Contact: Bob Chartuk               FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
                                   1/29/98

A much warmer and wetter January for much of the eastern United States will have a significant impact on the potential for early spring flooding this year, according to flood potential outlook statements issued by the National Weather Service, which is part of the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"The current weather pattern continues to produce abundant rainfall in the Southeast and many areas in the Northeast," said Solomon G. Summer, National Weather Service regional hydrologist. "While snowfall and river ice conditions are well below normal, the excessive rainfall has resulted in saturated soils and increased stream flow," noted Summer. "This pattern is consistent with an El Nino climatology, and we expect that the pattern will continue for the next several weeks."

The southeast United States has the highest flood potential as area rivers remain high because of the heavy rains, according to the flood potential statements issued by National Weather Service field offices. Runoff from these rains over the past months has caused minor to moderate flooding on rivers within the Pee Dee River Basin of North and South Carolina. Specifically, the Lumber River is flowing full and the forecast points are at record flood stage. This trend is expected to continue as most flooding in the coastal plain in the southeast is driven by rainfall and runoff, Summer said.

In the Piedmont of the Carolinas, the flood potential is also above normal due to saturated soil conditions. "If this pattern continues, wet soil conditions, which are a contributing factor to flood potential, will continue and will add to the heightened flood potential in the Southeast," Summer said.

The potential for flooding is also above normal in northern Maine and normal elsewhere in New England. The flood potential is heightened in northern Maine primarily because of the two-three feet of snow on the ground which has resulted in snow water equivalents in the three-six inch range, the National Weather Service said.

Elsewhere in the Northeast, snowpacks and water equivalents are below normal as a result of the unusually warm and wet start to the new year. Snow depths are well under a foot across much of New York state, except in the snowbelt of Lake Ontario where depths average between one and two feet with water equivalent of around an inch. The early January thaw and excessive rainfall was responsible for record and near-record flooding earlier this month in upstate New York's Black River Basin and the Lake Ontario drainage basin.

The potential for flooding in the mid-Atlantic and Ohio River basin is near normal to below normal. Although the soils in the Ohio River valley have been wet since the fall, snowpack and snow water equivalent are low.

No water supply shortages are expected during the upcoming spring or early summer assuming near normal precipitation during the next several months. Drought warnings that were in place last summer and fall have been lifted and only a few drought watches in central Pennsylvania are in effect. Ground water levels are generally above average, and water supply reservoirs are normal in most areas. The New York City Reservoir system is at about 80 percent capacity, which is average, while most reservoirs in central and northern New England are at normal capacity for this time of year.

River ice continues to accumulate in northern New England, where many rivers are covered with snow and ice. Elsewhere in the Northeast and Ohio River Basin, rivers are mostly ice free due to the warmer temperatures over the past month. "As long as the temperatures stay warmer than normal, river ice problems will not be a factor at locations where ice has not yet formed," noted Summer, who warned that the middle of the winter is usually the time when thick river ice has the potential to cause serious ice-jam flooding during the spring thaws. "We are not out of the woods yet, but the probability of forming thick ice during the winter of 1998 is more unlikely each day," he said.

The flood outlook estimates the potential for flooding across the eastern United States based on a current assessment of hydrometeorological factors that contribute to flooding. These factors include recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover, river ice conditions, stream flow, and forecasted precipitation. It should be recognized that heavy rainfall is the primary factor that leads to flooding and heavy or excessive rainfall can rapidly cause flooding in any month of the year, even when the flood potential is considered below average. A recent example of this is the March, 1997, Ohio River Basin flooding.