CONTACT:  Frank Lepore                      FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
                                            5/28/98

As storm activity returns toward normal following last year's El Nino reprieve, a more focused approach such as the Natural Disaster Reduction Initiative is likely to help coastal populations weather the 1998 hurricane season, June 1 - November 30, Commerce Department officials said today at the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"We have the science technology to forecast and track hurricanes. We also have proven highly-skilled personnel to develop warnings and communicate them to the public. Now we are working to better educate the public and help local governments, businesses, and residents prepare for hurricanes and other natural disasters," said National Weather Service Director Jack Kelly who was joined today by Deputy Secretary of Commerce Robert Mallett, NOAA Administrator D. James Baker, and National Hurricane Center Director Jerry D. Jarrell for a seasonal preview briefing for emergency managers and news media.

Deputy Secretary Mallett discussed the Natural Disaster Reduction Initiative, a program that brings together federal agencies, including the Department of Commerce, for the first time to build disaster-resistant communities and jobs.

"NDRI is three-pronged," Mallett said. "First, it seeks to lower weather-related losses through improved construction techniques. The Department of Commerce has committed $3 million a year for research on wind, seismic and fire engineering. Second, NDRI should improve weather prediction. The President's proposed 1999 budget requests an additional $55 million a year for weather and flood forecasting. Third, NDRI should help communities and businesses safeguard jobs in hazard prone areas. The President is requesting $3 million per year of new funding for economic development so the Commerce Department can work in public-private partnerships to build disaster-resistant communities."

"NOAA's continuing investment in science technology has paid early dividends," said Kelly, noting that NOAA's new high altitude jet, the Gulfstream-IV, was used operationally for the first time last year during Tropical Storm Claudette. The jet flies at 45,000 feet around the hurricane to measure and define the steering currents that guide these storms.

"Preliminary results are promising," Kelly said. "We had a limited number of trials last year using the jet and its instrument packages, yet data collected improved the track forecast by as much as 32 percent in the critical 24-36 hours when forecasters issue storm warnings and watches. This improvement in storm-track forecasting could represent a reduction in the coastal area we place under a hurricane warning and therefore reduce the costs of unnecessary evacuation."

"On the individual level, new technology for NOAA Weather Radio has improved the way we communicate urgent warning messages to the public," said Kelly. The newest generation of NOAA Weather Radio receivers have a feature called SAME (Specific Area Message Encoding) that lets listeners pre-select the National Weather Service warnings they want to receive based on the county in which they live.

"This hurricane season, SAME radios will be invaluable for receiving life-saving warning information in tornado and flash flooding events often associated with land- falling hurricanes," Kelly said. At the briefing, a new videotape public service announcement about the radios narrated by Vice President Al Gore premiered.

"While El Nino suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity last year, researchers indicate that its influence should fade by early this fall," Jarrell said. The 1997 hurricane activity was below normal with seven named tropical storms (storms are given names when their wind speeds are 39 mph or higher); three of these developed into hurricanes (with wind speeds in excess of 74 mph); one hurricane was classified as "major" with wind speeds in excess of 111 mph. That contrasts with average activity in the Atlantic: 10 named storms, seven hurricanes, with two reaching major intensity.

Jarrell also cautioned that hurricanes are always life-threatening and potentially destructive. Vigilance is necessary, even if the number of storms is low. He noted that the destructiveness of Hurricane Andrew in 1992, the nation's costliest storm, and last year's Hurricane Danny both caused serious hardships while occurring in otherwise quiet seasons.

"We and our parent agency, the Department of Commerce, work with many other federal, state and local agencies in mitigating the effects of hurricanes," Jarrell noted. "At NOAA, our efforts range from national policy coordination to the continuation of hurricane research. In the final analysis, though, it comes down to the most important link in the chain, the public. The people in front of a hurricane have to take personal responsibility. They have to make a plan. They have to take action when advised by local emergency management officials. If the public does so, we can be successful," Jarrell said.

Note to broadcast producers: Vice President Al Gore has videotaped 30- and 60- second public service announcements on NOAA Weather Radio, the "voice of the National Weather Service." Stations interested in downlinking the PSAs via satellite on June 16 should contact Diana Gonzalez of Potomac Television at 1-800- 666-7882.