Contact:  Matt Stout                FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE   
                                    12/18/96

NOAA's CONTRIBUTION TO FURTHERING OUR UNDERSTANDING OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY STUDIED

The National Research Council today released its report on the accomplishments and legacies of the Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere program calling it a "model for how to do earth sciences." The TOGA program, which began in January 1985 and ended in December of 1994, has made major advances in the understanding of the strongest climate variation on seasonal-to-interannual timescales, El Ni¤o and Southern Oscillation.

According to the NRC report "TOGA opened the way to the future of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. The follow-on programs will further develop the means of predicting the climate for the ultimate benefit of humankind."

For more than 10 years, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration led the U.S. interagency TOGA program in the United States. During this period NOAA, primarily though its Office of Global Programs, provided more than 50 percent of the funding for the U.S. portion of this multi-disciplinary program. Ultimately, more than 18 countries participated. In the United States, NOAA's role was complimented by intense efforts at the National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Department of Defense Office of Navy Research.

NOAA's major contributions to the research effort were:

• development and oversight of a peer-reviewed research grants program that provided much of the intellectual leadership for the advances in our understanding of the El Ni¤o and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes,
• establishment of an observational system spanning 10,000 miles of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to support real-time monitoring and experimental prediction of ENSO, and
• development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models capable of predicting ENSO up to a year in advance.

TOGA achieved much of its success in part because the program concentrated on a piece of the climate puzzle where the pieces looked like they might fit together.

Additional research is still required to develop the skill for predicting short-term climate variations caused by other processes or in other parts of the world.

The NRC report calls for further efforts to maintain the observing system, create an institute for developing applications of short-term climate forecasts, and a program for continued research on seasonal-to-interannual climate variations as well as the influences of longer timescales and their predictability.

NOAA continues to ensure that the 10 year, TOGA research investment is carried to its ultimate conclusion--seasonal to interannual forecasts that are used by decision-makers for economic and societal benefit. Since the completion of TOGA, NOAA has:

• initiated experimental climate forecasts on seasonal-to-interannual timescales for decision-makers in various sectors including agriculture, energy, coastal fisheries, forestry, transportation, and water resources.
• convened an international meeting with more than 40 countries to launch the TOGA Board's recommendation to establish the International Institute for Climate Prediction called for in the NRC report. The President's Science Advisor, Jack Gibbons, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrator, Dr. James Baker, were the hosts.
• accelerated the application of demonstrated predictive capabilities in societal and economic planning of benefit to societies worldwide.

In the future, NOAA plans to:

• transfer the climate observing system in the equatorial Pacific Ocean from aresearch to an operational system,
• implement systems to provide routine delivery of climate forecasts in the United States through the National Weather Service and provide the United States's contribution to the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, and
• undertake research to improve ENSO and climate forecasts with an emphasis on seasonal predictions for the United States and the connection between ENSO and climate processes on longer timescales from decades to centuries.

Much remains to be done for implementing a comprehensive system for climate prediction. NOAA with its partner agencies will continue to provide leadership and support.