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Use procedures required for the verification of hydrologic forecasts for the short-range forecast horizon.
Forecast verification is required by NWS management to document improvements in hydrologic prediction services. The nationally-supported hydrologic forecast verification system is highly automated, but forecasters must be able to monitor system performance, know how to generate and interpret verification statistics when needed, and use them to improve hydrologic forecast operations for all time scales.
1. Know the roles of NWS field and headquarters offices in the National Hydrologic Forecast Verification Program.
2. Use the verification system to compute statistics and know how to interpret and apply them.
3. Account for the sources of error and uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts.
4. Provide basic support for verification software and databases.
Instructional Component 11.1: - Workshop: Hydrologic Forecast Verification/Validation. This workshop covers the use of hydrologic forecast verification procedures. Techniques for assessing the accuracy of hydrologic forecasts (both deterministic and ensemble-based) before they are issued are also covered.
Instructional Component 11.2 - Workshop: Statistical Hydrology. This workshop will give hydrologic forecasters a good working knowledge of the uncertainties in predicting hydrologic variables so they will be better prepared to function in two areas which will become increasingly important to the Hydrologic Services Program - verification and hydrologic forecasts which quantify uncertainty. This workshop will focus on the following:
Application of these principles to short-range deterministic forecasting (i.e., NWSRFS IFP) and extended-range ensemble forecasting (i.e., ESP) will be discussed. Statistical water supply may be discussed as an example of how statistics can be used in hydrological forecasting, but details of SWS will be covered the ESP/SWS workshop.
Instructional Component 11.3 - On-Station Training: Forecast Verification. Each field office will provide training on local and/or regional verification operations conducted in addition to those for the National Hydrologic Forecast Verification Program.
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