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